Olivia
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Igbrude Moses O.
@moscobite
Live and let live
Lagos Nigeria
Joined August 2010
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Yes
If you received a free invitation to visit Russia, would you agree ??
○ Yes
○ No
Great
In 1998, Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger spent 4 hours explaining why the smartest people in finance keep going broke.
It might be the most valuable finance lecture ever recorded:
1. The smartest people in finance went completely broke. Long-term Capital Management had 16 people with possibly the highest average IQ of any firm in the country, 350 to 400 combined years of experience, and most of their own net worth in the fund. They still went bankrupt. Buffett said if he ever wrote a book it would be called why smart people do dumb things.
2. Life and markets have no relation to sigmas. Buffett keeps a 1901 newspaper on his office wall. Northern Pacific went from $170 to $1,000 a share in a single day when two buyers accidentally cornered the stock. A brewer who had shorted it, facing a margin call, dove into a vat of hot beer. That man probably understood sigmas and knew such a move was impossible. Buffett has never wanted to end up in the vat.
3. Beta and sigmas tell you nothing about the risk of going broke. the LTCM team relied on mathematics and believed a six- or seven-sigma event could not touch them. they were wrong. history does not tell you the probabilities of future financial events. the real risk is a permanent blind spot in something crucial, often caused by knowing a great deal about something else.
4. To a man with a hammer, every problem looks like a nail. Munger's explanation for why brilliant people do dumb things. They learn a set of mathematical techniques and then twist every problem to fit the solution they already know. Combine that with a poor grasp of history, and you get people with advanced degrees blowing themselves up.
5. To make money they did not need, they risked money they did need. That is just plain foolish, Buffett says, no matter your IQ. Hand him a gun with a million chambers and one bullet, offer any sum to put it to his temple and pull once, and he will not do it. there is nothing on the upside that justifies the downside. people do this financially all the time without thinking.
6. The major banks all had risk models and had no idea what they owned. they met weekly at risk committees, printed all the statistics in neat columns, and did not have the faintest idea what risk they were carrying. The rare and essential quality is someone who can contemplate perils that have not popped up yet, the ones no past model contains.
7. A chief risk officer often just makes you feel good while you do dumb things. munger compares him to the Delphic oracle who convinced the Persian king to attack. he has a PhD and does advanced math, but he tortures reality to defend a model that does not hold under extreme conditions. all that computation makes you feel like you clobbered the risk when you have only clobbered your own head.
8. The whole quant risk system just changed the shape of the curve and kept going. Munger notes the business schools "improved" by throwing away the Gaussian curve and drawing a different one. They talk about fat tails now, but they still have no idea how fat to make them. he and Buffett always knew the tails were there, and used to roll their eyes at the risk-control people at Salomon.
9. Never risk what you have and need for what you do not have and do not need. Buffett will not explain to his family, who hold most of their net worth in Berkshire, that they went broke on a 100-to-1 gamble. Their returns get penalized 99 years out of 100 by being too conservative, and in the hundredth year they survive when others do not.
10. Build the business so that if the world stops working tomorrow, you have no problem. Berkshire double-layers its protection. First, they behave so no rational person questions their credit, then they hold so much liquidity that if the world suddenly hated their credit, they would not notice for months. It gives up higher returns 99% of the time and survives the one time others do not.
11. The real danger is a risk that has never happened before. Buffett wants someone who can imagine perils that have not yet appeared, the ones no model contains. The major institutions all had models, and that inability to envision the unprecedented is exactly what proved fatal. He and Munger spend a lot of time thinking about things that could hit them out of the blue that others leave out entirely.
12. Investing is simple, but not easy. The framework is not complicated. you did not need a high IQ to buy junk bonds in 2002 or stocks at low multiples in 1974. you just needed the courage of your convictions and the willingness to act when everyone else was paralyzed. Following logic rather than emotion is obvious, and yet some people find it almost impossible.
13. You cannot get rich with a weathervane. Buffett and Munger pay no attention to predictions about the economy or the market. People love predictions, entire industries are built on them, but it is like the king hiring a forecaster to read sheep guts. They have never made or avoided a single business purchase because of a macro view.
14. Name one super-wealthy economist. Munger's challenge. All these economists with 160 IQs spend their lives studying markets, and you cannot find one who got rich buying securities. Even Keynes tried to predict the credit cycle, broke a couple of times, and only did well once he switched to buying good businesses cheap and concentrating.
15. Focus only on what is important and knowable. Some things are important but unknowable, like whether someone drops a nuclear weapon tomorrow. Some things are knowable but unimportant. You narrow your attention to the small set of things that are both important and knowable, and you ignore everything else.
16. The market is there to serve you, not to instruct you. This is Graham's chapter eight, and Buffett calls it enormously important. When people talk about momentum or charts, they are saying the market instructs you. It does not. It just quotes prices. When it does something silly, you get a chance to act. Otherwise you go play bridge and check again tomorrow.
17. You can make a decision in five minutes or not at all. Buffett and Munger act fast because they rule out enormous territory in advance. Munger blots out startups entirely, and half a dozen other filters, so what remains is small enough to judge instantly. If they cannot decide in five minutes, they will not learn enough in five months to make up for going in deficient.
18. You can make a lot of money on a Sunday. Buffett said the calls you get on a Sunday, when things are truly screwed up, are the ones you make money on. All you have to do is be the collie and not the caller. You never get in a position where the other party can call your tune, so you can always play out your hand.
19. You are not right because others agree with you. Ben Graham said you are neither right nor wrong because the crowd disagrees. You are right because your facts and reasoning are right. Being contrarian has no special virtue over being a trend follower. All that matters is whether the facts are correct and the logic is sound.
20. Know where the edge of your circle of competence is. Buffett says the size of your circle does not matter. Knowing its perimeter does. You do not have to understand 90% of businesses. You just have to know something real about the few you actually put money into, and honestly recognize the ones you do not understand and walk away.
21. Intrinsic value is just the cash a business will produce, discounted back. Buffett thinks of every business as a bond with coupons that are not printed on it. Your job as an investor is to estimate those future coupons. If you cannot estimate them, like in a high-tech company, you pass. Investing is putting out money to get more back from what the asset produces, not from selling it to someone else.
22. The best businesses earn a royalty and need little capital. Coca-Cola sells a formula and takes a cut of every drink. Magazines like People operate on negative capital because subscribers pay in advance. The great businesses are the ones that can grow very large while needing almost no capital, which is why consumer businesses with pricing power are so valuable.
23. You only have to find one good idea, not twenty. Munger said you cannot find twenty deeply mispriced things, and Buffett agreed you do not need to. You do not have to have tons of good ideas in this business. You just need one good idea that is worth a ton, occasionally. For small sums, Buffett said he would have been 100% in Korea a few years earlier, where great companies traded at three times earnings.
24. The trick is measuring everything against your best opportunity. Munger calls this opportunity cost, the doctrine from the first page of the economics textbook that modern portfolio theory somehow ignored. Once you have found the best thing you understand, you measure every other option against it. The higher your default option, the more you can reject.
25. Modern portfolio theory is, in Munger's words, asinine. Most people will not find thousands of equally good things. They will find a few where one or two are far better than anything else they know. The right way to invest is to concentrate on your best opportunity cost, not to diversify into mediocrity because a model told you to.
26. Big opportunities must be seized, and seized big. Buffett says imagine you got a punch card with only twenty punches for your whole life, one per financial decision. You would think hard about each one, make fewer and better bets, and probably never use all twenty. The discipline of scarcity would make you rich. Dabbling in a bull market because it is easy is how people lose.
27. America has always been full of reasons to sell, and wrong every time. Coca-Cola went public in 1919 at $40, dropped to $19 within a year, and then faced the great depression, World War, and atomic bombs. One share reinvested is worth millions now. The country's opportunities have always won out over its problems. It is investors, not the economy, who tend to be their own worst enemy.
Is PH
The sort of fish I’m eating here eh. So soft and succulent.
True is bitter!
@tweetzbyidil @2froshtoo It was never a test. He hated u nd didn't want u anywhere near his daughter. What changed the whole narrative was his accident, nd u stepped up to help and even stayed overnight. His excuse for being a hater was what he called a test. He only liked u after the accident not before
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Yes
If you were offered a free invitation to visit Russia, would you accept it ?
1 - ○ Yes
2 - ○ No
Eno Sabi! Eno learn!!
Desmond Elliott is playing this politics like a kid.
Your godfather is not happy with you and your conduct during a recent crisis in the House.
Your godfather voiced out these concerns to the public.
And it was until this public exposé by your godfather, that you begin to realise your mistakes.
Which means, you're not self aware, and you're not even close to your godfather.
Even the president was aware of the trouble you caused in the House and your godfather nearly lost his job as Chief of Staff.
After all this, you came out and issued one fake, shallow apology with a lot of ifs.
That wasn't even, you proceeded to contest for your 4th stint at the Assembly. You've already done 12 years.
You proceeded without the approval and grace of your godfather who's in control of the party structure.
Today, during the elections, your party are playing their usual politics and you're running to the media to blackmail them.
12 years ago, when the party and your godfather favoured you; did you also run to the media to congratulate them?
They don't reveal anything.
@Dating_Diary2 Trust me, they do. People don't pay attention to little things like this and that's why you think they don't reveal character.
Relatively smart
for a human, but
not by AI standards
U are absolutely because at the Top there are just too many fake friends.
Don't cut off your broke friends because you are looking to build new relationship with rich strangers. Grow with your friends. The blessings of one should reflect on others.
It is not lonely at the top if you keep your friends.
It is really funny!
@Wizarab10 The funniest part is when she will tell you her prayers were the reasons for the success.
I no deny say prayers no dey work, but haba, my mama wants my success even more than you sef. 😂
Do U mean being a politician makes u not be honourable? Your words should be your Bond Dan.
PRESS STATEMENT
In the last 24 hours, social media has exploded over my interview with Mehdi Hassan, albeit with varied opinions. Let me set the record straight.
When I signed on to the privileged job granted to me by Mr. President, I was well aware of its implications. Selling ice cream, looking fine, and seeking the praises of men were never part of it. Some of the fiercest critics of my interview can not even stand local TV anchors. But the task of promoting and defending the President and his administration is what I do with ease and joy. I am prepared to appear before any interviewer, anywhere in the world, any day and at any time, to defend this government and its policies.
I have never, and will never, subscribe to ducking or dodging interviews on matters that concern promoting and defending the administration I was appointed to serve. It is the least of what is required of me.
Head to Head contacted me requesting an interview, stating that they wanted to challenge our government on security, the economy, and corruption. Nowhere in our almost six months of communication did they mention that they were going to challenge my past. If that had been their plan, ethically and professionally, they were supposed to inform me so I could prepare my response. But that’s okay, ethically, that is on them, not on me.
I refused to swallow the pill of Mehdi’s “opposition research-style journalism,” and even today, if you carefully compare what he read as quotes from organisations and groups, you will see that many were inaccurate and some were outright fake news. But I will leave that for another day.
As for what I said about President Tinubu in the past, I am glad those were things I said when I was in the opposition saddle with such zeal. It is all politics. Half of Donald Trump’s cabinet is made up of people who once spoke against him, and quite a number of people in our own cabinet also spoke against President Tinubu in the past. Those things do not bother him if you care to know.
The majority of the naysayers are members of the opposition and their sympathisers. It does not bother me one bit. Their temporary excitement over the interview has not lasted and will not last, because it does not take away their obvious problem of lack of vision, mission in conducting and managing a political party; yet they seek to manage Nigeria. Clearly they have no path to victory and no alternative policies or program for the Nigerian people. And if they say they do, they can as well go to head to head and be interrogated on that; as the saying in Hausa goes “Ga fili Ga doki”
I conclude by thanking the many Nigerians and non-Nigerians who sent in their commendations over my brave defence of our government in an interview where the anchor would hardly let you answer a question unless it suited his narrative.
I still have admiration and respect for Mehdi Hassan as arguably the best debater on the planet. I look forward to part two of the Head to Head interview, and I am glad that by then questions about my past will no longer be news so that we can focus on our administration’s policies, programs and what we have achieved so far.
Stay tuned.
– D.H Bwala
Special Adviser to President on Media and Policy Communication
(State House)
Saturday March 7, 2026
@Imranmuhdz No road project on the south south mentioned, the Benin bye pass and Benin -Sapele - Warri road is left undone. What is happening to our representatives at the FG level?
Na Wahoo
Jack Dorsey (who sold “X” formerly called Twitter to Elon Musk) said he will lay off 40% staff in his fintech company called Block.
From 10,000 to just under 6000 staff strength. He said he will hire more Senior AI engineers.
According to Jack Dorsey, “AI tools now allow his company Block to work with fewer people.” He said that AI tools can do a week’s worth of engineering job in just a fraction of the time.
Is the future bleak for the Job Industry? Is AI is a friend or foe? Will many find it hard to find jobs?
Why not u people leave Nigeria alone? Stay where u are, and let those who stay in Nigeria be. Are those in the UK not dying?
I think the subtle ideology behind most of these arguments is this: "A Nigerian elite lifestyle is more comfortable than a UK average worker's lifestyle."
Sit with that for a moment.
The Nigerian "elite" at N1.8 million salary a month is not living. They are governing themselves. Generator for electricity the state will not provide. Borehole for water the state will not deliver. Private school because public education has been abandoned. Private hospital because public healthcare may kill you. Private security because the streets are not safe. Estate levies on top of taxes that fund none of this.
And that is just the money. Nobody talks about the mental load. The time spent managing all of it. The emotional labour of being your own utility company, your own local government, your own safety net, every single day.
Then there is the currency. That N1.8 million is still naira. The same naira that has at some point lost over 70% of its value since 2022. Your salary did not move. The purchasing power did. Quietly. Consistently. In one direction.
Can this "elite" leave Lagos at 10pm and drive safely to Abuja the way a UK worker leaves London and drives to Scotland? We already know the answer.
And when the salary stops? The UK average worker has a pension that arrives, an NHS, a social safety net. A floor beneath them. The Nigerian "elite" has nearly nothing underneath. Just the next month's salary standing between them and the same reality everyone else is managing.
So when someone tells you that you can live comfortably in Nigeria on a big salary, what they are actually saying is that you can afford to privately reconstruct enough of what a functional state owes every citizen, to feel like you are living. Calling it comfort is the final dishonesty.
And before the "these things happen abroad too" response arrives, noted. The difference is not the existence of problems. Every country has them. The difference is that in a functional state, failure is the exception. In Nigeria it is the architecture. The average worker there is not privately funding what the state owes them just to feel normal. That is not a comparison of problems, but of systems.
That is an expensive cope. Not comfort. 🐝🐆
- @Jomilojju
Poverty is not good.
What are those money for?
HeartMattaz
Fear of failure and anxiety is a major cause: "won't it happen again?" In this case what is the best solution?
Fear of failure and anxiety is a major cause: "won't it happen again?" In this case what is the best solution?
@OGreat6 @Prince_Fynnz Stress can really do alot of damage to your sexual health, we know being a man can be difficult atimes, targets to meet and a lot more, try and take some time off.. Gracias!
Are you going to marry your sister? What is best if your best friend is not good for your sister? U are being childish here. Be mature, it is not your business.
This one is messed up
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