@arpitrage Considering the open source and Chinese models are generally only 2-4 months behind the frontier models at each step, we would know pretty quickly if Anthropic cracked RSI
@alexbronzini But if you concede that it’s not a major issue, then that means that probabilistically, she lost due to the high salience issues where voters disagreed with her. Losing 10k on I/P doesn’t make up for losing 1M each on economy and immigration.
@jonathanchait@ArmandDoma I don’t think that’s the most convincing explanation; I think people who claim to care are just acting and using it as a way to virtue signal, and the irony is that they don’t actually care enough to bother trying to understand what’s happening.
@dilanesper@rarestbarbie Not sure the shifts in views on the Iraq war and same-sex marriage were due to persuasion. States/SCOTUS legalized the latter and people realized it wasn’t a big deal. War is just generally unpopular especially when people see lots of deaths and little material benefit
@carney Conservatives like John want you to believe that they’re really smart, bastions of intellectual curiosity; but any time their positions are challenged, they want you to believe they’re really dumb and confused.
@LinkofSunshine It’s very sweet of you to describe that as a model instead of a crime against statistics. I never knew about this. She also crashed out a bunch on Twitter during the Biden debate debacle.
@ConroyForIL You’ve done nothing for our district. Accusing Quigley of not caring about us while you run a narcissistic vanity campaign is serious projection. “Oh but I volunteered for Habitat once.” You fucking douche.
@jonfavs I’d just say that if you’re going to insult everyone’s intelligence by claiming that Graham Platner is a good, decent man, you’d better hope he isn’t secretly trying to fuck a dozen different women behind his wife’s back.
Graham Platner isn’t just our best and only chance to beat Susan Collins, he’s a good, decent man who’s struggled and grown and is always trying to do better.
I hope everyone with reservations takes a little time to get to know the real life version of him, not what the algorithm throws in our faces. Clearly, that’s what so many people in Maine have done - from all different walks of life and political persuasions.
@TVietor08@JoeBanner13 It’s objectively untrue that everyone hates Hamas. Here’s how you know: you have a frequent guest on your podcast, and at your conferences, who says “Hamas is a thousand times better than Israel.”
@peterawolf It seems pretty clear that he doesn’t actually care about genocide, but just uses it as a partisan issue to create factional infighting within the Democratic Party
@StatisticUrban Should also point out that healthcare demand is largely inelastic, so it’s not a good indicator of the business cycle. It’s not surprising that so many people think the economy is bad when growth has been concentrated into a few sectors while everything else is in retrenchment.
@StatisticUrban The economy has barely created any jobs since Liberation day. In fact, subtracting jobs in healthcare and local government, the economy lost jobs. That’s not worse than the GFC, obviously, but it is in fact pretty bad.