mrbitcoinonly

别问我涨还是跌

[mrbitcoinonly @mrbitcoinonly]

@Murphychen888 hhhhhh 这次顺畅下跌不一定走完呢，结论是不是有点给太早，背离得并不是很充分，如果能看到四五万的价格，然后这里出现背离，结论会更solid一点

[mrbitcoinonly @mrbitcoinonly]

熊市开始的时候，比特币跌到了 9 万美元，韭菜打算 6 万抄底，后来跌到了 6 万美元，韭菜打算 4 万抄底，再后来跌到了 4 万美元，韭菜打算 3 万抄底，再后来就没有然后了

[Doctor Profit 🇨🇭 @DrProfitCrypto]

$BTC:

1. Shorted the top at 120k called for 60k
2. At 60k I said, bull trap starts, pump to 80k
3. At 80k I said, bull trap is over, dump to 60k
4. Now at 60k, looking forward to Target 3

Congratulations for everyone who listened

[Michael Saylor @saylor]

https://t.co/yeG4PgpjEq

[mrbitcoinonly @mrbitcoinonly]

@dampedspring 😁😁😁 我会持续观察，接下来可能会有比特币创新低而溢价不再创新低发生

[mrbitcoinonly @mrbitcoinonly]

@dampedspring 如果假设下一次牛市溢价最高只能到 2.5，这能算大幅扩张吗？我并不押注或者确信此时，但我个人认为前段时间比特币熊市反弹至 8 万美元的时候，溢价表现得有一定韧性。

[mrbitcoinonly @mrbitcoinonly]

@dampedspring 那我完全赞同，不过这个时间周期可能不会太长，6-12 个月

[mrbitcoinonly @mrbitcoinonly]

@dampedspring 基于此观点，mstr 在比特币触底之时，悲观情形，长期维持 mnav 无法 atm 普通股的方式交易，乐观情形是在下一轮牛市中溢价缓慢扩展但当然不会和去年一样高，mstr 普通股的盈亏比不算一个很坏的选项

[mrbitcoinonly @mrbitcoinonly]

@dampedspring 赞同会出现这种情况： mstr 普通股因为 mnav 折价而无法 atm，同时 strc 低于 100 无法发行，最终只有选择卖出比特币以支付股息。然而这不是螺旋往下，熬过冬天之后比特币价格回升，一切又开始慢慢向着相反方向前进，这个冬天可能导致 btc yield 暂停，但它不代表死亡螺旋

[mrbitcoinonly @mrbitcoinonly]

agree

[BitQuant @BitQua]

I have friends who were early Bitcoin investors. I met them in 2014 at various Bitcoin meetups. None of them have X accounts, and they often make fun of me for having one.

One of them owns a hotel in Greece, in Halkidiki. He’s living his best life, and from time to time we meet at his hotel.

Recently, he was joking with me about posting on X and trying to convince people that Bitcoin is the best asset of our lifetime. He said: “You can’t change people’s karma. Everyone creates their own aura. If someone lives in an aura of poverty, you can’t change that, even if you forcefully give them Bitcoin. A day later, Trump will tweet something negative, they’ll sell it, and then gamble the money on who will become President in 2028.”

I asked him, “What about those who have an energy of prosperity?”

He replied: “Those who have an energy of prosperity won’t pay much attention to Bitcoin’s short-term price action. We became this successful because when we discovered Bitcoin, the flow of information wasn’t this overwhelming. All we had was each other, and no one was constantly using psychological pressure to try to shake us out.”

I asked him to create an X account and help people who, like him, started from less than zero. (By the way, he didn’t start from zero - he started with debt inherited from his family line.)
I suggested that helping others break free from financial slavery could be a way of giving back to the world that had given him so much.

He refused, even though he has plenty of free time. He said that society often destroys the very people who contribute the most when doing so serves its own interests. As an example, he pointed to Saylor and the way the Bitcoin community treat him.

[mrbitcoinonly @mrbitcoinonly]

币圈，真正有价值的，除了比特币也就只有稳定币，以及建立在稳定币体系上的应用。

[Rukawa Ð @show4653]

-ADA 創辦人 因為幣價崩跌 要去休息了
-ETH V神 幣價崩 要去寫小說了
-DOT 創辦人 也不想待在市場 要去玩音樂了......

這就是現在幣圈公鏈創辦人的情況........

[Benjamin Cowen @benjamincowen]

How is the pattern more prevalent for BTC?

SPX has gone through four year cycles for decades before BTC was even created.

No one is saying you have to sell anything. We are just saying to expect major lows to occur in BTC approximately every four years.

You are saying believing in that is "anti-BTC"

People who believe stocks bottom every 4 years are not "anti-stocks."

Markets are allowed to go down sometimes.

I hope you reconsider your view. Especially considering that you told people that my views were dead wrong coming into this year.

BTC did not follow the ISM. It did not follow M2. It did not follow any of that stuff. How long until we can admit maybe the four year cycle has some validity?

If it ever breaks, it would probably be for a bad reason, not a good reason.

So I would say to root against the 4 year cycle would actually be more detrimental than rooting for it.

[mrbitcoinonly @mrbitcoinonly]

@_43A6 @evilcos 木马代码是 base64 编码的，你是不是在终端执行的时候输了sudo密码，给了 shell 最高权限

[Benjamin Cowen @benjamincowen]

The people worth listening to in the next bull market are the ones who did not abandon you in the bear

[mrbitcoinonly @mrbitcoinonly]

最该感谢比特币还没有进入超级周期，没有进入奇点时刻，还有四年周期的，从来都不是大户，而是一个个迷你散户，没有熊市去泡沫化这个过程，散户是没法很舒服的，比特币对散户够好了，比特币如果进入超级周期，持有起来的体感不一定会比 QQQ 要好多少。

[mrbitcoinonly @mrbitcoinonly]

微策略囤比特币，为什么在以前没有囤黄金的公司？当然也有，那是各国央行，而个人想囤黄金你只能买到纸黄金，美联储能从地底拿黄金给你实物吗，你收不到。而比特币不一样的是你可以真正持有比特币，这是为什么微策略与众不同。

[mrbitcoinonly @mrbitcoinonly]

比特币这种稀缺品价格长期看共识，没有上限，只看资金量投入，而短期看供需，情绪影响供需，恐慌与贪婪都是情绪。熊市出清情绪，但这不是一个必然，所以这是四年周期比较神奇的自我实现。

[mrbitcoinonly @mrbitcoinonly]

@wufantouzi 为啥要把 mstr 看做是杠杆比特币呢？

[mrbitcoinonly @mrbitcoinonly]

🤣昨天说你不配代表 bitget 只是个前台，今天说你代表 bitget 不能说看空比特币

[Gracy Chen @Bitget @GracyBitget]

@wolfyxbt 小狼喊得更低为什么你不被骂，就因为你不是交易所的吗。
(🥹委屈.jpg)

[mrbitcoinonly @mrbitcoinonly]

@dampedspring @Matt51459838 @pinkhasov 我和你对比特币和 MSTR 的价格观点几乎相同，但我认为比特币在 4 万美元开头触底之时，微策略大约在 80 美元附近的时候会是非常值得购买，你是不是故意发布看空帖子好让比特币和微策略早点跌到那样的适合建仓的价格🤣