#BTC#crypto
If liquidity increases, this is usually positive for crypto. If liquidity decreases, this usually puts pressure on Bitcoin and digital assets.
TGA is the U.S. Treasury’s account at the Federal Reserve. It is basically like the U.S. government’s bank account. When the TGA rises, it means the government is collecting money, for example through taxes or selling bonds. This pulls liquidity out of the market. That is why a rising TGA is usually negative for crypto. When the TGA falls, it means the government is spending money, and liquidity flows back into banks and markets. This is usually positive for crypto.
Bank Reserves are the reserves that banks hold at the Federal Reserve. When these reserves rise, it means the banking system has more liquidity. This is good for markets and is usually bullish for crypto. But if reserves start falling sharply, it means liquidity is decreasing, which can be negative for crypto.
Reverse Repo / ON RRP is a place where money market funds temporarily park cash at the Federal Reserve. When Reverse Repo was very high, a decline was positive because it released cash and brought liquidity back into the market. But if Reverse Repo becomes very low or almost empty, this means that this “liquidity buffer” can no longer help much. In that case, any large bond issuance can pull liquidity directly from banks and markets.
Treasury Net Issuance means the amount of new U.S. government bonds that the Treasury sells to the market, after subtracting old bonds that are being rolled over. If issuance is large, the market needs a lot of money to buy these bonds, which pulls liquidity away from stocks and crypto. That is why rising Treasury Net Issuance is usually negative for crypto. But if issuance is lower than expected, this is better for markets and can be bullish for crypto.
The best scenario for crypto is when the TGA falls, Bank Reserves rise or remain stable, Treasury Net Issuance is lower than expected, and the Federal Reserve is not draining liquidity from the market.
$btc $ETH $SOL #crypto
BTC must stabilize at 95k- 100k before the rotation to altcoins begins. It's not a quick action, it needs time and trust in the BTC price stability.
For altseason, a dominance of 58% is the start, 54% is good, and below that it gets parabolic.
Past cycles have shown that the time from the bottom before the halving to the peak after the halving has always gotten longer. This means this cycle could also be longer, 1200 days could be realistic. That would mean the end for BTC could be March 2026, where we might see the second peak. 155k is possible. Until then, we could be in a rotation to altcoins.
At dominance below 54%, rotation to ETH and SOL. Below 50%, to other smaller altcoins. Below 45%, everywhere possible, including memes... And after that, it will be time for rotation back to BTC for the second peak, and then the bear market....
🚨BREAKING: Trump to sign an executive order Thursday allowing crypto, real estate & private equity in 401(k) retirement accounts 👀💼
This could open the floodgates for MASSIVE crypto adoption via institutional retirement funds. 🔥
#Bitcoin#Crypto#Trump