I don't recommend anyone scramble to move their funds to new wallets today. But we should take the risks to cryptography from AI-accelerated math seriously, and minimize our exposure to not just quantum-vulnerable cryptography, but also potentially AI-vulnerable cryptography.
The core new area of risk from this viewpoint is, unfortunately, ML-DSA / FHE / lattices.
(and it's also another reason, along with quantum, why ECDSA might fall even faster than expected, hence the "fresh address" recommendation)
So far most people have been in the mode of thinking "elliptic curves broken, hashes safe, lattices safe". But there is a good chance that the concrete security of lattices will take serious hits from the next two years of AI math.
The basic threat model is: factoring is something that naively takes 2^(n/2) time, but over decades smart people have found and optimized number field sieves, and degraded that to 2^O(n^(1/3)), which is why RSA keys and signatures need to be ~400 bytes (and not 64 bytes). What if there are skeletons in the closet like that, both for elliptic curves and lattices, that we are simply not smart enough to discover - but bots soon will be?
This is a major part of the reason why for the past year ethereum's lean roadmap has been going in the "hash-only" direction: no lattices, no ML-DSA, no Falcon, no lattice-based commitments inside ZK proofs, etc. Signatures in lean ethereum are all hash-based, either WOTS or SPHINCS-.
For signatures and proofs, we already know how to go hash-only. The bigger challenge is for *public-key encryption* - and this goes far beyond blockchains. Secure communication, anonymizing protocols, lots of things need public-key encryption.
And unfortunately there are long-standing mathematical theorems showing why public-key encryption cannot be done with hashes alone. You have to have some kind of trapdoor object that has at least one form of usable "structure" - either group theory (incl. isogenies) or lattices or code-based or potentially in the future even more newfangled and spooky things (local mixing?). But for anything that has structure, you should assume that AI will make at least some progress in breaking that structure. Here, one reasonable inference is that if you want to make something plausibly long-term secure, multiply the key sizes by 10.
To me that's a very plausible world and something not at all extreme to predict. If AI will bring us 50 years of math in 2 years, then that 50 years of math may very plausibly include a "naive factoring -> GNFS" level of improvement to our ability to break lattices. In that world, lattices will still exist, but they will have to be significantly bigger to guarantee the same level of safety.
And at those new larger sizes, hash-based constructions will beat lattice-based constructions on concrete efficiency in every use case where hash-based constructions are possible at all.
Theoretically, of course it's possible that hashes are broken too (eg. P = NP would imply that). But I think P = NP is very unlikely. And intuitively, it's much more likely that a mathematical object has exactly no exploitable structure (like hashes are intended to), than that a mathematical object has exactly ~3 forms of exploitable structure (for elliptic curves: associativity, Schoof, pairings) and not some secret fourth form of structure we have not yet discovered that greatly degrades its security (for elliptic curves, ECDLP and pairing security). Similar for LWE, SVP, RLWE and the zoo of lattice problems.
For this reason, we do not yet see any reason to worry and start padding the byte size of hashes (if we start to worry more, we would pad the round count first before doing anything to the byte size).
Concrete TLDR, my own personal views:
* Hash-based > lattice-based, in those situations where hash-based is possible at all
* For anything lattice-based, be much more paranoid on param sizes. Remember that blockchains are only a small portion of the cryptography story; this point goes far beyond blockchains and applies to eg. access to websites, secure messaging, Tor / VPNs ...
* For privacy protocols, strongly favor NOT putting encrypted notes onchain. Instead, send them offchain through some third-party mechanism.
* If it's not difficult for you, keeping your funds in addresses which have not yet been used to make a transaction is a good idea. If it's easy for you, do it. **But be careful about migrations; I personally have lost more money in botched migrations than I have lost in all hacks combined**.
* For multisig wallets, doing confirmations offchain is better than onchain, because this way the signatures of signer wallets do not get exposed to the public, so if ECDSA falls to AI much faster than expected, at least the multisig "gracefully degrades" to a 1-of-1 where the 1 is whoever was gathering the signatures - a much better place to be than "anyone can take the money"
https://t.co/oVjwZog2lL
@BillAckman@NYCMayor Sup William, maybe just maybe - he also wanted to lower the price of property. Maybe reduced tax revenue in the name cheaper property city wide isn’t horrible who knows!
Yesterday, Flock cameras alerted on 4,144 sex offenders, 2,151 stolen cars, 1,687 wanted people, 158 missing persons/kids, and most importantly, an amber alert.
Children were rescued in Dothan AL, Charlotte NC, North Kingstown RI, and more.
This is every day. See some of the news stories below:
Some features:
• Triggers (crons, webhooks), memory, shared files
• Connectors for a company brain
• Agent browser support
• Shareable web app artifacts
• Multi-player projects
Like many things we do at YC, it’s an experiment. It’s early and has bugs. But it’s been surprisingly useful for us so far, and we’re excited to share it and get feedback from the community.
If you want to host it yourself, try telling your coding agent of choice to “deploy https://t.co/yKmDDWRIcX”
@broadglow Strange take.
Ask 100 people worldwide to name a prediction market and they say polymarket.
Kalshi entire moat was some regulation, shitty moat. All roads lead home to poly
@layeredstacks Generate a seed on modern device ledger, trezor add a 25th word/ passphrase you will be okay.
You could also generate a private key yourself, when you buy these devices that’s the job your outsourcing (the ability to randomize a seed)
@itscoachgoodman@COLDCARDwallet What a nightmare. Stay strong, it will all come back to you and more.
Seeing as you have a platform, get together with other victims and call for compensation from @COLDCARDwallet and perhaps set up a communal donation address where we can send crypto and support!
The point of a startup is to make usable technology for others. When you make software, you have to watch at least 10 people use it. Sit next to them and say absolutely nothing. Force yourself to marinate in the failure of your product design.
Every version 1 of any software will be absolutely destroyed by first interaction with users. You need to watch your new creation be absolutely misunderstood by users to reform version 1 into the one that actually works.
There is only one path: figuring out where the sharp edges, the places people get caught, the assumptions you make as a builder that turn out to be wrong, and then relentlessly sanding it down so that anyone can use it.
That is good design. That is the key to a good product. There is no shortcut for this.
WATCH USERS AND CRINGE AND THEN FIX IT.
SAND DOWN THE EDGES.
Focus on the experience first than the technology not the other way around.
Know your buyer before you create something to sell.
A great piece of advice for today’s crowd enthralled with vibe coding who aren’t seeing any monetary benefit. https://t.co/nsrFF19O4H