If it is higher Inflation driving high-interest rates, the discount rate goes up (Inflation premium) but companies without pricing power get squeezed, and margins and cashflow decrease resulting in the decrease in value of a company.
Fundamentally, the driver of interest rate is Real Growth and Expected Inflation. When the interest rate goes up,
it means people expect an increase in real growth or/and an increase in expected inflation.
If it is higher Real growth driving high-interest rates, not only the discount rate goes up but revenue growth picks up (more in economically dependent co) resulting in higher margins and higher expected free cash flow. This rather leads to an increase in the value of a company.
Therefore, we should consider three things while using models:
1. Reality is the ultimate update (We should constantly use a feedback loop and update the model)
2. Consider the Cartographer (Know the model maker)
3. Maps can influence territories.
A map is not the Territory. Maps are useful to the extent they are explanatory and predictive. We run into problems when our knowledge becomes of the map, rather than the underlying territory it describes.
If you’re looking at a phone more than someone’s eyes, you’re doing the wrong thing; Tim Cook explains,
"Apple never wanted to maximize user time. We’re not motivated to do that from a business point of view, and we’re certainly not motivated from a values point of view "
"I followed a golden rule, Namely that whenever a new observation or thought came across me, which was opposed to my general results, to make a memorandum of it without fail and at once"
- Charles Darwin
Such thoughts are far more apt to escape memory.
Confirmation Bias: Once we have formed a view, we embrace information that confirms that view while ignoring, information that casts doubt on it. We pick out those bits of data that make us feel good as they confirm our prejudices. We become prisoners of our assumptions.
Learn from history and other disciplines and make wise connections. When you later see something, ask, “Have I seen this before, or has this happened before and what happened then?”
“What normally happens in such situations? Why should this be any different?”