The King of Arcadia

#BTC

[Giovanni's BTC_POWER_LAW @Giovann35084111]

I don't understand why people like plausible good sounding story when Bitcoin data tell us a story much better than anybody in Bitcoin world ever told.

I'm actually saying that Bitcoin is much better than sound money and deflation or inflation are irrelevant to Bitcoin. The network effects trumps everything else.

It is math, guys, not a bunch of words.

The Test: What If Inflation Disappeared Tomorrow?
Booth's model predicts:

Technology still deflates at 5-10%/year
Bitcoin purchasing power grows 5-10%/year
Bitcoin price growth slows to near zero (no inflation to "fight")

Power law model predicts:

Network adoption continues (β_A = 3.05)
Metcalfe effects continue (β_M = 1.84)
Bitcoin continues P(t) ~ t^5.69
Returns still 30-50%/year (network-driven, not inflation-driven)
Historical evidence: Bitcoin grew 100%+/year during LOW inflation (2009-2013) and during HIGH inflation (2021-2022). Growth rate tracks adoption curve (t^5.69), NOT inflation rate.

What Booth Gets Right

To be fair, Booth is right that:
Technology creates abundance (deflationary pressure)
Prices SHOULD fall in sound money

Bitcoin allows this deflation to express itself (unlike fiat)
But he misses:
The MAGNITUDE of Bitcoin's growth is network effects (99%), not deflation (1%)

Bitcoin is ACTIVE (growing network), not PASSIVE (measuring stick)

The mechanism is epidemic spreading + Metcalfe, not just "fixed supply"
How Booth SHOULD Frame It
Current framing:

"Bitcoin is sound money that reveals technological deflation. Everything gets cheaper in BTC terms."
Correct framing:

"Bitcoin is a growing network (t^5.69) whose value increases via adoption dynamics (epidemic spreading) and network effects (Metcalfe). Additionally, being fixed-supply money, it captures technological deflation. The network growth dominates (99.9% of returns), deflation is a small bonus (0.1%)."

Bottom Line

Does Booth explain Bitcoin's growth?
No. He frames it as passive "sound money" revealing deflation

Misses network effects entirely (your β_A × β_M)
Attributes Bitcoin's 1,000,000x growth to technology deflation (maybe 3x at most)

Gets direction right, magnitude catastrophically wrong
The irony:
Booth is right that tech deflation is powerful
But wrong that it explains Bitcoin

Bitcoin's power law growth (t^5.69) DWARFS tech deflation by 1000x

Network effects > technology deflation > monetary inflation

The power law reveals what Booth misses:

Bitcoin isn't growing because things are getting cheaper. Bitcoin is growing because the network is spreading via epidemic dynamics and scaling via Metcalfe's Law. The technological deflation is a TINY bonus on top of massive network-driven growth.

Booth confuses the measuring stick (Bitcoin reveals deflation) with the rocket ship (Bitcoin grows via network effects).

[Tips Excel @gudanglifehack]

My father is 83 years old and has studied US stocks for almost 52 years.
He summarized some simple rules for beginners:
1. Price falls 5% → Hold
2. Price falls 15% → Buy 10%
3. Price falls 25% → Buy 25%
4. Price rises 5% → Continue holding
5. Price rises 15% → Continue holding
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(Save this later).

[Blaze @browomo]

I live in New York. My OpenClaw runs on a $35 Raspberry Pi + MacMini on my mom's kitchen in Ohio. Last month that little box made more than my salary in Manhattan

It all started when my mom complained that the internet in the house was going to waste. She pays $60 a month and only uses it for recipes and FaceTime calls

I came home for the weekend, pulled an old Raspberry Pi out of the closet, and set it on top of the fridge next to a Florida magnet and a photo of the cat. Connected it to my mom's Wi-Fi, installed OpenClaw, and gave it 1 task: monitor 1 wallet on Polymarket and send me a Telegram message every time it enters a position

Setup took 1 evening. My mom asked what the little box was. I said it was something for work. She shrugged and put a napkin on top of it

The 1st week I checked every hour. Notification comes in, the wallet entered, I copy. Another one, it exited, I check the result. Everything ran like clockwork

The 2nd week I checked once a day

By the 3rd I forgot to check on Monday. Opened it Tuesday and saw plus $380

In New York I pay $3,200 for a studio with no windows, spend $18 on lunch, and stand on the subway for 40 minutes each way. My education cost $200K. Salary after taxes: $4,100

And in Ohio a $35 box sits between a napkin and a magnet. It does not pay rent, does not eat, does not sleep, and does not complain. It just runs 24/7 on my mom's internet for $60 a month

Last month it brought in $4,700. I brought in $4,100

My most profitable employee costs less than lunch and lives on my mom's kitchen

Here is the wallet it copies. You can open it and see the full trade history yourself: → https://t.co/oqaPv5vr36

And if you do not have a Raspberry Pi or an evening to spend on setup there is a Telegram bot that does the exact same thing. It sends a signal the moment the wallet enters a position. No hardware, no OpenClaw, no mom's Wi-Fi: → https://t.co/6oJMPDWj4z

My mom called yesterday. Asked if she could move the box because it was in the way of a pot

I said: mom, that box pays for your internet and my lunch. Do not touch it

She said fine. But she did not remove the napkin

[Giovanni's BTC_POWER_LAW @Giovann35084111]

This version of the power law is free online. Link in the comments.

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