Markus Schomer

Financial market economist keeping a keen eye on everything macro

[Markus Schomer @mschomer]

QED on the absence of serious economists in the Trump administration

Trump Administration Live Updates: Hassett Defends Firing of Top Labor Official Over Weak Jobs Numbers https://t.co/TPr63FGj2M via @NYTimes

[Markus Schomer @mschomer]

“I don’t see how serious members of the economics profession can stay in his administration”. The issue is, there are no serious members of the economics profession in the administration.

[Lawrence H. Summers @LHSummers]

Firing the head of a key government agency because you don’t like the numbers they report, which come from surveys using long established procedures, is what happens in authoritarian countries not democratic ones. This is surely not the most serious threat to our democracy that @realDonaldTrump poses, but it is the one closest to what we economists do. I don’t see how serious members of the economics profession can stay in his administration.

[Markus Schomer @mschomer]

The debate about achieving greater defense independence is gathering steam. The EU needs a Defense Union (with a 2% spending mandate), and frontline states like Germany and Poland need their own nuclear weapons to increase the deterrence against Russia.

[Guntram Wolff @GuntramWolff]

Rüstungsindustrie: Von Russland überholt, von den USA entkoppelt – So verteidigt sich Europa jetzt selbst. Kommentar zur Stärkung der europäischen Rüstungsindustrie mit @ABurilkov - und warum auch bei einer Präsidentin Harris dies dringend notwendig ist https://t.co/LqFA39GCgZ

[Markus Schomer @mschomer]

Stunning incitement to violence and destruction against a friendly country. I am surprised LSE condones such statements. One may disagree with Germany’s reliance on Russian energy. But this is not the way to make that point.

[Luis Garicano 🇪🇺🇺🇦 @lugaricano]

Ukraine's destruction of Nordstream 2 is entirely justified. The country is fighting for its existence!!!!
Europe should grow some guts and some understanding of what is at stake. And Germany needs to lay off this ridiculous criminal procedure. It is outrageous.

[Markus Schomer @mschomer]

@pinkun @cjsouthwell1902 @paddyjdavitt @SamSeaman8 I wished you guys would be more positive. We are all Norwich fans. Have been and will be. Irrespective what happened last season or what will happen this season. Give team and new coach time and focus on what went well and not what went wrong. ComeOnYouYellows

[Markus Schomer @mschomer]

Amazing that less than 44% is enough to win a mandate in the UK. Is that a
Democratic outcome?

[Sky News @SkyNews]

BREAKING: Sadiq Khan has won a historic third term as London mayor.

All 14 of the London constituencies have now been declared.

Mr Khan has won with 43.7% of the vote. His Conservative rival Susan Hall took 32.6%.

https://t.co/ArADamaoNw

📺 Sky 501

[Sky News @SkyNews]

BREAKING: Sadiq Khan has won a historic third term as London mayor.

All 14 of the London constituencies have now been declared.

Mr Khan has won with 43.7% of the vote. His Conservative rival Susan Hall took 32.6%.

https://t.co/ArADamaoNw

📺 Sky 501

[Markus Schomer @mschomer]

📰IN THE NEWS: ECB’s Rehn on discussion whether bank can cut rates before Fed does “the ECB is not the Fed’s ‘13th Federal District’”. If that’s so, cut in April! Economy is in recession, CPI forecasted to average 2.1% in 2025. And real rates almost = US. https://t.co/DIR4qxOI2y

[Markus Schomer @mschomer]

📰IN THE NEWS: Sad end to a courageous life. He could have stayed in Germany but he wanted to continue to be a thorn in Putin’s side. I bet his sacrifice will not be forgotten and his name will live on for a long time, especially in Russia / via @NYTimes https://t.co/jpKMishvcT

[Markus Schomer @mschomer]

📰IN TH NEWS: Strong start to the Q1 US GDP forecasting season; Atlanta Fed GDPNow is indicating continuation of the strong 3% growth trend we saw in Q4 / https://t.co/o9uSjuEQxl # via @AtlantaFed

[Markus Schomer @mschomer]

Of course, the only evidence for that statement is that fact that it didn't happen under Trump. But that's of course the same as blaming Trump for Covid because it, well, happened while he was in office. I'd say enjoy the first 2/3 of this post but forget the ending.

[Markus Schomer @mschomer]

It looked like like a really good post about the US elections. Up until the end when the real Niall Ferguson shines through, blaming Biden for Ukraine, Hamas and even the not yet happened Chinese invasion of Taiwan, while claiming neither would have happened under Trump.

[Niall Ferguson @nfergus]

"Every four years, as the U.S. embarks on another ten-month political race to elect its president, I am reminded of the Wacky Races. Each time, it just gets wackier." As this presidential election year gets underway, it's both wacky and scary: https://t.co/WXFZDNjMRq

[Markus Schomer @mschomer]

📰IN THE NEWS: Great example of a country successfully managing its path in a divided global economy, but also shows how ineffective current global economic governance is / Vietnam's 'bamboo diplomacy' shifts into higher gear - Reuters https://t.co/xj5MA1nIWX

[Markus Schomer @mschomer]

📰IN THE NEWS: Signs of ‘Consumer Fatigue’ starting to move conversation about US growth outlook in the direction of TCB’s 2024H1 recession call / Americans Are Finally Turning Frugal After Splurging Over Summer https://t.co/fiLKMlsDAH

[Markus Schomer @mschomer]

📰IN THE NEWS: Amazing! Major DM a central banks haven’t even started the next easing cycle and market chatter is who will be last. I’d rather look at who could be first: my pick would be Bank of Canada

[Bloomberg @business]

There's growing expectation that the Bank of England could be the last major central bank to start cutting rates

Don't be so sure, says Dominic Bunning of HSBC https://t.co/KaYKrfGpps

[Markus Schomer @mschomer]

📰IN THE NEWS: Wait, does this say New York City beat the Netherlands in legalizing marijuana? / Wait, Legal Cannabis Is Finally Coming to the Netherlands? https://t.co/JCg0vY7utA

[Markus Schomer @mschomer]

GLOBAL CENTRAL BANK WATCH: Picking up charting key macro news again after getting settled in my new environs. BoC continues to deserve high marks for consistent and credible policy and communication. Real policy rates at +1.5% are only marginally behind the US, significantly above the 0.6% our (GDP-weighted) DM proxy is showing, and it's a great deal higher than Canada's -0.78% average during the prev. cycle. It surely is "sufficiently restrictive" and opens the door for rate cuts early next year to prevent real rates from rising any further #canada #centralbanks #macroeconomics

[Markus Schomer @mschomer]

Amazing how helpless the govt seems in opioid fight. ODs up 60% despite $20 bil. program. Add this to the list of rising fiscal pressures in the coming years / The opioid crisis has gotten much, much worse despite Congress’ efforts to stop it - POLITICO https://t.co/aJd4UvYXs7

[Markus Schomer @mschomer]

📰 IN THE NEWS: Risk of escalating conflict in the Middle East should amplify FOMC members already calling for an end of Fed rate hikes / Fed's Bostic sees no more U.S. rate hikes, no recession https://t.co/0xmPeM0L3Z