Msktime

[Afshine Emrani MD FACC @afshineemrani]

Here's my secret. My first day in practice, I started with a networth of minus $1,000,000. I'd lost to the stock market all the money I earned working 80-hour weeks during residency and fellowship. I had loans and loans and more loans. But, every morning I entered the hospital at 6 a.m. and every night I left work around midnight, the nurses would ask me the same question: "How do you always have the biggest smile on your face?" I couldn't express the answer then as well as I can now. The secret is Judaism's three cardinal laws of happiness: 1- Start with gratitude; 2- Find your gift; 3- Give it away. This formula is the secret to true, deep happiness. 1- Start each day with gratitude for all you've been given. Talk about your blessings, not your problems. Start by feeling how much you owe the world, not how much you're owed. #ModehAniLefanecha. 2- What is your purpose in life? Why are you here? Why did God trust you with this life? Hint: To help others. To mend a broken world. #TikkunOlam Each of us has a unique gift in how we can accomplish this task. Mine is medicine. Yours may be singing, art, defending, raising children, nursing, comforting... It's up to you to find your gift and through it live a meaningful and purpose-driven life. 3- #Tzedakah Give your gift away. It must be money you've earned, but also your time, talent, love, effort. Give your gift away. Not all of it. Judaism requires 10%. Anyone can do this. Everyone can find things they are thankful for, right this minute. Everyone has a talent that makes them unique. Everyone can give without wanting anything back. When you live in sync with these three Jewish principles (and you don't have to be Jewish), your life becomes so much more than a mechanical day to day struggle. This is how I fought clinical depression and won. So now, I give you my secret as a gift.

[Mark Kaplan @markkaplan20]

This is the food pyramid I ate to heal myself.

[Sovainashell @sovainashell]

@belizardd you have just described a gambling addiction, not an investment problem.

[Sovainashell @sovainashell]

@belizardd Ask yourself why you cannot stop “investing.” Is it investing or a gambling addiction?

[Howard Luks MD @hjluks]

The narrowing is the slow shrinking of what your body allows you to do — or what you assume your body can or should be doing at your age. You used to carry four grocery bags. Now you take two. You used to sit on the floor with the grandkids. Now you sit on the couch.

[Jesse Myers @Croesus_BTC]

STRC down to $82.6 today. Here's my read:

1. Strategy is fine. If everything stays as is, they can pay STRC dividends for 32 years. If BTC appreciates at ~2% CAGR, they can pay dividends indefinitely.

2. Why the sell-off? This appears to be a liquidation cascade.

Over the last 6 months, the narrative became that STRC volatility was reducing, and price began to spend all its time in $99-100 range.

This invites leverage. If you expect the price to always be north of $95, you can take on 20x leverage with your portfolio to buy more STRC and dramatically increase the yield on your portfolio.

This works great, until it doesn't.

STRC is designed as a free-market asset. When attention shifted to SATA and STRC price flagged, it may have raised the attention of opportunistic short-selling hedge funds.

By shorting aggressively, they could push the price down and start triggering margin calls and liquidations from folks who aggressively levered up their STRC positions.

The price action today is a clear liquidation cascade, rapidly pushing prices lower, in turn triggering additional liquidations.

3.
What happens now? The market will heal itself.

Opportunistic hedge funds will recognize that this is a firesale and the fundamentals are unchanged for STRC and step in as buyers. Shorts will close, becoming buyers. Individuals are getting a tremendous entry price for long-term holding STRC shares.

Buyers at this level will get ~13.7% effective yield. If STRC trades back to $100 and they sell, they get an easy +18% return.

4.
What will Strategy do?

Strategy will likely increase the dividend rate on June 30 - maybe to 11.75% but possibly to 12%. Buyers at the current price level then would get 14.2% effective yield from that point forward.

Strategy may also step in to buy STRC shares back. They could do this by issuing new shares of MSTR (currently at 1.14 mNAV) or by taking on traditional debt and deploying those funds to buy discounted STRC shares on the market.

If/when STRC trades back to $100, Strategy could then re-issue those STRC shares. The ~$15 delta per share could be used to buy BTC as pure accretion to MSTR holders, with no net change to amplification.

No doubt that Saylor has already at least considered this, and it wouldn't surprise me if they're currently doing this.

5.
In summary...

The market is freaked out that this depeg is like Terra/Luna... but this is not an asset like that. Strategy's balance sheet determines whether STRC continues to receive dividend payments... and Strategy's balance sheet is completely unchanged.

This is a leverage wipeout.

From this, the market will learn that Digital Credit is mostly very low volatility. But because it is a free market asset, the longer that a Digital Credit instrument trades within a tight range to par... the more leverage will inevitably pile up as people get greedy.

And that creates the conditions for a leverage wipeout depeg. Following that, the instrument will make its way back to par value as the market heals itself and recognizes that the dividend payments will continue uninterrupted because the issuer's balance sheet is unaffected.

[Camus @newstart_2024]

“When America says you can be whatever you want… it really means go grind yourself to death chasing money.”

Tim Dillon broke it down clearly.

People are sold this nonstop hustle, be a boss, build an empire, work yourself into the ground, as the only route to happiness.

The real translation? Exhaust yourself… while someone else relaxes on their boat.

What do you think, are people being sold a fake version of success?

[BasedBiohacker @BasedBiohacker]

you should really listen to this jamie dimon monologue on work efficiency:

[Tony Otoa @Comrade_Otoa]

I always come back to this presentation.

[dank @cptdankkk]

Charlie Sheen says he relied on Xanax, alcohol and “time travel” naps to survive a typical day on set while addicted to crack

“I was doing this thing where I was partying, hitting the fucking pipe, either girls or porn or both or whoever showed up. Come on in. There's plenty to go around”

“I felt like I was time traveling from 1 a.m. to 7. It felt like 15 minutes. Whereas 9 a.m. to midnight felt normal. Wow, we have plenty of time to do everything. And then the hours I really needed to settle in and enjoy just vanished”

“I got someone banging on my door. ‘Dude, you're late. What the fuck?’ And I'm still fucking sideways. So I'd pop a couple shots or like half a Xanax or something”

“I would literally do this thing. It was a 15 minute, 20 minute nap where I would just hit the pillow. I'd try to meditate with a body just vibrating from crack all night. I'm trying to fucking time travel. I'm trying to levitate”

“Then I would hit the shower and I'd say, ‘Okay, I only have to navigate from this shower to the next shower and that's about 11, maybe 12 hours’”

“And then I'd get to work and have that midday drop off. I wasn't hitting the pipe at work, but I needed to keep some fuel in the engine. So I'd start drinking”

“People look at sitcoms like, ‘Oh, they're out there having a fun time.’ Man, it is super fucking complicated”

[The Journey Man @JM_speakss]

I have no dry powder left.

Thought about taking out a loan, but I hate leverage. That’s how people lose their Bitcoin.

Now I’m staring at my $10K emergency fund wondering if a 50% drawdown is actually an emergency.

Part of me says protect the cash.

Part of me says Bitcoin at $60K is the emergency.

Be honest…

Are you touching your emergency fund to buy Bitcoin here, or am I completely out of line?

[Simply Bitcoin @SimplyBitcoin]

Jeff Booth gave one of the best speeches EVER on Bitcoin 🔥

[Matt Cole @ColeMacro]

As a long-time Bitcoiner, I believe the debt crisis won’t improve, debasement will continue, and we’re moving toward a Bitcoin future.

During this transition, I see Digital Credit as the most important asset.

I held nothing back with Pomp on how big I think this gets.

[Don Durrett - goldstockdata.com @DonDurrett]

Who Wants to Be a Millionaire? The 5-4-3-2-1 Contest.

Introduction

Who can turn $7.5K into $5.4M using gold/silver mining stocks?

Note: This contest is already underway since April, but you can still join at any time.

Perhaps nobody will win the contest, but some will get close, and many will turn $7.5K in to $1M.

Let me explain.

If you haven’t noticed, a bull market in gold is underway (silver is following). The gold spot price traded at $2,000 in January 2024 (see the gold monthly chart below). Since then, it has been on a tear, and I doubt we are anywhere close to the top.

The last bull market in gold lasted about a decade, from 2001 to 2011, and rose from $250 to $1900 (650%). I would contend that the fundamentals for gold are stronger today than in that decade. During that time period, we did not have any inflation, US global hegemony was not threatened, de-dollarization was not a term spoken, and the US government bond market was stable and the envy of the world.

I would contend that the mania of this gold bull market hasn’t even started yet. The average investor isn’t fearful yet. How could they be? We haven’t had a recession since 2009. When the next recession begins, the run to gold will be epic. Can we avoid a recession? I doubt it.

If you agree with me that this bull market in gold has legs and want to speculate, I have a contest for you. However, be prepared for the possibility of losing your money ($7,500), because that is what speculation is – gambling. However, the risk-reward is compelling if we are right about the gold price trending higher.

The contest requires very little capital. All you need to risk is $7,500, with a potential payout of $5.4M. A 72,000% payout (before tax) seems impossible, but if this gold bull market lasts for a few years, I think it is possible and worth a try – I expect someone to win.

The Contest

Here is the contest. You start with $7,500. I recommend a retirement fund that does not trigger capital gains if you trade a stock, such as an IRA.

Anyone who has a job with earned income can create an IRA in the USA (you can have more than one). Since this will be a new IRA account, it will be easy to monitor/trade your contest stocks.

If you already have an IRA account, set up another one. Make it easy to track your progress.

Everyone begins with $7.5K USD. If your account is in a foreign currency, then begin with the equivalent value in USD. For instance, in Canada, it would be around $10K CAD (the current conversion rate).

Once your account is funded, you can begin purchasing gold/silver miners (or options).

The competition is broken up into legs. After you complete a leg, you then rebalance and begin the next leg. During the rebalance, you can keep your existing stocks or buy new ones. It’s your choice how you rebalance. I expect to have a new set of stocks for each stage, although some will likely stick around from one leg to the next.

Here are the five legs.

5-Bagger = $45K (first leg)
4-Bagger = $225K (second leg)
3-Bagger = $900K (third leg)
2-Bagger = $2.7M (fourth leg)
1-Bagger = $5.4M (final leg)

In the first leg, you have to achieve a 5-bagger. So, you need your starting $7,500 to reach $45,000. This will be the easiest leg because we are early in the bull market, but the longer it takes you, the less likely you will complete leg 2.

Over time, returns will begin to diminish. Very few will likely complete leg 3.

In each leg, you can only purchase gold/silver miners (or options). It’s your choice how you allocate, but I would not do more than 5 stocks in each leg. I’m sure some of you will do 3 stocks or fewer. Concentrating provides more leverage.

One idea is to begin with 7 stocks and then sell the laggards and move that money into the early winners. Then, eventually concentrate that into the 3 big winners. If we can find 3 stocks that rip, it will be easy to get a 5-bagger.

During each leg, you will monitor your stocks and trade them as you see fit. There are no rules for trading. You can trade/swap at your heart's desire.

The goal for leg 1 is to get to $45,000 as fast as possible.

Once you reach $45,000, you will rebalance and sell some (or all) of your stocks (and pay any capital gains taxes owed). Ideally, you want to do this in an IRA account that does not have capital gains for selling a stock.

With the proceeds, you will buy new gold/silver miners with the same objective – to reach the next leg. This time, the target is $225,000 (4-bagger).

If the gold bull market rages for at least two more years, the chances are good that this strategy will work to reach leg 1 and leg 2. Many of you should complete leg 2.

Once we get to leg 3, the bull market will likely be frothy. It won’t be as easy to find 3-baggers. The good news is that you only need a 3-bagger to reach leg 4. Traders are going to have a big advantage here, rotating into stocks that are doing well.

At this stage, you may decide to only pick 2 or 3 stocks instead of 5 or 7. You will be so close to the finish line that you may decide that 5 or 7 is too many to bet on. One loser could bite you badly, and you might want to stick with quality.

At this point, you will need to consider using a stop-loss to prevent your portfolio from getting damaged. A 20% trailing stop-loss might make sense once we get to leg 3. Speculating with over $200,000 may be unwise. For some of you, making it this far was great, but it might be time to be a bit cautious. After all, this bull market will end at some point, and rather abruptly!

Anyone who completes leg 3 will have a lot to celebrate. You can decide if you want to exit the contest or go for the final two legs. The key will be the gold macro fundamentals. If they remain strong, then I’ll likely stay in the contest.

Today, 10-baggers are easy to find. I could give you 25 potential choices to choose from. That’s what makes this contest so interesting. Getting to leg 2 should be easy if gold trends to $7,000. Gold/silver miners might be the most asymmetric bet since Bitcoin was at $10,000.

I bought Bitcoin when it was sub $10,000, and I felt like I had the odds on my side. That’s how gold/silver miners feel right now. The odds are on our side.

If you are one of my subscribers or followers, then you should know the current 10-baggers that I like. Here is a list of 39 (see below) that I posed on X recently.

You could throw darts at this list and have success with leg 1 -- if gold trends to $7,000.

Let’s all do this together and have a competition to see who can complete each leg. We can share our portfolios on the GSD forum. I’ll create a thread called 5-4-3-2-1 Contest.

I created a new IRA account for this competition and funded it with $7,500. I hope you do the same. This will be fun!

I’m not much of a trader (and I won’t use options), so I don’t expect to win. But I hope to complete leg 3 or get close!

[Manly Mentor @manly_mentor]

The video I watched every morning at 6am for 6 months...

[Delusional Bull @dbull888]

IMO the most interesting opportunities are within junior miners $GDXJ and biotech $XBI right now

Miners look so so so good. Basically anything Gold, Silver, Platinum, Nickel, Copper, Tungsten, or Silica. So many good looking names. If oil prices ever drop these things will rip. Even at elevated oil prices they are the most profitable they’ve ever been with current commodity prices (which I don’t ever see going back to previous levels). One caveat, I think ppl should only be buying producers right now. Stay away from explorers as those are pure gambling and you’ve already missed the easy 5x’s in the good ones last year.

Biotech/pharma looks very good also. Not an easy place for a tourist (like myself) but AI should be a massive tailwind for many companies. $XBI as a catch-all seems like a good place to be. I’m also starting to come around to the idea that $LLY might be one of the greatest companies in history and should be a core holding in everyone’s portfolio for the foreseeable future.

[Don Durrett - goldstockdata.com @DonDurrett]

I posted a new SeekingAlpha article today: Gold Miners With High Upside Potential.

It's open to the public. If you get prompted to do a Free Trial, close that screen and ignore it. If you have problems bypassing that screen, try another browser.

https://t.co/PJLgeQQn4K

[Msktime @mskhour1]

@anni_sen @amitisinvesting Paywall

[Investor Safari @InvestorSafari]

https://t.co/czIJ46ZB8m

[Carlos Cubo @enbocacinefago]

¿Buscando qué ver en Prime Video? Os recomiendo 8 películas, entre el thriller y el terror. Sigue el 🧵

EDEN (2024): Buscando escapar de la civilización, un grupo de gente se instala en una isla desierta de las Galápagos. La llegada de nuevos colonos desata el caos.

Ron Howard dirige este interesante thriller de supervivencia con un gran reparto e inspirado en unos pertubadores hechos reales.