How has photography shaped the Russian poetic imagination? You can read all about it in my new book from @CornellPress Order here and use code 09FLYER for 30% off https://t.co/JlDeAKo0sp
Some thoughts on the current situation around the war
📌Putin appears to believe that Russia is winning and will ultimately win the war. In his view, taking Donbas is only a matter of time. He seems ready to pay almost any price to achieve that goal because he sees it as an existential issue for Russia. Those who expect that increasing pressure on Putin will create more room for negotiations are likely to be disappointed. More pressure is more likely to lead to further radicalisation in Moscow and a stronger military response.
📌Economic difficulties, which are becoming more serious, together with battlefield losses and the fuel crisis, are unlikely to make Putin reconsider his approach to the war. Instead, they are more likely to harden his position, encourage further escalation, and increase the risk of scenarios that many have previously dismissed as bluff.
📌There is a growing gap between the political leadership and the rest of the country, particularly the business community, which increasingly wants the war to end. At present, there is little room for internal debate or for questioning Putin’s course. Instead, the leadership appears committed to further escalation, with no clear limits. This is likely to make these internal contradictions more acute over time.
📌Ukrainian strikes inside Russia are strengthening anti-Ukrainian and anti-Western sentiment, making it easier for the Kremlin to justify further escalation. At the same time, Russian public opinion is divided. Some argue that the war should end roughly along the current front line, while others call for far more extreme measures, including the destruction of Kyiv, the use of nuclear weapons, and mass violence against Ukrainians. A prolonged war of attrition will further strengthen both camps.
📌The year 2026 appears to be a particularly important stage in the war. For the first time, the cumulative effects of the conflict are having a visible impact on Russia’s domestic situation, raising questions about the state’s ability to continue functioning in the same way. This weakens Putin politically, but it also appears to make him more radical, contributing to a growing sense among parts of the Moscow elite that a catastrophe may be approaching.
📌There is a strong and growing expectation that significant changes lie ahead. There is little understanding on what form they will take, who will drive them, or how fast they may begin. However, there is an increasingly widespread belief that, if the current war of attrition continues, Russia’s resources will come under growing strain, while the economy remains constrained and growing numbers of businesses become unviable.
The overall conclusion is that two processes are unfolding at the same time: increasing external escalation and deepening internal contradictions. The West should be prepared for unexpected developments.
Wall Street Journal reporter Evan Gershkovich is still in a Russian jail for the "crime" of doing journalism. It has been a year. Here's one way the Journal is marking this grim occasion. Via @ReliableSources
“Does this University Senate Have Too Much Power?” @meganzahneis covers debates on the future of shared governance at the @universityofky for @chronicle Here’s hoping @senate_uk will be asked to collaborate on solutions to ensure the best for our students
https://t.co/x3rrcjGFuF
Since Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine began two years ago, the most useful thing I've done is this lecture series on Ukrainian history.
Thanks to Yale for making it public.
https://t.co/7Ifg9BiTz3
I'm so sorry to have to write this - the poet, essayist and human rights activist Lev Rubenstein died of injuries sustained when he was hit by a car last week. Wonderful poet and beloved by everyone who knew him.
https://t.co/R8BPk0T9Fu
The Russian security state has an ominous fixation with punishing young, artsy women who defy conventional notions of proper young womanhood (marriage, office job, children), way out of proportion to the challenge to authorities their activism poses
⚡⚡ A court in St. Petersburg has sentenced artist and musician Alexandra Skochilenko to seven years for swapping supermarket price tags with tags displaying anti-war statements and facts about the invasion of Ukraine.
https://t.co/NFA6r2qKxJ
Today, a Russian feminist and anti-war activist, Sasha Skochivenko, got 7 years in jail.
She disseminated the price tags (6 of them) with the number of civilian casualties in Ukraine caused by the Russian invasion.
Every semester I do my best to chip away at the #HiddenCurriculum. I've added slides on how to read the syllabus, suggested study tips, and how to use our Canvas course site. This semester I added a slide on how to request an extension for an assignment.
Now in open access! How do citizens evaluate regime propaganda regarding Ukraine in Russia? Why doesn't personal experience (e.g., travel to Ukraine) undermine the credibility of propaganda? Why do those critical of state media find propaganda credible?
https://t.co/msqpdC771r
The writers of the 1920s “were thinking about the future – and we have to think about the future, even in the darkest times.”
Thank you, @chiggi, for this tribute to @vamelina and her legacy.
https://t.co/BcSVamf1SZ
“Russian is my mother tongue and liberation means ripping it out of my throat.” This sentence by @sasha_weirdsley has haunted me ever since I first read it several months ago. I’m a middle aged Qazaq man born and raised in Almaty. Russian is my “mother tongue”. 🧵…