Mugwort

CFA based in Seoul. NFA.

[Mugwort @mugwort04]

@aleabitoreddit Even if some customers walk away over independence, optics demand still looks bigger than supply. I think that's part of why Marvell is buying Lumentum.

[Mugwort @mugwort04]

TL;DR: Bank of America says a blue wave could delay data centers, not cut demand.

1/ BofA sees tighter permits, more state limits, higher costs.

2/ Those could stretch project timelines.

3/ BofA calls it a supply/timing issue, not a demand issue.

4/ Compute needs still have to be met.

5/ So building could shift to friendlier U.S. states.

6/ Or abroad, as with Google's recent $15 billion Malaysia expansion.

[P Equity Research 📰 @pequityresearch]

BofA on the impact of blue wave on data center buildout:

"While tighter permitting, an expansion of state-by-state restrictions and higher costs could elongate project timelines, we view this as a supply/timing issue, not a demand issue. Compute needs still have to be met, with development potentially shifting toward more accommodating U.S. States or even internationally (e.g. Google’s recent $15bn expansion to Malaysia)."

$GOOGL $META $ORCL $MSFT $AMZN

[Mugwort @mugwort04]

@KobeissiLetter This is exactly why stocks go higher from here. Holding cash means losing ground.

[Mugwort @mugwort04]

@damnang2 Hope the change works out well for you. Are you thinking about joining a research firm?

[Mugwort @mugwort04]

AI companies' debt-to-earnings is still mostly below the S&P 500 median.

[P Equity Research 📰 @pequityresearch]

This is a good free read posted by J.P. Morgan about AI capex, financing, token consumption, etc.

$AMZN $GOOGL $ORCL $MSFT $META

Link in replies 👇

[Mugwort @mugwort04]

@pequityresearch Markets don't seem to like news like this lately. It just raises questions about how they'll pay for it.

[Mugwort @mugwort04]

@StockSavvyShay Agree on the exhaustion. My guess is the real bottom is within 3 months. It usually shows up once retail has sold and stopped caring about the market.

[Mugwort @mugwort04]

@SemiAnalysis_ @theinformation Do you think Microsoft will shift new capacity to other neoclouds?

[Mugwort @mugwort04]

@amitisinvesting Makes sense why oil dropped. But would a quick end to the war be read as a win by markets, or as the US walking away without a result? Curious what you think.

[Mugwort @mugwort04]

@gnoble79 Plz elaborate more

[Mugwort @mugwort04]

@JamieMetzl If you think this badly of him, why do you use his platform?

[Mugwort @mugwort04]

@SawyerMerritt @Starlink It's finally happening.

[Mugwort @mugwort04]

@TheLongInvest Why would they target SpaceX? What would they get out of it?

Then the US could lose its lead in rockets.

[Mugwort @mugwort04]

@SpaceInvestor_D 2050

[Mugwort @mugwort04]

Looks like algos are making mistakes here.

[Shay Boloor @StockSavvyShay]

Pretty wild seeing $NBIS down 7% over the Texas election when it doesn't even have any disclosed data center projects in the state.

Its U.S. sites are in New Jersey, Missouri, Pennsylvania and Alabama with its $MSFT contract served out of New Jersey and additional operations across Europe and Israel.

If anything restrictions on new development in Texas could make the power Nebius has already secured elsewhere more valuable.

Just another example how bad the sentiment is when the market is selling AI stocks as a blanket without checking where actual data centers are.

[Mugwort @mugwort04]

People sell dips because their position is bigger than their nerve.

[Antonio Linares @alc2022]

Brother is just a retard that sells when stocks go down apparently

[Mugwort @mugwort04]

@StockSavvyShay Definitely buying opportunity

[Mugwort @mugwort04]

TL;DR: In co-packaged optics (CPO), one bad photonic chip can mean scrapping the whole package.

1/ The optics sits inside the chip package, so a finished one is hard to rework.

2/ So the photonic chip (PIC) must be tested before packaging, with electrical and optical signals at once.

3/ If testing is this hard, investors who only study lasers and packaging may miss it.

[Damnang @damnang2]

https://t.co/bKCV7jMFWK

[Mugwort @mugwort04]

@InverseKevinX He saved the market

[Mugwort @mugwort04]

@JonkooTrades $PENG might become SK Group's core vehicle for doing AI business in the U.S.