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Every country on earth must hold US dollars just to buy oil. America built it that way on purpose, in a secret 1974 deal between Henry Kissinger and Saudi Arabia, right after the dollar lost all its backing in gold. This is how America turned paper into an empire
In 2020, the Paycheck Protection Program poured $525 billion into the economy, yet 80 % of that cash landed in firms whose CEOs already earn over $10 million a year. 🧵
At the peak of its bubble, the land under Tokyo's Imperial Palace was said to be worth more than all the land in California. Japan was the richest, most envied economy on earth. Within three years it had built a trap it would spend the next 30 years trying to escape
"I can calculate the motions of the heavenly bodies, but not the madness of people."
Isaac Newton said that in 1720, the year he lost £20,000 in a single stock. Worth more than £4 million today
The most useful thing I found:
The big fight, Nvidia vs custom chips, is the wrong one to bet on.
TSMC makes both. The memory makers sell into both. ASML's machines are used for both. They make money on every chip, whoever wins. TSMC trades at ~19x 2028 earnings
Why do people do this?
Power and cooling names are easy stories, easy to hold, no bubble argument attached. People pay up for that.
Nvidia comes with a permanent worry: huge numbers, custom-chip threat, is the spending real. That keeps the multiple low even while earnings climb
The simplest way to see it is what you pay vs how fast the company grows.
Nvidia trades at about a third of its growth rate. Arm trades at more than four times its growth rate.
You pay ~13x more, for the growth you actually get, to own the licensing company than Nvidia
Now the "safe" way everyone reaches for instead.
Vertiv ~74x. GE Vernova ~50x. Arm ~124x. $ALAB ~54x. $BE ~125x.
These companies are riding the AI wave but most of them are growing slower than Nvidia, but costing three to seven times as much
Start with the "expensive" ones.
Nvidia trades at ~18x its 2028 earnings while growing ~54% a year. Broadcom is 16-21x while its AI revenue doubles.
Paying 18x for growth that fast is not expensive. The share price is big but the multiple is still pretty cheap
The AI stocks everyone calls expensive are cheaper than the ones everyone calls safe.
I put the entire AI hardware chain on 2028 earnings. ~140 names. It comes out priced backwards.
$NVDA and $AVGO : 18-21x. $VRT , $GEV , $ARM : 50-124x