$BTC
Why I prefer directional bias over market structure
Small rant coming up as the discussion of 'where price will go' and whether that depends on market structure or some mysterious force (directional bias) is very common so I just like to give my opinion on this ever-popular matter.
So before going deep, I don't mind using market structure, and if it goes along with your established bias (where you think the market goes next), it's useful.
But if you don't have an idea or only use your 'intuition' to establish a bias, the problem with 'market structure' trading becomes apparent which is that you either have to use your intuition and intuition only to go against your idea of market structure, in other words, your bias fully depends on whether we make a lower high (for example here) or higher high, which is arbitrary (how will you predict this?). Just look at the situation now, we are approach a high (of 100k on the weekly). 'Market structure' traders consider this a potential lower high. But anyone who remembers for example October 2023, where everyone thought the market 'broke down', knows how traitorous market structure is. And by the time you waited for a 'break above the high' the comfortable entries were long far gone.
Ranges break, failed auctions form, market structure shifts as soon as it becomes obvious, and even if it rejects say here, it may not have any follow through worth catching. So betting on a rejection only based on market structure is not trading, it's gambling, which is why market structure traders often have to resort to 'intuition' and you hear them say things like ' yeah its a lower high here, but I don't feel like shorting here'. 'Yes it just broke the high but I don't feel like longing here'.
Simple solution but it takes effort: learn to establish a bias.
That is the whole reason why I spend so much time on establishing a bias based on reading order flow, analyzing data, interpreting the market's proper logic (not some arbitrary high or low that has to reject because Our Lord has the will of the market structure), analyzing sentiment, not only locally here, but compared to each and every time in the past where we have come into large resistance.
Only thorough analysis allows you to establish directional bias in markets and that is what allows you upon every crossroads to decide whether you trade the range or trade the breakout and how, at the same time, allowing you to expect and confirm what you want to see to take a trade, instead of stubbornly expecting a 'trend' to continue. That's the very definition of 'turtle trading' which is not an easy way to profit.
Instead, directional bias solves the million dollar question each and every time, taking the gambling element out of trading. Market structure does not and leaves you stranded and frustrated, therefore with less conviction.
And to be crystal clear, this is not the time to be 1. panicking or 2. selling spot holds that were bought for the end of the cycle.
Even if the below scenario does have potential to play out- there are no guarantees that it MUST.
The purpose of me making you aware of the below scenario is not to encourage you to sell, rather, it is to point out the next area of interest in case the current one is lost so that if we do break down you won't panic/sell into the NEXT logical reversal zone.
The only two options in a situation like this (for spot holders) imo, is to consider buying more spot (responsibly) if we get the orange zone OR patiently wait for the reversal if you don't have more funds to deploy.
We don't sell the dips, we buy them (if we can).
Do you think the story ends like this?
With every meme down the drain
Every alt eating dust?
No!
Seen this story countless times before.
All nuke is designed to shake out weak hands,
They want only the hardcore believers in the asset
They do everything in their power to weed out the clever ones who are trying to time the market.
But you have to be a little redacted to believe all this.
This is why most don't make it.
Because it doesn't make "sense".
Remember, they make profits when they send everything out the stratosphere,
Not by killing every market in existence.
So strap in, pack your bags, and don't look at the prices.
In a few months, your future self will thank the fcuk out of you.
RT if you want to see more such rants ποΈ
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@astronomer_zero Paid..!.. Hopefully I get in... Your tweets have been incredibly helpful Astro in learning, and I have been trying to be a successful trader for years. Thanks a lot for the opportunity, and all you share for free tooπ
People who got rich in crypto,
Didn't get rich because they were super smart
But they held, and survived the volatility
Until the easy time arrived ποΈ
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