Maciej Wojtal

Founder & CIO @AmtelonCapital. Fund manager focused on the Tehran Stock Exchange.

[Maciej Wojtal @mwojtal]

Finanz und Wirtschaft discusses the potential economic implications of the recent US-Iran memorandum and references analysis by Amtelon Capital.

The article explores why the recent US-Iran memorandum could represent a once-in-a-generation economic inflection point for Iran, while also highlighting the structural reforms required for sustainable growth.

Article (German): https://t.co/6HvlKIVmZM @FuW_News @AmtelonCapital

[Amtelon Capital @AmtelonCapital]

IRAN MARKET CLOSE (22 June 2026)

•Tedpix Index 5,072,577 -1.04%
•Farabourse Index 38,216 -1.43%
•Amtelon Index* 317.6 -0.86%
•Value Traded (USD mln) 210.6
•USD/IRR (bazaar rate) 1,597,000 -0.19%

[Maciej Wojtal @mwojtal]

@Ab83126691 @AmtelonCapital Please email [email protected], thanks

[Maciej Wojtal @mwojtal]

World’s best-performing equity market over the past month in $ terms? Iran’s $110bln stock exchange

Great article by @jsphctrl with a few insights from @AmtelonCapital

Donald Trump made Iran’s stocks great again https://t.co/OmGrxITyRU via @FT @FTAlphaville

[Maciej Wojtal @mwojtal]

In the 21 trading days since the Tehran Stock Exchange reopened, Iran’s retail investors have poured over USD 400
million of fresh capital into equities. The stock market gained 30% in USD terms this week and is up nearly 50% since the final session before the war. Post-war sentiment is changing fast.

[Maciej Wojtal @mwojtal]

@martinfrogers Great to see you in London

[Maciej Wojtal @mwojtal]

In our view, the draft goes materially further than the market had expected.

*Immediate Sanctions Relief*
"The United States undertakes that immediately after the signing of this Memorandum of Understanding, and until the date of the lifting of sanctions, the United States Treasury Department will issue waivers for exports of Iranian crude oil, petrochemical products and their derivatives, and all related services, including banking, insurance, transportation, and the like."

The first and most important point is the immediate waiver mechanism. The US would issue waivers covering Iranian crude oil, petrochemical products and all related services, including banking, insurance and transportation. In practical terms, Iran would regain the ability to sell its most important export products through formal channels, rather than relying on discounts, intermediaries and workarounds.

This matters because oil and petrochemical exports represent roughly $80-$90 billion of hard-currency revenue per year. The absence of this revenue was the single most important driver behind the 98% collapse of the Iranian currency and average inflation of 30%-40% over the last decade. If this revenue returns, the budget deficit narrows materially, the need for money printing falls, the currency can stabilise and inflation can move back towards single digits.

Crucially, this is not designed to start only after successful follow-on negotiations. This starts next week. That alone should be enough for Japanese trading houses and South Korean chaebols to start rebuilding commercial channels with Iran.

*Lifting of All Sanctions*
"The United States commits to ending, on a schedule to be agreed upon as part of the final agreement, all types of sanctions currently facing the Islamic Republic of Iran, including resolutions of the United Nations Security Council and the Board of Governors of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), and all unilateral U.S. sanctions, both primary and secondary."

Strictly speaking, the last time the US had no Iran sanctions and Americans were broadly free to invest and do business there was before 14 November 1979. There was a brief post-hostage-crisis relaxation in the early 1980s, but sanctions were gradually rebuilt from 1984. American companies, and therefore most multinational corporations, have not been able to touch Iran for the last 40 years. This could change within two months if the final agreement is reached.

The implications are difficult to overstate. In a sanctions-free scenario, Exxon and Conoco could look at South Pars gas field from the Iranian side, not only from Qatar. Iran could regain access to the deepest global pools of FDI. Its stock market would appear on the radar of BlackRock, Templeton and the wider emerging-market investment universe. With its market capitalisation, liquidity and sector depth, Iran would be difficult to ignore.

*A $300 Billion Plan*
Sanctions relief alone would be enough to materially change Iran’s economic trajectory. It would allow the country to rebuild, reintegrate with the global economy and close part of its development gap over the coming decades. The agreement, however, goes further.

"The United States undertakes, together with its regional partners, to create a comprehensive plan agreed upon by both parties for the rehabilitation and economic development of the Islamic Republic of Iran, while ensuring financing of at least $300 billion. The implementation mechanism of this plan, as part of the final agreement, will be formulated within 60 days."

The scale is important to put in context:
• Iran’s GDP: around $300 billion
• Annual capital formation: around $60 billion
• Market capitalisation of listed equities: around $100 billion
• Central Bank’s reserves: $20-$30 billion (no data available, rough estimate)

The proposed fund is not just large in dollar terms. It is large relative to the entire investable universe of Iran. At $300 billion, it is equivalent to around 100% of GDP, three times the listed equity market, five years of annual capital formation and roughly 10x the central bank’s FX reserves.

The original Marshall Plan after World War 2 was equivalent to roughly 10% of recipient-country GDP. This is a different order of magnitude.

https://t.co/ey0OxQerBW via @WSJ @AmtelonCapital

[Kamran Shahid @FrontlineKamran]

Trump signing the deal

[Amtelon Capital @AmtelonCapital]

TEDPIX rallied 9.7% during this week.

[Tehran Times @TehranTimes79]

#BREAKING
ISNA: Details of the Memorandum of Understanding between Iran and the United States

🔹 According to details of the memorandum, as claimed by Pakistan, there is an emphasis on the lifting of sanctions against Iran.

🔹 Pakistan reports that a portion of Iran's frozen assets, amounting to $28 billion, will be released, with between $10 billion and $14 billion expected to be freed.

🔹 A complete ceasefire has been declared in all regions, and the withdrawal of Israeli occupiers from southern Lebanon has been announced.

🔹 The agreement also references the issue of enriched uranium, stating that uranium and Iran's nuclear facilities will remain in Iran.

🔹 Based on these details, a compensation fund of $300 billion will be established for Iran.

🔹 Sanctions imposed by the United States against Iran will be lifted.

🔹 According to the details of this memorandum, Iran will manage the Strait of Hormuz and will collect fees at a later date.

[Shehbaz Sharif @CMShehbaz]

Following intensive talks, we are pleased to announce that the Peace Deal between the United States of America and Islamic Republic of Iran has been REACHED. Both sides have declared the immediate and permanent termination of military operations on all fronts, including in Lebanon.

The official signing ceremony will be on Friday, 19 June in Switzerland.

We would like to thank the United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran for their commitment to finding a diplomatic solution to the conflict. We would also like to extend our sincere appreciation to our brothers in this mediation effort, the great leadership of State of Qatar, for their support in reaching this agreement. I would also especially thank the visionary leadership of Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and Republic of Türkiye for their immense contributions in this regard.

With the agreement now in place, mediators will facilitate a series of meetings this week. These pre-implementation discussions will lay the foundation for the technical talks and the official signing ceremony.

@realDonaldTrump
@JDVance
@SecRubio
@SteveWitkoff
@SEPeaceMissions
@drpezeshkian
@mb_ghalibaf
@araghchi

[Gregory Brew @gbrew24]

Axios: Agreement on the MOU has been reached, Iran has reportedly given its approval, Trump hasn't yet made a final decision, wants "a few more days." https://t.co/Qor7t9vQyy

[Al Arabiya English @AlArabiya_Eng]

🔴 BREAKING: US and Iranian negotiators have reached an agreement on a 60-day memorandum of understanding to extend the ceasefire and launch negotiations on Iran’s nuclear program, but President Donald Trump has yet to give it his final approval, Axios reports, citing two US officials.

[Joyce Karam @Joyce_Karam]

UPDATE
• Trump 📞 Netanyahu, Erdogan
• Pakistan interior minister Naqvi met IRGC Vahidi (1st appearance since war)
• Sides working on letter of intent, 30-day period of negotiations: Axios
• Oman & Iran working on Hormuz mechanism: Reuters
• Saudi, China pushing for deal

[Maciej Wojtal @mwojtal]

Iran’s stock market is set to reopen tomorrow after a 2.5-month halt with most listed companies resuming trading

42 companies, representing ~32% of total market cap, will remain halted due to direct war damage or material exposure to companies that were directly damaged

[Maciej Wojtal @mwojtal]

This could create indiscriminate selling in high-quality names whose earnings outlook improved during the halt, while valuations remain extremely low and prices have yet to reflect the stronger fundamentals.

[Maciej Wojtal @mwojtal]

Iran’s stock market is set to reopen tomorrow after a 2.5-month halt with most listed companies resuming trading

42 companies, representing ~32% of total market cap, will remain halted due to direct war damage or material exposure to companies that were directly damaged

[Maciej Wojtal @mwojtal]

Institutional investors are currently restricted from selling broad market exposure, incl. ETFs and investment holdings

They cannot sell the largest war-damaged companies, as these remain halted

Funds needing liquidity may be forced to sell what they can, not what they want