This is the most bearish my timeline has been since Covid, with no close second 🐻 📉:
People who have never owned a bond are quoting overnight bond futures and swap spreads.
People who have never traded a currency are tracking the pre-market yen and yuan.
People who don’t realize you can’t trade Spot VIX are quoting Spot VIX.
People who don’t understand a real bear market are getting really bearish.
And I think they’re going to be right for a bit longer.
Just long enough for the whipsaw to catch you offsides. You lighten your exposure, but then there’s a monster multi-day rally. Sweet relief, it’s over. You pile back in. Yes, you missed the bottom but you know you’ll get most of the recovery.
So you chase the bounce, only to discover there are lower lows to be plumbed: offsides again.
A Great Bear market doesn’t fall 20% then recover:
It jukes and dodges.
It falls and rallies.
It crashes and rips.
It is head fakes and narratives and bear porn - being negative feels and sounds so fking smart.
In sum, it takes the path of maximum pain, extracting more from you with each jagged move.
It milks you.
Maximum pain means the Great Bear draws you in and kicks you out at all the wrong times. It is raw emotion and you do worse than if you’d done nothing.
You want to give up, so you finally exit and actually do nothing, only to watch it rip again.
But you wise up - this time you don’t chase it, because you have learned your lesson and you know better…
…except you don’t.
It really was over.
If this is a Great Bear, that’s when the bottom is in: when you quit and you’re set back ten years.
Don’t think you can avoid it.
It is your destiny.
Yap early, yap only, yap often.
@_kaitoai is connecting AI, attention and capital with Yaps.
Just claimed my social card and I'm accumulating Yap points in real-time.
Claim yours 👉 https://t.co/OTgmH2CgUi
@ghalimi Compare contents based on preset rules is also super critical, especially in research fields. For now GPT-like algos uses embeddings or TF-IDF based on word / dictionaries. If we apply your principia data we can literally compare tables and even charts natively.
@ghalimi@TobiM Layering could be implemented three ways: either group resources in azure and reflect that as a sub layer on the diagram, or identify them manually post drawing via a simple UI, or suggestion via some sort of AI
@ghalimi@TobiM Yes I totally get the need for simplification and arbitrary decision on what to display from left to right, top to bottom. I think one could automate the simplification of the json output into something easy to visualize and then display order templates could be applied.
@ghalimi@TobiM Doesn’t azure output a json of resources that you can plot with a bit of parsing ? I know aws does that. Going from 2D to 3D is just a view point change (still a grid but more space between cells, different set of icons). Ideally you should not have to do it in a spreadsheet.
@ghalimi Is your goal to seamlessly support all excel formulaes as well, or at least the most used ones ? Like a superset of postgres' native mathematical functions...