Nick Walker

Family, Cycling, Coffee, Politics. Views are my own

[Nick Walker @namwalker]

@Dr_Wobbegong @mattjcan The CGT changes tax real gains, not inflation. That’s not “doubling or tripling” anything.

But agree, weak business investment is a real productivity problem. Would be nice if anyone was actually debating solutions rather than just posting misleading charts.

[Nick Walker @namwalker]

@mattjcan Don’t get me wrong; we and the rest of the developed world have a productivity issue.

I’m just not sure Matt has a clue as to how to fix it. I also think he’s not interested, he would rather make noise.

[Nick Walker @namwalker]

@mattjcan The real causes: the mining investment boom ended and mining productivity fell sharply, growth shifted toward low-productivity sectors like health and public admin, business investment stayed weak, and it’s a global trend; most advanced economies have slowed since the GFC.

[Nick Walker @namwalker]

@FranMooMoo LOL. Fighting the right is his only job at present. If he doesn’t, his party ceases to exist.

[Nick Walker @namwalker]

@Blazer55 @OneNationAus Take a break from social media for a bit and get some perspective.

[Nick Walker @namwalker]

@SkyNewsAust Delusional. And madness that you’re reporting it.

[Nick Walker @namwalker]

@AngusTaylorMP @macsween_prue In a bid to revive the party you turn to the man who started its demise.

Fantastic. Great move. Well done Angus.

[Nick Walker @namwalker]

@067Garry I agree completely and doubt ON would hit the numbers above. I think Kos’s chart is based on today’s polling?

But that doesn’t take into consideration the own goals ON and their candidates usually concede over the course of a year or campaign.

[Nick Walker @namwalker]

Brutal for the Libs: “A decade of not representing people economically. A decade of finding new ways to offend the multicultural communities that used to be persuadable. A decade of assuming the regional and outer-suburban base would stay home no matter what.”

[Kos Samaras @KosSamaras]

The end of the Menzies project. Our Financial Review MRP projects a new political future for this country.

In 1944, Robert Menzies founded the Liberal Party. Two years earlier he had named its base, the “forgotten people”, the suburban middle class, the small businessman, the owner-occupier. With the Country Party, the Coalition that emerged would govern Australia for two-thirds of the next eight decades.

Our latest RedBridge | Accent Research MRP, modelling all 150 seats, suggests that project is ending.

If an election were held now:
• Labor - 31% primary, 76 seats. A majority government.
• One Nation - 28% primary, 53 seats. The Official Opposition.
• Coalition - 21% primary, 12 seats. A rump.
• Independents - 8 seats.
• Greens, KAP, Centre Alliance - one seat.

62 seats change hands. The Coalition loses 37 to One Nation. Labor loses 16 to One Nation. The Coalition wins zero seats in Queensland, WA, SA or Tasmania.

Who votes for whom now:

Labor has become a bimodal coalition (two distinct voter populations rather than one). University-educated, professional inner-metro voters in Grayndler, Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane, Perth, Adelaide. Plus the multicultural outer suburbs, Watson, Blaxland, Chifley, Calwell, Bruce, Fowler. Renters and mortgage-holders. Younger. Non-religious in the inner city, Muslim/Hindu/Buddhist/Orthodox/Catholic in the outer suburbs. Two populations, one vote.

One Nation is now the party of the Anglo working class. Regional Queensland, regional NSW, regional Victoria, regional WA. Plus the outer-suburban mortgage belts of every capital, Lindsay, Hawke, Latrobe, Forde, Longman, Canning, Pearce. No university degree. Trades and blue-collar work. Protestant or no religion. English-only households. Mortgage stress and government payments. This is the Coalition’s old base, voting somewhere else.

The Liberal Party is left with a small bucket of seats. Bradfield, Mitchell, Berowra, Cook. Menzies, Deakin, Aston, Goldstein, Flinders. Wannon. High-income, university-educated, Anglo, owner-occupier, 45+. The seats the teals didn’t take in 2022. And even there, the Liberals are surviving on preferences, not primaries.

A caveat on the Melbourne eastern seats, Menzies, Deakin, Aston, Chisholm. The model may not fully capture the impact of the Chinese diaspora vote. Those seats are too close to call.

The LNP wins zero seats in Queensland. The Nationals are projected to nearly be wiped out.

This is what a decade of choices looks like. A decade of not representing people economically. A decade of finding new ways to offend the multicultural communities that used to be persuadable. A decade of assuming the regional and outer-suburban base would stay home no matter what.

The base didn’t stick around for the self indulgence and it found another home.

The Menzies project rested on a “forgotten people” who could see themselves represented by the Liberal Party. They no longer can. They’re voting One Nation.

Labor wins this scenario. But the structural story is on the right of politics. The Coalition is no longer the Opposition. One Nation is.

More details on the MRP can be accessed via the link below.

[Nick Walker @namwalker]

@Dashytwo This is why we can’t have nice things. And need more funding for schools.

[Nick Walker @namwalker]

@GreenTyler27 You’ll destroy the LNP but doubt you’ll win enough seats to form a government.

[Nick Walker @namwalker]

@realDonaldTrump @SebGorka You’re really rising to the office aren’t you?

[𝕭𝖆𝖒 𝕾𝖚𝖑𝖑𝖎𝖛𝖆𝖓 @BamSullivan]

Can't raise minimum wage because it will kill jobs.

Can't raise taxes on the bourgeoisie class because it will kill jobs.

Can't ditch oil because it will kill jobs.

But when these companies replace 50% of their workforce with AI, it's "sorry, that's just the way it goes."

[Nick Walker @namwalker]

@FairAusADV @ajphelo @dailytelegraph Ask that same population to quote the current immigration levels.

[Nick Walker @namwalker]

@TonySowersby @MikeCarlton01 The Sir Les-vibes are off the charts

[Nick Walker @namwalker]

@PeterWallaceAU Peta Credlin’s greatest political achievement was helping turn a first term government into a complete train wreck. “Runs rings around politicians” is an odd way to describe driving Tony Abbott straight into the wall.

[Nick Walker @namwalker]

@GemmaTognini @AustralianLabor Do you remember Howard & Costello selling the family silverware to achieve that?

[Nick Walker @namwalker]

@Katherine_deves LOL. In Farrar, maybe. How about you run in Warringah again and find out how “over” real is here?