Tim McLean

Naples Debt & Equity Broker who enjoys seeing his clients succeed.

[Tim McLean @NaplesRunner]

@adamtaggart For Thomas: How will reducing the number of Fed meetings and less transparency by the Fed affect the term premium for longer term rates?

[Tim McLean @NaplesRunner]

@commonsenseplay You may want to add CRWV to your shorts.

[Tim McLean @NaplesRunner]

@calvinfroedge Well done my fellow WAWD friend!

[Tim McLean @NaplesRunner]

@mikesimonsen Both. I'm selling stocks to buy RE

[Stephanie Kelton @StephanieKelton]

It's worth noting the leverage embedded in household equity exposure. With margin debt relative to GDP now ~4.1%, we're running noticeably hotter than peak dot-com. Highly recommend reading @MacroEdge1 for analysis of that period. https://t.co/GOyfEvSDqh

[Clemente @clementetv_]

If The Big Short was made in 2026

[Mossad Commentary @MOSSADil]

🇺🇸🇮🇷 BREAKING: The IRGC claims Iranian forces have launched attacks on U.S. bases in the region in response to recent U.S. strikes in southern Iran. Tehran warned that any further U.S. military action will be met with “more severe and widespread attacks” against additional targets.

[Tim McLean @NaplesRunner]

@RealJimChanos Unfortunately Brad and Jensen now lie to promote the AI game plan.

[🏴‍☠️ @calvinfroedge]

Let me break down for you the difference in incentives for the speculators and the people who actually work in the oil industry

The people who work for the oil industry have made their careers in it. Oil having a future depends on stability and reliability. They know that a severe crisis could push the world to act and develop viable alternatives. That would effectively jeopardize their careers as well as the enormous Capital expenditure that has been made in developing global oil infrastructure. Literally the fate of entire nations depends on the continued use of oil as our primary source of energy. So it's rare that you're going to see these guys talk up a crisis. Because the smart ones know that any crisis that's really severe could be the last crisis. However, you do get blips of transparency from guys who aren't talking their book. They're just like holy crap. This actually is turning into a crisis.

On the other hand, you have the speculators. Now the speculators don't really care too much. If this is the crisis that structurally shifts the future world energy allocation 10 years from now. The speculators want to make their money now from an extreme price dislocation. Mercuria and Trafigura, for example, are speculators. They're thinking about their bonuses over the next few years. Nothing that they're saying is untrue, but the reason that they're telling people that yes this is actually really bad is because they're positioned to profit from it.

If you've got 100 years of oil reserves, you want people to be using oil for the next hundred years. If oil futures in 2028 you just want the price to go to $1000 and you don't care how it gets there.

Anyway, oil industry career guys and super long term planners have an incentive to talk down oil. Traitors and speculators have an incentive to talk it up. I think that everybody from governments around the world, to consumers of oil, to producers of oil, are watching Iran basically go off script and potentially throw the whole world into chaos and they're basically all wish casting that Iran just decides to stop and let Israel teabag them.

What people are missing is that this is existential for Iran, and existential for Israel, and you rarely have somebody back down in an existential fight.

I think crisis is certain but the timeline might be slower than people expect because of the incentives.

Should the oil price go higher? I think almost certainly so. You've got the largest drawdown of reserves in history. We drew down 15% of everything that we have (oil + fuel) in 3 months. And this was with China largely sidelined. If the current state of things continues, you're talking about forced demand destruction from widespread shortages within 2 years. You're talking about global recession. And yes, higher oil prices.

Higher oil prices are necessary to destroy demand. So far, governments have been doing exactly the opposite of what they should be as a policy response. The jaw boning and subsidies are keeping demand high. You've got countries suspending fuel taxes and drawing down on their reserves. This is not allowing the price to destroy demand.

Eric Townsend used the analogy of the guy who loses his job and he's living on his credit lines because he thinks he can get a job in 6 weeks. But he doesn't stop spending. So sooner or later he hits the wall. And that's what we're doing as a global economy.

[JustDario @DarioCpx]

To go out publicly and say what he is saying, @edzitron has balls the size of the Las Vegas sphere

[James Chanos @RealJimChanos]

@PeterDiamandis Please stop. At YE 2005 $AMZN had an enterprise value of $19B, which was 2x revenues and 30x trailing EBITDA. The market was paying almost nothing for its future businesses. SpaceX’s expected valuation is literally the opposite of that situation.

[Rick Saathoff @Rtsaathoff]

Nice @abaxx_exchange silver block trades today. Industrial users already using the contract? @JoeRaia5 @JoshCrumb #29ers

[Tim McLean @NaplesRunner]

@RyanDetrick @sonusvarghese Ryan, without using Google, can you name what movie Thaler was featured in?

[Josh Crumb 🆔++ @JoshCrumb]

One small step for 🆔++, one giant leap for agent kind. 🌖

This is the start, a first library release (more to come) of what could be the biggest moon shot within @abaxx_tech. I founded Abaxx ~eight years ago with digital identity at the core, the long horizon Thing that every other Thing gets us to. Turns out our architectural vision for humans was even more important for agents (the ones acting for humans, with protecting your data with accountability, skin in the game).

Digital Identity — ��� to unlocking the next stage of AI (a16z)
Digital Identity — 🔑 to unlocking real time token finance (Blackrock)
Sovereign Identity — 🔑 to reversing the enshitification of the internet for the next generation (Abaxx)

Now let’s put these libraries on a Tilt-A-Whirl. #29ers Please Retweet far and wide!
#MayDay #WorldBuildersOrBust $ABXX

[Tim McLean @NaplesRunner]

@Mark4XX Iranians are used to pain. Americans are soft and used to bailouts at any sign of pain. Who will blink first?

[Josh Crumb 🆔++ @JoshCrumb]

I’ve sat in front of +$1T in PM equity capital over the past two days in Boston and NY (🙏 Robert Friedland & Jeff Currie, Cantor for the support), and the 400+ tuned into our conf call last week…

…A few rough thoughts and conversations:

• We are “investing” in a global scale futures exchange + clearinghouse for a 1mm ADV market, minimum (OPEX losses for 6 years in developing contracts, markets & customer development, a clearinghouse, tech, liquidity fly wheel, etc); but none of that shows up as a real tangible asset on our balance sheet (more about the ‘goofy mining engineer’s’ audacious approach below) — obviously newcomers get confused by the market cap vs historical rev…then at the same time understand that when [not if] the onboarding and milestones keep checking off, this can be worth substantially, substantially more with minimum additional capital
#WorldBuildersOrBust

• Conversations obviously night & day different now that volumes are growing significantly (and will likely compound exponentially for years to come), even though from an internal perspective almost nothing has changed in our pitch, our process, our products, our own self-expectations for half a decade
#PlanYourMineMineYourPlan

• Given the war (“Don’t mention the war!” -Monty Python), A LOT of detail on how Abaxx is building “the Federal Reserve of Molecules”, where the clearinghouse becomes a ‘Quantity Guarantee’ of commodities, which is far more important than a paper/survey ‘Price Guarantee’ for counterparty risk (again, major disconnect between the vision, service and scale of what Abaxx is investing in versus the ‘but wut revs & assets, bro?’ financials…so far!)
#LetsGetPhysical

• We have an #OwnerOperator mentality when it comes to dilution (🤢), will obviously want more capital on our balance sheet for the clearinghouse (even though working cap is plenty okay for a few more transformational quarters ahead); have global ambitions for our tech that I have kept in check and back burner for 6yrs and don’t want to dilute before it’s understood/valued, but always talking to strategics and creative expansion ideas / investors when price is right (2/2.5B?)
#29ers

• I’m not focused on break even (it’s a point in our network growth curve that will come and go in a blink of a trading session) — we should be spendvesting waaay more on leveraging our world class team and infrastructure (a business with the best people, operating leverage and multiples in all of finance). The only equation I think about is Fx(spendvesting in winning markets vs cost of dilution)

• There are only ~12 global scale future exchanges (+1mm ADV), but I only really consider two as competitors in the way I think about the world. Both highly respected and profitable, highly formidable and effectively founder led. ..but those ‘founders‘ will be in a different boat than me in 5 to 10yrs, and the world I’m investing in looks VERY different in 10yrs (the world looks VERY different in 12 months). #WeComing

(• What do I do in my “spare time”? I wrote a whitepaper/thesis on the future of computing this past weekend; Abaxx will not only be fully agentic_.md, and full of skills_.md for developing and launching new products and sales/client support etc over the next few quarters, but I might just have invented the “soverign computing stack” — maybe the ID++ tech stack for the future of ‘Bloomberg terminals’ if not all computing) #PrivacyEngineering 🆔++

• We invest in solving big problems with big payoff business models, collecting every under-priced option that we can along the way in our approach to spendvesting. We #ThinkDifferent, we like ”hot dog stand markets” that the oligopolies consider two small for the next few quarters; we will put 5yrs into a chance of long tail volume/rev streams that solves problems for our clients, +checks in the mail years from now

• We will keep investing in people (& agents) to do this
Human Captial >> Finacial Captial

#29ers $ABXX

[Le Shrub🌳 @agnostoxxx]

The year is 2029.

The negotiations between US and Iran are ongoing.

Paper Oil trades at $5 and Physical Oil trades at $500.

AXIOS keeps running a story every week that we are close to a ceasefire.

h/t @hkuppy

[Tim McLean @NaplesRunner]

@ces921 They are in a quiet period, so they can't announce for a few weeks. That said, I'm sure the BOD has a secondary teed up.

[Tim McLean @NaplesRunner]

@BrokenMoats 100% agree, but the regulators are MIA.

[Tim McLean @NaplesRunner]

@RyanDetrick @CNBC Well deserved Ryan. Congratulations!