NathanTrades🔎

#Equity #options #trader.
Nothing to sell.
My opinions only; not investment advice.

[NathanTrades🔎 @nat_trades]

@froggytrade "you think too much" is crazyyy lol

[NathanTrades🔎 @nat_trades]

@Dcpcooks Epic

[NathanTrades🔎 @nat_trades]

@codytrades nice nice

[NathanTrades🔎 @nat_trades]

@rubicon59 what about 60 days of shake out first?

[NathanTrades🔎 @nat_trades]

@RealSimpleAriel it's ok with me if XLY, XLC, and XLF take over for a month

[NathanTrades🔎 @nat_trades]

@choffstein COWARD all caps is gold

[NathanTrades🔎 @nat_trades]

@froggytrade Nice

[NathanTrades🔎 @nat_trades]

@danshep55 GOOGL too

[NathanTrades🔎 @nat_trades]

@dampedspring You ever flip a coin tho? Pretty fun

[Doublewide Capital LLC @DoubleWideCap]

In other news- Equal weight S&P 500 made a new all time high today.

[Pod Caste @traderpodcaste]

pulled the historical data. 84 SPX episodes since 1962 hit -5% from ATH.

30% bottomed at 5%
37% extended to 6-10%
15% extended to 10-15%
18% extended past 15%

[OptionsDepth @OptionsDepth]

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[NathanTrades🔎 @nat_trades]

@froggytrade

[Lob Wedge Cap @vader7x]

$SPX Last Sunday at 7,600 we asked: who's the marginal buyer? Friday answered. Biggest one-day drop of the year. NFP 172K vs 80K est. Semis -9.5%. The 0.42 put/call we flagged needed 5 sessions to bite, not 10.

The Lie (our weekly -5 to +5 score for whether the index trend is confirmed underneath.. breadth, positioning, vol, rotation) was -2 at the highs. We published the kill condition in plain English: $AVGO miss Wednesday. It missed. The hedge bought at the year's cheapest vol went to near max value. The long never set up.. you don't buy a level getting run on a trend day.

No trade is a position.

The Lie now reads -4. Lower than it ever printed at the April bottom, and that's the design: the score is worst early in a break, BEFORE the washout. Real lows leave a signature. Check it yourself:

A/D momentum in the -60s? It's at -23. Total put/call above 1.0? It's 0.97. $VIX above 25? It's 21.5.

Zero of three. That's why the first bounce after a breakdown usually fails. Selling gets exhausted, not scared away.

Meanwhile: October hike odds went 31.5% to 66% in one week (Bloomberg). CPI Wednesday with the Fed in quiet period. 10Y auction same day. $ORCL same night. SpaceX lists Friday.. $75B of new paper into a deleveraging market.

Defense first. The reload comes when fear actually prints.

https://t.co/It6ZbPyz74

[Justin Spittler @JSpitTrades]

$FROG held up well on Friday...

Down just 2.5% on the day is impressive considering the carnage.

Closed above rising 8-day EMA. Finished the week green.

Also, software should outperform in the event of further downside relative to semis/AI Capex. $IGV far less extended than $SMH

[NathanTrades🔎 @nat_trades]

@JC_ParetsX How bout ABT

[NathanTrades🔎 @nat_trades]

@PegasusFund I like it. Similar idea would apply to names like FIX, DE, CMI

[Scot1and 🍀💵 @Scot1andT]

$VIAV 25 day base. nice red to green off the pivot today. - needs to show it can break out though.

[NathanTrades🔎 @nat_trades]

RT @vader7x: $SPX Nine green weeks. ATH. The Lie dropped three points in one week ..biggest move since the April bottom, opposite direction…

[NathanTrades🔎 @nat_trades]

@PurpleDrink_LLC Barnacles are bearish 📝