Downtherabbithole

Living, learning, figuring things out by doing all the wrong things, and continuously falling down rabbit holes.

[Downtherabbithole @Nathan09249386]

@flop_labs @Globalflows What do you think?

[Jared Kubin @JaredKubin]

LIQUIDATION NATION is LIVE
It’s time to level the playing field.
2 minutes on what industry insiders won’t tell you.

[Capital Flows @Globalflows]

We are entering another critical week where the risks are mounting

You should expect people to misunderstand the tensions we are in right now, where positioning risks can trump any type of short-term thesis. There is a reason I lay out all of this in the reports and in the livestreams.

I laid out how my market views and positions have changed here: https://t.co/rHbhYPHJUP

If you want to understand these flows and the larger context, read this: https://t.co/ZQ8Ygx0Q30

And this: https://t.co/BmULHVJlFd

Tomorrow's livestream is reserved for paid subscribers because we will be covering some key new ideas and trades: https://t.co/rFBxpjxJdG

As a reminder, all of the macro models and real time updates for anything are reserved for paid subscribers. All of the educational materials are 100% free for everyone. This is how it always is.

Everything is always laid out for what I AM DOING. Nothing is financial advice (duh)

[Downtherabbithole @Nathan09249386]

Twenty Centuries of Financial Data: What 240 Countries and 2,000 Years Reveal https://t.co/SsjYyBnXpc

[Capital Flows @Globalflows]

The American Exceptionalism Trade
https://t.co/6wxOZNMxld

[Capital Flows @Globalflows]

We're going to win so much, you may even get tired of winning.

And you'll say, 'Please, please, it's too much winning. We can't take it anymore. Mr. Capital Flows, it's too much.' And I'll say, 'No it isn't!

We have to keep winning, we have to win more!

[Alfie Kerswell @_alfiekerswell]

Recent recording with steps on HOW to access the FREE console on July 17th!

https://t.co/Q8WVAOgWCv

[Capital Flows @Globalflows]

I want to explain the most misunderstood factor for Hyperliquid. If what I lay out is going to happen, the price will easily go to $350 this year. 🧵

Right now, everyone is overly fixated on the launch of the ETFs. The Hyperliquid ETFs are a drop in the bucket for the wall of capital that is going to hit the market

This is very straightforward if you understand global interest rates, fx, and the supply of money in the system. Most people have ZERO clue about how these markets function because they have never traded G7 rates. People think they understand liquidity because they traded Bitcoin during a dollar devaluation narrative but when asked about the most important input into macro liquidity, interest rates, they have no clue.

It is IMPOSSIBLE to have a view on macro liquidity and money in the system without understanding interest rates. These are two sides to the same coin.

Let me lay out this thesis very simply: 👇

Interest rates are all about the price you pay for money in the system. FX markets are the flip side of the coin, which is denominated the actual currency you are borrowing relative to other currencies and their respective interest rates.

Why does this matter for Hyperliquid? Because the largest markets in the world are all about interest rates and FX. Bitcoin and crypto are a drop in the bucket for large players who are managing massive balance sheets. If Hyperliquid can provide enough value via liquidity and low-cost leverage, then the largest players in the world will start moving more capital onto the platform to transact in the most important markets, interest rates, and FX.

Simply put, if you have enough liquidity on your platform, the price you pay for leverage can be LOWER than what you might pay somewhere else. Simple example: If you need a mortgage for your house, you are going to try to get the best rate possible. This is you trying to find the "cheapest leverage" possible in the system. If someone offers you a lower interest rate, with no trade offs, people will take it. Many brokerage accounts compete with each other on the margin rates you have to pay in order to use the firms margin.

The same dynamic is true for Hyperliquid. If they can provide attractive margin rates (or what we can funding rates on Hyperliquid), then this is the real value proposition for Hyperliquid. While everyone is focused on ETF flows, you want to ask what are the drivers of value that would catalyze the flows of the largest players to begin using Hyperliquid every single day.

Clearly, the regulatory constraint is holding capital back like a dam holding back water that wants to pour into a new market. But the most important thing to understand is that if the funding rates for interest rates and FX are low enough on Hyperliquid, this begins to attract capital from the largest players in the world. This especially attracts capital from the entire Eurodollar market that is constantly trying to hedge the surplus of dollar liquidity that is in the system due to the dollars reserve currency status and the historic level of trade the US has conducted which has pushed an unprecedented level of dollars through the entire system.

This flow mechanism connected to the larger macro picture is WHY I am so bullish on Hyperliquid. Notice that functionally, no one else has talked about this. They think this is just the regular "crypto cycle" where you buy momentum and fade the price once everyone starts talking about it on the timeline.

The place we are at with Hyperliquid is actually taking advantage of the biggest blind spots for both people in crypto and people in traditional markets. Crypto people have been conditioned to just think in terms of pump and dumps instead of value creation and flow mechanics in the global interest rate complex. Traditional finance people have functionally dismissed crypto as something that is worthless because no one has really provided true value that has lasted.

This is why I wrote this article on the blindspot that existed earlier this year, before Hyperliquid made its massive YTD rally: https://t.co/7E8bMaWOP6

There is a reason that no one is talking about these mechanics. The crypto influencers or VC establishments won't talk about it because they didnt get to invest in Hyperliquid before it launched or get a crypto allocation to schill. On the flip side, the largest institutions won't talk about Hyperliquid because they dont want to draw attention to a market that they havent established a dominant positioning in yet.

"Do you mean to tell me you've finally established a position, so you can price mine?" - The Big Short

My job is a trader. I get paid to hold risk and I have established a position in $PURR which is the largest Hyperliquid treasury company and the only treasury company in the world with a positive P&L right now. It is up over 140% since I originally published the view (see my pinned tweet). But we have only just begun to price what is possible for Hyperliquid and what is possible for $PURR.

Once you realize that Hyperliquid sits in a massive gap in the tradfi and crypto space, then you will realize why $PURR sits as the bridge to BOTH of these.

I continue to hold my $PURR position and it is my strong conviction that Hyperliquid will have a significant rally beyond anyone's expectations and $PURR will be the direct beneficiary of this in addition to adding additional shareholder value on top of HYPE returns.

There are several things that you need to know in order to navigate these changes in Hyperliquid:
1) Understand that we are in a credit cycle melt up that in its very nature is currently sowing the seeds of its own demise. None of this will end well given the amount of liquidity that is in the system but first we are melting up MUCH MUCH HIGHER.
2) Hyperliquid underlying drivers in its value proposition that could catalyze capital aggressively moving onto the platform to access cheap leverage.
3) All of the signals for positioning in global risk assets, interest rates, Hyperliquid, and $PURR.

I will be providing an entire playbook for #1-3 in a livestream tomorrow at 8:30am MST. You will walk away with a playbook for the credit cycle, a model with the code included on mapping funding rates on Hyperliquid, and Tradingview models for monitoring the positioning signals. This will be 100% free for everyone who is a subscriber here. I will send out the links tonight and resend them tomorrow morning so no one misses it: https://t.co/rpJr1XL6FO

Below, I will link the most important tweets and videos I have done thus far that you should review before the livestream tomorrow

Welcome to global macro

HYPERLIQUID

[Capital Flows @Globalflows]

Today, @jaymesrosenthal and I broke down the China economic warfare framework, the Trump-Xi backroom dynamics, the yuan suppression playbook through state-owned banks, and how all of it transmits into cross-border flows.

[Capital Flows Clips @CapFlowsClips]

This idea that the yield curve predicts a recession is so one-dimensional and ridiculous

"The yield curve does NOT predict a recession."

@Globalflows @jaymesrosenthal

[Pushpendra Singh Digital @PushpendraTech]

🚨 BREAKING: China Just Shocked the World with This Bold Move!

China has banned businessmen from profiting off education for kids aged 6–15 😳

No more private school money-making.
No more treating education like a business.

Authorities say: “Children are not a revenue model.”

The goal?
✔️ Reduce family pressure
✔️ Make education more equal
✔️ Kill the profit-driven school system

This decision is now going viral globally and raising one big question:

👉 Should other countries do the same?

[Robert (infra 🏛️⌛️) @infraa_]

https://t.co/I57C4sRNGf

[Mojo @MrMojoRisinX]

Enjoy!
https://t.co/oZhAQmwZiX

[Tiago Forte @fortelabs]

Wait, so the founder of Anthropic is "Amodei," as in "loves god"?

And he leads Anthropic, meaning "human-centered," which is being used in military strikes?

And the creator of ChatGPT is "Altman," as in "an alternative to humans"?

And he leads OpenAI, which is completely closed?

And then there's "Gemini," meaning "two-faced," from a company that promised to do no evil?

And the whole global AI arms race is being driven by people who claimed to be worried about AGI taking over the world?

Either the universe is an extremely cliché writer, or has a brilliant sense of humor

[Benn Eifert 🥷🏴‍☠️ @bennpeifert]

@stevehou i have a phd in economics from a top school and i think economics is nonsense

[Sony Thăng @nxt888]

The most obedient slaves are the ones who think they’re free.

They call their masters "leaders."

They call their chains "laws."

They call their surveillance "safety."

And when someone tries to wake them,

They call it extremism.

[Tiberius @tiberiusfiles]

“Yeah Chinese citizens have far better education and healthcare outcomes, own their own homes and retire far younger, and live longer on average than us US citizens, but my ultra-violent government that deprives me of all of this tells me communism is bad so I believe them”

[Stoic Trader @StoicTA]

I'm sitting on 1,000 ounces of silver bars

bought physical, did what everyone says to do

"Real assets" "Outside the system"
"When everything collapses you'll be glad you have it"

tried to sell some last week, trying to sell it today

refineries won't touch it
dealers lowballing 30% under spot
banks look at me like I'm selling contraband

turns out "owning" something and being able to "exit" something are two very different skills

this is the same trap I see in trading

people hold positions they can't exit
stocks with no volume
options with no buyers

sitting on "value" that only exists on paper

supply & demand lesson learned