Gordon Gekko’s Ghost

NATSEC/CT/CI. Pentagon/Foggy Bottom/ War-zones-a couple of visas later, I observe and give mildly interesting opinions.RT not endorsement.🤘Hook’em

[Gordon Gekko’s Ghost @natsecurity18]

@JackPosobiec Repeal Jones Act

[Gordon Gekko’s Ghost @natsecurity18]

@neontaster Why not just repeal the Jones Act then?

[Gordon Gekko’s Ghost @natsecurity18]

@Noahpinion Or our kids are over tested and could care less about the NAEP. If it ain’t SAT or ACT, why care

[Gordon Gekko’s Ghost @natsecurity18]

@joekent16jan19 Name a time an economic crisis happened and the 🇺🇸 didn’t grow and become stronger as a result. We will be fine, the rest of the world will not. That’s fine. Let 🇨🇳 deal with them. We will be fine

[Gordon Gekko’s Ghost @natsecurity18]

@DanielBShapiro Would like to see examples of them moving away per se? Military-no, as it’s reported their own forces joined with 🇺🇸 during attack. Economic-no evidence. Diplomatic-none whatsoever. If anything 🇺🇸 influence will only grow

[Gordon Gekko’s Ghost @natsecurity18]

Completely agree; an accurate analysis #IranWar‌

[Ida Turan 🇮🇷 ایده توران @iranidaturan]

I disagree.

When you look closely at the details, you see it’s very different from the headlines.

And on the oil sales: sanctions are still in place; they’ve just slapped a 60-day waiver on them. This lets the regime sell crude oil and petrochemical products, but only in dollars. It’s a very very important detail here, it means US have full visibility over the transaction, and can actually control it if needed.

These transactions don’t happen instantly, they take 40-50 days to process. And throughout that whole period, if the regime steps out of line, Trump can block the payments with a single move.

As an Iranian reading this, I see how big a risk the Iranian side is taking (keep in mind they still haven’t even dared to bury Khamenei yet).

All this media noise is aimed at the domestic audience inside the regime, to sell the narrative that “this isn’t surrender!” (even though it is, and the hardliners know it).

[Gordon Gekko’s Ghost @natsecurity18]

@JoshYoung Terrible bet on both

[Ida Turan 🇮🇷 ایده توران @iranidaturan]

Trump is literally cooking the Islamic regime from the inside, and today we witnessed yet another public crack in the system.

Most people are completely fixated on this MoU, treating it as the main story. In reality, it is largely just a pretext, a tool being used to advance much deeper games. The real game playing out is something else entirely, and people should be looking elsewhere to understand what’s truly happening.

Few days ago, one faction of the regime’s gangsters has been faking letters supposedly from Mojtaba Khamenei to claim that negotiations with the US were personally approved by him. Others quickly learned the trick and started playing the same game.

Today, one of the rivals claimed they have access to Mojtaba’s confidential letters with the current negotiating team. It turned into a full-blown public shitshow. Honestly, it was both ridiculous and entertaining. The pigs are turning on each other.

Let me lay out the full picture for you.
Khamenei, to coup-proof his rule, massively empowered the IRGC and turned it into a powerful state-within-a-state. But then he became afraid of his own creation, so he deliberately prevented power from concentrating in any single hand and allowed different competing cartels to form inside the IRGC.

Most of the top figures in these cartels are deeply corrupt, ideology is just a facade for them.

At the same time, he personally cultivated a loyal base from the poorest and most broken layers of society: fanatical, powerless people who were extremely loyal to him personally and would attack anyone on his command like rabid dogs.

After his death, the IRGC clearly took full control of the country, but they are far from united. They’re now openly fighting each other for the real seat of power.

Trump, with his deal-making style and the huge carrot of money, especially after the naval blockade pushed them into real poverty and begging, has brilliantly pushed these corrupt elements forward.

This has created open clashes with the more ideological factions. One of these hardliner cartels belongs to Saeed Jalili and includes figures like the cleric Mahmoud Nabavian, a sitting MP.

Today, Nabavian went on state TV and announced he wanted to reveal Mojtaba Khamenei’s confidential letters criticizing the negotiating team and the current deal. He started reading them live, but they cut him off mid-sentence. The network later called it a serious violation, announced legal action, and even one of the directors resigned and was rebuked.

This was their last desperate attempt to stop the negotiating team from reaching Geneva. But it failed. Just hours later, the other side, Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf and his crew, still made it to Geneva.

A few days ago, they even put the approval of this Memorandum of Understanding to a vote in the Supreme National Security Council. Everyone approved it except one person, and many believe that lone dissenter was Saeed Jalili, from the same cartel as Nabavian.

Meanwhile, another IRGC cartel, Khatam al-Anbiya Headquarters, tried to sabotage the surrenderist negotiators’ trip to Geneva by claiming they had closed the Strait of Hormuz. CENTCOM immediately clapped back and said the Strait is wide open (and ships are moving freely). Perfect own-goal.

Trump knows exactly what he’s doing. He understands these animals better than anyone. He’s weakening the regime from within, without firing a single shot. Just as he predicted, as soon as the corrupt ones smelled real money, they sold out the entire regime and its ideology without hesitation.

Let the man cook, trust the process.

[Gordon Gekko’s Ghost @natsecurity18]

@Mpolymer Shooting from the hip. AMB Barrak would never allow this, nor the bankers backing Syrian rebuilding efforts. Iran insiders will let Hez flounder like Hamas

[Gordon Gekko’s Ghost @natsecurity18]

@JavierBlas @opinion It’s not a weapon if the guns pointed at your own head. 🇨🇳 desperately can’t afford a global recession as it’s dependent on overseas consumption more and more.

[Michael Weiss @michaeldweiss]

Look, I’ll save you the headache.

Kiriakou was known for two things *before* he unmasked an undercover CIA officer, went to prison for doing so, got out, and then went to work for the Russians.

When he was stationed in Greece, he illegally parked his car at the port in Piraeus next to the ferry boarding area. The police told him to move it. Kiriakou locked himself inside and refused to get out of his car and said he didn’t have to, he was from the U.S. Embassy. Caused an unnecessary diplomatic stink over a fucking parking violation, which became notorious in the building — although not nearly as notorious as what else happened to him in Greece.

His wife had an affair. When Kiriakou found out about it, he behaved in a manner unbefitting of any officer of any clandestine service, except maybe Russia’s, which is why he’s a good fit for them now. As he’ll be the first to tell you, he’s got bills to pay.

Big on the IRGC-aligned podcast bro circuit but knows nothing, is aggressive in his ignorance, and generally held to be a laughingstock at his former organization. I believe the kiddos call this being a “whistleblower,” which is even more hilarious.

Thank you for attending my TED Talk.

[Gordon Gekko’s Ghost @natsecurity18]

@PaulRieckhoff You do realize Lincoln was a prized wrestler, right?

[Gordon Gekko’s Ghost @natsecurity18]

@alexrblackwell @michaeldweiss GSO-ARSO-DCM OMS-EFM if Pol chief

[Gordon Gekko’s Ghost @natsecurity18]

Can’t wait for the #knicks to lose the series 😂. Nothing is better than the #knicks fan base when they blow it and choke. They will make an espn series on it. This series will cement wemby status as an icon.

[Gordon Gekko’s Ghost @natsecurity18]

@JavierBlas Fed would be forced to choose between inflation vs recession. History has shown they would keep rates low to avoid economic recession which 🇨🇳 does not want as well

[Gordon Gekko’s Ghost @natsecurity18]

@INArteCarloDoss Regional super power? By being isolated and broke? They can’t even protect their own country, 70% of their drones and middles failed last night

[Gordon Gekko’s Ghost @natsecurity18]

Fanboy analysis. Iran has been idiotic in their response and continues to dig themselves deeper.

[Brett Erickson @BrettErickson28]

Every step of the way, Iran has played their hand to perfection. Strategic. Methodical. Calculated.

The United States, in contrast, has been ill-prepared, scrambling, and behind the curve.

Nowhere is this more clear than the recent US strikes and hour ago on an Iranian vessel near Kharg Island with a Hellfire missile, followed subsequently by immediate retaliation from Iran on US bases in Kuwait and Bahrain.

What we see taking place here is a United States that knows they are boxed in. They have no military options that would have even a moderate likelihood of success, so now they are hoping... praying, that Iran does not have the capabilities or willingness to resume to war. This is the window the United States hopes to take advantage of.

If Iran, a country that is battered and bruised, yet still standing, is unwilling or incapable of returning to war, the United States gains immediate leverage at the negotiating table. This means that the US can continuously make probing and strategic strikes at Iran without a fear of retaliation.

Iran knows this, and they are responding the same way they have done throughout the entire war. Strategic. Methodical. Calculated.

Throughout this "hot ceasefire", we have seen the United States continually throw jabs at Iran. No haymakers, nothing overly significant, but enough that Iran has to either respond, or allow for them to continue.

And this is exactly what they did when they struck targets in Kuwait and Bahrain.

In response to the early probing strikes from the United States, Iran has responded in a very much "tit for tat" manner. You strike me, I strike you only to the level in which the pain is equated. But here's the problem... the United States can play that game. All day long baby.

So now, we see Iran turning to a slightly different tactic.

150%.

Under this strategy, Iran seeks to respond in a manner that is meant to deter future probing strikes, jabs, from the United States. But this is a tricky line to walk...

Under-escalate, and you guarantee future strikes. Over-escalate, and you could see a full resumption of the war.

But Iran, as they have throughout the war, continues to play as if they have been preparing for this exact scenario for 47 years... because they have.

Instead of over-escalating by closing down the Bab al-Mandeb Strait, or targeting Gulf energy infrastructure, or lashing out at civilian vessels in the Strait, they take the perfectly proportionate step.

The problem now for the United States, is that their probing strategy has now backfired. Iran has shown, by striking these targets in Bahrain and Kuwait, that they are not only WILLING to go back to a hot war... they are capable of doing so EFFECTIVELY.

A move from Washington meant to increase US leverage at the negotiating table by seeing Iran back down, and has produced the exact opposite effects.

Iran is emboldened. They're willing. And most damning of all... they're capable.

[Gordon Gekko’s Ghost @natsecurity18]

@joshrogin 🇨🇳 will never allow this. It can’t afford the world to fall into recession.

[Gordon Gekko’s Ghost @natsecurity18]

@Mr_Andrew_Fox Name a time where the world economy crashed and the 🇺🇸 didn’t benefit? Lowers interest rates/refined debt/lowers mortgage rates? World crash? 🇨🇳 won’t allow it to happen, will continue to curb demand and keep oil below 135 a barrel

[Dmitri Alperovitch @DAlperovitch]

The biggest transformation in modern warfare for the US military isn’t happening in drones, as important as they are. It’s happening in space.