i think the real reason most of you don’t see ai the same way i do is because you don’t have adhd
i am hyper curious about a variety of topics and LLMs instantly fill that curiosity gap
thus i gain more knowledge from a wide variety of domains that improve my main skill set
My simplistic worldview = society is shaped by high-variance idealists, not incrementalists.
High-agency, obsessive and resourceful humans who truly believe they will bend reality to their will, vs people who just want marginal improvements and the easy battles that come with them.
The trajectories of their lives bend only towards momentous outcomes, or spectacular failures: no in-between. The deciding factor is often integrity.
Whenever I find and bet on one, I know I’m supposed to double, triple, quadruple down as they are exceedingly rare.
Really feels like the crypto complex is on edge of failure. Amongst my crypto friends their cynicism and pessimism is worse than I’ve ever seen it. The casino is empty. Only bright spots are Bitcoin and RWA/stables (ie where tradfi is active).
Lot of crypto companies have to be contemplating full pivot.
For crypto to survive it has to embrace being a security. Generate profits. Pay dividends. There’s no other way.
My current best view:
Trump lets tariff reactions play out for a few weeks. Sees the trend of capitulations and is emboldened to keep going. He fields offers from everyone. Negotiates with no one.
Then brings everyone to MaL in a month or two and puts an offer on the table: Bretton Woods 2.0. It’s simpler and more effective to have one Grand Bargain than negotiate piecemeal with 80 countries+.
I am focused on figuring out what terms matter most for the MaL Accords. I have a few in mind which are obvious and would kingmake the US.
I don’t buy this whole “end of US hegemony”. This is the moment to go for the jugular and establish world order around America.
$BTC hodlers need to learn to love tariffs, maybe we finally broke the correlation with Nasdaq, and can move onto the purest form of a fiat liquidity smoke alarm.
Blackrock’s BUIDL fund paid $4.17M in dividends in March. $3.5M of that was paid out on Ethereum.
In total, of the ~$25M the fund has paid out, $22.8M of it has been paid to Ethereum.
Ethereum is the clear choice for institutions.
Data from @Securitize
Some miscellaneous thoughts from Hong Kong this week
1) no mention of NFTs anywhere at Art Basel, no mention of memecoins anywhere
2) investment banks are pushing China revival tech thesis aggressively now. DeepSeek, valuation gap, innovation wave. Southbound flows are large, main board shellco prices are back to 200m hkd or so
3) family offices are watching Saylor closely and considering if theres demand for them to convert their own companies
4) very strong belief that BTC is digital gold, very high cynicism toward crypto tech thesis and crypto venture. Regulated custodian and exchange plays also interesting to some