Nicolai Boserup

Law • Development finance • Geopolitics • M&A

[Nicolai Boserup @nboserup]

You think Trump will be tough on China?

You are in for a surprise.

Trump’s foreign policy now seems clear: A🧵

1. Trump seeks a Grand Bargain with China-Russia dividing the globe into spheres of influence, to be agreed/announced in steps over 4 years (+ secret protocols)
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[Nicolai Boserup @nboserup]

Russian barbarism

[Regina Bauer 🇪🇪🇺🇦 @petite_michelle]

This is what russian occupation means.

[Derrick Wyatt's Law and Policy Blog @BlogWyatt]

https://t.co/jXQC6PwiyP
Fact that US is considering buying the Chagos Islands from Mauritius and not the UK indicates the US endorses the UK position on the now suspended UK/Mauritius agreement recognising Mauritius sovereignty and leasing back Diego Garcia.

[Brendan Simms @brendanpsimms]

Yesterday marked 84 years since the conclusion of the Battle of Midway. Let it be a reminder that deterrence and defence are not decided overnight. The crucial decisions at Midway had been made years earlier in shipyards, factories, and training schools.

https://t.co/pgkVoGiDkx

[Nicolai Boserup @nboserup]

@brendanpsimms Fascinating. Based on those four Rs I can see why India, Japan, Brazil and Germany are not (yet) included. I’d be curious about why France is not included?

[Brendan Simms @brendanpsimms]

I assess true Great Power status using four criteria (The Four Rs) 🇬🇧🇺🇸🇨🇳🇷🇺:

Resources (economic, military, demographic strength), Reach (global influence and power projection), Reputation (recognition by others and belief in their own status), and Resilience (capacity to absorb shocks and sustain competition over time).

https://t.co/JTLixuvJ6S

[Dmytro Kuleba @DmytroKuleba]

Today, Zelenskyy, Starmer, Macron, and Merz meet in London. The format itself is worth welcoming, even if the EU has once again been left on the sidelines.

The real question is what mindset the E3 brings to the table.

Zelenskyy set the tone with his open letter to Putin. While his European partners likely share its substance, they are unlikely to be ready to openly put their signatures beneath it.

But they do see that Russia is not looking for middle ground. It is set on war. Seeking a balanced compromise with an aggressor committed to conquest is not diplomacy. It is self-deception.

The predecessors of today’s leaders understood this well.

Symbolically, eighty-five years ago, London hosted another gathering. In June 1941, representatives of fourteen Allied governments and liberation movements met there to unite against Nazism.

The final London Declaration was not about ending a war. It was about uniting those willing to win it and shape the peace that followed.

One can only hope today’s meeting is guided by the same logic.

Europe’s prosperity depends on its security. Europe’s security depends on Ukraine. It is time to turn that truth into effective policy. And fast.

[Derrick Wyatt's Law and Policy Blog @BlogWyatt]

https://t.co/djQdv016Sg
I have doubts about the costs/utility of the UK's aircraft carriers
escorting them is beyond the ability of the Royal Navy without allied back-up
could more, say, drone (aerial and seaborne/undersea) -capable frigates offer a bigger "bang for buck"?

[Phillips P. OBrien @PhillipsPOBrien]

I'm not sure the Irish understand the damage the recent story of their pumping economic support into Putin's war machine is doing to their reputation in Central/East Europe. The idea of Ireland standing on the side of the oppressed against imperialists is gone, probably forever.

[Nicolai Boserup @nboserup]

Well deserved

[Caolan @CaolanReports]

Completely blown away by this.

Today I was recognised by President Zelenskyy with the Order of Merit. A profound honour.

Right now powerful people want the truth about Ukraine buried. It’s a privilege to be able to tell it. ❤️🇺🇦🔥

[Nicolai Boserup @nboserup]

Even if not realistic in the short term, it should be a stated long-term policy

For two important reasons:

1️⃣To provide clarity domestically and resolve externally to the Russians and their collaborators (USA, India, PRC)

2️⃣To be able to effectively seize future opportunities

[Joni Askola @joni_askola]

While it is not a realistic goal, ideally, Russia should be demilitarized and denuclearized to pose less of a threat to its neighbors.

Because that is unlikely to happen, its neighbors need to be more militarized than they currently are

[Nicolai Boserup @nboserup]

Ireland is turning into a grotesque caricature of a villain state

[Mira of Kyiv 🇺🇦 @reshetz]

“It’s unfortunate in terms of the war effort in Eastern Europe” when speaking on sponsoring Russia’s war machine is the most unbombed sentence ever pronounced

[Nicolai Boserup @nboserup]

The Russians have transformed frontline parts of beautiful Ukraine into a grotesque Hieronymus Bosch hellscape

[Olena Tregub @OTregub]

Apocalyptic bird nest.

A Russian glide bomb knocks down a tree in Donbas. From the shattered branches rolls out a tiny bird’s nest.

Made of drone fiber-optic cable.

Source: Oleg Malchenko

[Nicolai Boserup @nboserup]

A big thank you to Ukraine from all free Baltic coast countries

[Yaroslav Trofimov @yarotrof]

These Ukrainian strikes on the Russian Baltic Fleet have limited impact on the war inside Ukraine, but do have a significant impact on Russia’s ability to threaten the Baltic states and other EU/NATO members on the Baltic Sea, including Poland.

[Nicolai Boserup @nboserup]

This👇

[Noah Smith 🐇🇺🇸🇺🇦🇹🇼 @Noahpinion]

If Russia invaded Europe, Europe would need to produce lots of drones to defend itself. But China could just cut off exports of the components Europe can't manufacture by itself -- thus allowing Russia to win the war.

This is a critical vulnerability.

https://t.co/37iyRtvF8R

[Derrick Wyatt's Law and Policy Blog @BlogWyatt]

Options like mitigating the loss of the US nuclear umbrella by the UK acquiring its own airborne nukes for "forward deterrence" like France, and/or nuclear-sharing with allies, could have been urged by Blair if he had not insisted on portraying Trump as a reliable ally.
Blog soon

[Brendan Simms @brendanpsimms]

Great to see so many of you at my talk with @CSNS_UK , chaired by Andrew Ehrhardt. An excellent way to launch The Return of the Great Powers.

[Nicolai Boserup @nboserup]

Good job, the Irish war profiteering is despicable

[Caolan @CaolanReports]

Lots of pro russian Irish people telling me to ‘go to the front lines & leave Ireland’

I’ve just come here from Nikopol. The press armour is still in my bag. I watched Russian drones hunt civilians with my own eyes. That’s why the indifference here is so despicable, especially while Ireland still supplies alumina to Russias war machine.

I’m not going anywhere. This investigation continues

[Caolan @CaolanReports]

Lots of pro russian Irish people telling me to ‘go to the front lines & leave Ireland’

I’ve just come here from Nikopol. The press armour is still in my bag. I watched Russian drones hunt civilians with my own eyes. That’s why the indifference here is so despicable, especially while Ireland still supplies alumina to Russias war machine.

I’m not going anywhere. This investigation continues

[Nicolai Boserup @nboserup]

Correct

[Aleksandar Djokic (Александар Джокич) @polidemitolog]

In the early 1990s, unlustrated and undemocratic Russia was let into Western international institutions, into the Western free market, into the Western information space. Cooperation, trade, and influence were given to Russia on a plate, and they used it to rebuild their empire. Russia apologists would sell you the Versailles Treaty sob story, when the true lesson is: never let Russia back in until it's completely transformed, contain it like a virus.

[Nicolai Boserup @nboserup]

Correct

[Joni Askola @joni_askola]

When Russia finally cracks and offers to negotiate, expect a flood of Western politicians to pressure Ukraine into a bad deal.

We need to call out this political cowardice before it ruins a historic chance to defeat Russian imperialism.

The structural foundations of the Russian war machine are cracking under immense pressure. Russia's overall situation is deteriorating, and while the endgame might take a while, Moscow will eventually be forced to look for a diplomatic way out. They will try to look reasonable by offering small compromises.

This is where the danger peaks. Our Western governments are heavily populated by leaders who will panic and see this as an opportunity to wash their hands of the conflict. Out of sheer cowardice, they will try to bully Ukraine into accepting whatever deal Russia puts on the table.

We must state clearly that Ukraine cannot accept this betrayal. The power to decide when to make a deal belongs strictly to the Ukrainian people, not to anxious Western politicians. The few brave governments in our alliance must stand up to the cowards and ensure Ukraine has the backing to stay the course.

The ultimate goal cannot be a temporary ceasefire. Russian imperialism will remain a direct threat to the entire continent for as long as we tolerate its existence. To make Europe safe, we must use this exact opportunity to defeat it completely. This is a time for strength, not capitulation