4⃣🔷 Kilmarnock – 4th place (3rd Place entry point); minimum estimated earnings €900k
🏙️ Despite Kilmarnock having a smaller population than Dundee, Paisley, East Kilbride, Livingston, Dunfermline, Hamilton, Cumbernauld, Inverness and Perth – this season they are our 4th best club and have been one of the stories of the season under manager of the year nominee Derek McIness
👏 Finishing 4th with relative ease is a definite overachievement but absolutely deserved after their performances this season. The reward is entry into the Europa League QR2
🆕 This is different from last year where they would have entered in the Conference League. This is due to the increase in teams in all three tournaments, all leagues ranked 6th to 12thnow enter two teams in the Europa league instead of the usual 1
🆓 Every team in European qualification can only be eliminated from Europe once they are in the Conference League, so EL QR2 is a “free hit”.
🌱 Kilmarnock will be an unseeded team in QR2 & possible opponents as it stands include Ajax🇳🇱 (Ajax still have a slim chance of being promoted to the league phase after rebalancing), Braga🇵🇹 Molde🇳🇴 Hapoel Beer-Sheeva🇮🇱 Rapid Vienna🇦🇹 Rijeka🇭🇷 Omonia Nicosia🇨🇾 Trabzonspor🇹🇷 & Cercle Brugge🇧🇪
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IF THEY WIN EL QR2
🎩 The QR3 draw takes place before QR2 & is based on the higher team’s coefficient. Therefore if Kilmarnock’s QR2 opponents are a seeded team in QR3 then, were Killie to pull off a shock and win QR2 they would essentially be a seeded team for QR3 as the draw would already be completed
🌱 So for example the QR3 draw could be (the winner of Kilmarnock vs e.g. Rapid Vienna) Vs one of 7 unseeded QR3 teams (examples could be winners of ties involving Trabzonspor, Cercle Brugge, Servette, Lugano, Kryvbas) Therefore QR2 could well be harder than QR3 for Kilmarnock
🔽 If they were to then lose EL QR3, they drop into the Conference League Playoff meaning just ONE more tie between them and 6 league phase fixtures.
🤯 However, if they were to win EL QR3 then by winning those two rounds, Kilmarnock would have guaranteed themselves league phase football
🎩 They would be into the Europa League Playoff (where Hearts🇱🇻 enter) & the draw again takes place before QR3, based on whoever had the highest coefficient between Kilmarnock and their (likely) unseeded QR3 team
🌱 Kilmarnock would therefore almost certainly be unseeded in the Europa League playoff round and face a tough tie, with the same level of opponent mentioned in the Hearts tweet
🤑 However, win the EL PO and it would be Europa league phase entry with minimum estimated earnings of €6.1m before ticket sales
💧 Lose the tie & they’d drop into the Conference League phase with minimum estimated earnings of €4.8m (explained below)
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IF THEY LOSE EL QR2
💧 Then Kilmarnock drop to Conference League QR3. There would then be two rounds between themselves and the League phase, lose either and they are eliminated from Europe and receive the elimination payment (dependent on round eliminated, €550k QR3 elimination fee, or €750k PO elimination fee) plus the participation fee of €175,000 for every round played
💰 The Europa League finances are in the Hearts posts, and the reason Kilmarnock should receive a good share in the value pillar is discussed in the media rights section of the Celtic post
The Conference League phase MINIMUM earnings for all 36 teams is €3.28m
Broken down:
Starting fee: €3.17m
Value Pillar: €0.085m-€3.06m (36 shares)
Performance: €0.4m per win & €0.133m per draw; €0.028m for finishing 36th & €1.01m for finishing 1st
📈 In addition to this guaranteed minimum of €3.28m, Kilmarnock would receive €175k x 3 (€525k) for playing in three qualifying rounds + (to be confirmed in the summer following UEFA’s ranking of media deals) earn at least €1m through the value pillar, giving their minimum of €4.8m
❌ This excludes ticket revenue and any performance related payments for points won and finishing anywhere above last place in the table
Finishing 24th for example, and reaching the knockout round would add at least another €1m
(Tweet 5/6 - Kilmarnock 🔷4⃣)