Andres Hernandez

[Andres Hernandez @NegativeZeeRo]

@mikepat711 It's Groundhog Year.... again.

[Andres Hernandez @NegativeZeeRo]

@mikepat711 I have a "No Thanos!" sign

[Andres Hernandez @NegativeZeeRo]

@AJamesMcCarthy The reporting around here is getting fierce!

[Andres Hernandez @NegativeZeeRo]

@wholemars Sounds like a job for agentic AI.
I'll expect the rest of the EU to have FSD tomorrow.

[Andres Hernandez @NegativeZeeRo]

@bradsferguson It's the wrong time to make this deal anyway. In 2 years, when the rest of the world has self driving Teslas everywhere, the Indian government will be under more pressure to join the developed world. They will want to avoid the optics of being stuck in the dark ages.

[Andres Hernandez @NegativeZeeRo]

@wholemars Unless the domino that falls is at the end... then the chain is unreacted.

[Andres Hernandez @NegativeZeeRo]

@teslaownersSV Also, those colonizing America were arriving at a location with existing resources and and environment that supports life. Both the Moon and Mars require humans to being their own resources and environment. That requires transporting a lot more mass than historical colonizers.

[Andres Hernandez @NegativeZeeRo]

@mikepat711 Oh. You mean that impatient, jealous feeling of seeing my cousin get an N64 and my brother getting a bicycle while I just sit there, empty handed - waiting for 'Santa' to finally find something, anything, that had my name on it?
Yup, FSD updates nail that feeling.

[Andres Hernandez @NegativeZeeRo]

@wholemars Well, it is falling at the speed of light you know. You really got to be on your toes.

[Andres Hernandez @NegativeZeeRo]

Given the slope of tsla 12mo valuation outlook, there is a huge difference between "lock-up ends" and "2yrs".
What gives you confidence that they would wait for the lock-up to end before making an announcement? I don't see them being linked.
Either way, that would still be far too soon for me

[Andres Hernandez @NegativeZeeRo]

@SawyerMerritt Over 10yrs? So mainly just holding its value after currency debasement/inflation?

[Andres Hernandez @NegativeZeeRo]

@pbeisel How do you think it will handle vehicles that can only fit/reach specific stalls? Will there be a "skip me" option to let the next person in the queue have a space that you can't use? Or maybe you request a specific stall when you arrive, but it defaults to first available.

[Andres Hernandez @NegativeZeeRo]

@SawyerMerritt @RtaxiTracker Slowly at first... and then... one at a time.

[Andres Hernandez @NegativeZeeRo]

@mikepat711 I already have one of ME, and frankly, that's already too much. 20k of me would be absurd.... or at best a really confusing multiverse movie.

[Andres Hernandez @NegativeZeeRo]

Are the professors from MIT and UofM also "next level stupid" by association?
This seems like a rather hasty and emotional judgment.... when I'm used to more level-headed thinking from you.
I don’t believe Sanders is anti-AI. Even Elon has said there's a 20% chance AI turns out badly for humans. Is a 20% chance of extinction not worth even a little caution?
I think we all understand that sacrificing 'progress' for 'caution' only works if it's done on a global scale - otherwise it just puts us at a disadvantage.
I don't have much confidence that we could actually get the whole world to cooperate. But having the conversations seems prudent. Racing down a dark mountain road with the pedal to the metal and one eye closed also seems 'next level stupid.
If all the AI companies were biotech labs developing super-germs (that were 'designed' to help us), and spraying their daily concoction into the atmosphere at major cities, we would all be pretty alarmed.

[Andres Hernandez @NegativeZeeRo]

@thejefflutz I Have heard you many times tamp down TSLA fears regarding Nvidia developing a rival FSD solution for other Auto OEMs..... mostly claiming that Nvidia's product is more of a development toolkit rather than a plug-n-play FSD solution.
Grok characterizes their offering quite differently - essentially saying that it is a plug-n-play solution that OEMs can "fine tune" if they want specific brand differentiation. Curious if this causes you to update your mental model.
https://t.co/3uhXWSdkXZ

[X Freeze @XFreeze]

Tesla FSD is the first AI saving lives at scale....on real roads every single day

Road accidents kill 1.19 million people every year - the #1 cause of death for ages 5–29

94%+ of crashes are caused by human error

Tesla’s Full Self-Driving (Supervised) has now surpassed over 9.7 billion miles of real-world data and delivers ~9× safer than human drivers

Scaled across the U.S. alone, this level of safety could save 32,000+ lives per year and prevent millions of injuries

This is "AI saving lives"
Not a benchmark...Not a demo... but reality

[Andres Hernandez @NegativeZeeRo]

Every day, my car tries to park in the wrong driveway - 4 houses down the street.... (it used to work fine and still maps it correctly)
I'll respond that it's my PREFERENCE to park at my own driveway. Parking at the wrong house gives me DISCOMFORT. It's CRITICAL that I don't obstruct OTHER people's driveways.

[Andres Hernandez @NegativeZeeRo]

@pbeisel Long-story-short:
It's safe enough. Safety is not the roadblock. But we don't want an incident to happen, so we won't scale until we get the safer version. The safer version comes next year.

[Andres Hernandez @NegativeZeeRo]

I respect your opinion, Phil... but I didn't hear Elon make the distinction between worldwide and domestic scaling. (He just pulled a Clinton: "what's the definition of 'scale'. ")

What I heard him say:
- v14 is much safer than humans
- v15 would be another level of safety
- the biggest roadblock is not safety, but logistical edge cases (infinite loops, scared vehicles blocking roadways, etc)
-"It would be right to scale robotaxi when we have known safety improvements coming. We have no incidents so far and want to keep it that way."
- v15 isn't expected until EOY or early 2027
- Robotaxi will not be material this year

All of this does suggest that Tesla doesn't intend to scale up robotaxi until v15. (Even though v14 is quite good now and would save lives.) So my interpretation is that we will add more cities with a handful of vehicles here and there....making incremental improvements on v14... not "doubling every month", not "serving half the population", not 2k vehicles by June, not a true ride service with reasonable times .

Maybe they will be able to get past the current operational hurdles on v14. But nothing Elon said on the call suggests that is the case.