@babyfolio +
I'm a long-term investor, but selling before hitting bottom and entering at an even lower price is tempting. In such situations, should one be patient and wait, or trust the company thesis and keep going? How do you manage your psychology in these situations?
@babyfolio Hey man I wanted to ask you this. I started investing at the start of the year—I was only able to watch the April-May rally, because I had no liquidity. I invested in in companies whose narratives I trusted at the start of this June and subsequently they are down -20% in total.
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@_BurakBesenk +
Uzun vadeciyim ama bottom olmadan satıp dhaa düşükten girmek insanın aklını çeliyor. Böyle durumlarda sabredip beklemek mi lazım yoksa şirket tezine güvenip devam etmek mi?
Expect some short term selling in photonics names on the CPO/800V delay headline. The market will paint the whole sector with one brush.
Photonics is not just CPO. CPO is one slice of a much larger stack.
Pluggable transceivers are a $26B market in 2026 growing to $45B by 2030. CPO was modeled at $0.1B this year. The delay barely touches the revenue that actually exists today.
LPO/LRO scales from $1.2B in 2026 to $5B by 2030 and just became more important.
> NPO is the one SemiAnalysis says could accelerate.
>OCS grows from $1B to over $4B and saves power regardless of what happens with CPO.
Sell the headline if you want. But the TAM didn't move.
$AAOI $CRDO $SMTC $MTSI $COHR
Expect some short term selling in photonics names on the CPO/800V delay headline. The market will paint the whole sector with one brush.
Photonics is not just CPO. CPO is one slice of a much larger stack.
Pluggable transceivers are a $26B market in 2026 growing to $45B by 2030. CPO was modeled at $0.1B this year. The delay barely touches the revenue that actually exists today.
LPO/LRO scales from $1.2B in 2026 to $5B by 2030 and just became more important.
> NPO is the one SemiAnalysis says could accelerate.
>OCS grows from $1B to over $4B and saves power regardless of what happens with CPO.
Sell the headline if you want. But the TAM didn't move.
$AAOI $CRDO $SMTC $MTSI $COHR
Borsadaki düşüşü Trump’ın İran söylemlerine bağlayanlar bence olayı yanlış okuyor.
Ortada jeopolitik bir bahane aranıyor ama fiyat hareketi çok daha farklı bir şeye işaret ediyor.
Asıl konu büyük ihtimalle likidite.
SpaceX tarafında beklenen halka arz süreci için fonlar ciddi şekilde nakit topluyor. Eskisinden farklı olarak bu sefer doğrudan Nasdaq’a eklenmesi konuşuluyor ve bu da talebi daha da artırıyor.
8–10 Haziran aralığında ön teklif süreci var ve büyük fonlar bu tarz süreçlerde kenarda durmaz. Zorunlu olarak pozisyon küçültüp nakit yaratırlar.
Piyasada gördüğümüz ani satışın sebebi de bu tarz bir para çıkışı olabilir.
Yani mesele “haber” değil, para akışı.
Olursa yarın böyle bir gün olur, sonra böyle olmaz. Süreç bittiğinde tekrar piyasa döner.
Piyasada çoğu zaman sebep sonradan bulunur ama hareket önce gelir. Şu an gördüğümüz de tam olarak bu olabilir.
Ekde olan görselde zaten satışlar Nasdaq tarafında olduğu bariz.
Yatırım tavsiyesi değildir.
@MB_Hogan@babyfolio hey man I know you are also extremely bullish on $NBIS What do you think about this take? Do you think an investor looking to get into NBIS should wait until Q3?
@jpinsights They’re mostly profiting off of HBM4 IP licensing. They’ve been having problems with delivery. O was able to purchase a small position with 111$ avg