Murray_Nichol

Global Macro Analyst [EM focus] 📈 South African based in London. Expressing opinions, not advice

[Murray_Nichol @nichol_mo]

@ABartonMacro RIP slow start to my week 💀

[Murray_Nichol @nichol_mo]

@tashecon Probably give him a pat on the back and say keep doing what you’re doing to secure a CHP win in 2023

[Murray_Nichol @nichol_mo]

🇹🇷🇷🇺🇿🇦 CEMEA High-Beta Risk Premia: #CBRT credibility deficit keeps $TRY premia elevated

Comparisons in YTD % change in 5Y CDS reflecting the importance of idiosyncratic risks & local stories in delivering EMFX outperformance. $ZAR $RUB

[Murray_Nichol @nichol_mo]

🇹🇷 #Erdogan fires #CBRT Gov Agbal after his second above market 200bp hike. Something that’s always been a risk, given Erdogan’s historic pressure to keep rates low. $TRY back to 8.00, yields through the roof & massive credibility loss for CBRT.

[Ahval @ahval_en]

#Breaking:

Turkey’s Central Cank Chief Naci Ağbal is fired by a Presidential Palace decree

Ağbal appointed to the Bank only weeks ago

[Murray_Nichol @nichol_mo]

@ABartonMacro Enjoy mate!

[Murray_Nichol @nichol_mo]

🇷🇺 #Russia sanctions threats shifting up a gear targeting OFZs & oligarchs may shift the $RUB fading bias if the UK can get the US on board. Worth keeping an eye on.

[Murray_Nichol @nichol_mo]

🇿🇦 #SABC extend negotiations 30 days with unions - increasing the likelihood of a flip flop on hard decisions needed to trim the public sector wage bill. Increasing the likelihood of unions winning and further bailouts for SABC. Fiscal consolidation nowhere to be seen $ZAR

[Murray_Nichol @nichol_mo]

🇿🇦 #SAA Chairwoman’s resignation ahead of the #MTBPS may be an early signal for a big announcement tomorrow. Either govt has agreed to R10bn funding on condition of new management or perhaps an equity partnership is in the pipeline. $ZAR testing 16.10 low on the announcement.

[Murray_Nichol @nichol_mo]

EM FX clawing back some ground against the greenback today with the exception of the Lira - early warning signs of a currency crisis with the #CBRT depleting FX reserves and keeping the overnight swap rate too high. Eyes on $MXN & $ZAR for some short-term day trades 🇿🇦🇲🇽

[Viraj Patel @VPatelFX]

Strong rally in US & UK bonds a reminder that 'twin deficits' (trade & fiscal deficits) are only a problem if they are difficult to fund. As a former BoE Governor once said...you need to rely on the "kindness of strangers". Right now these strangers are being extra kind $USD $GBP

[Viraj Patel @VPatelFX]

Worth noting if 2009 is anything to go by the nominal $USD index probably still has room to go higher in 2020 before turning lower in 2021. Much uncertainty on growth outlook given unprecedented lockdown. Fed has also moved very quickly to address $USD liquidity relative to 2009

[Murray_Nichol @nichol_mo]

interesting ING analysis shows better rated Asian sovereigns as post-Covid winners. Supports my theory that de-globalisation impulse may see fortification of regional trade-blocs & increased polarisation. More resilient, IG rated Asian sovereigns ideally placed to outperform

[Chris Verrone @verrone_chris]

More fuel for the ongoing reversion trade... flows into counter-cyclicals are extreme, flows away from cyclicals equally as extreme... spread between the two never wider. $SPX @StrategasRP #stocks #Powell

[Murray_Nichol @nichol_mo]

🇿🇦 #Moodys downgrade should have been priced into the bond market unless Covid-19 has taken traders eyes off the ball. been a near certainty for months with limited effort to generate fiscal consolidation, energy security & growth through reform. Monday will be interesting $ZAR

[Viraj Patel @VPatelFX]

That high-beta risky asset Gold is dropping like a stone again. This is just straight-up liquidation of portfolios $XAU

[Robin Brooks @robin_j_brooks]

All day I've been getting messages about something bad unfolding in credit markets. If you look at current LEVELS, we're a long way from the kind of distress markets saw during the financial crisis in 2008/9. If you look at the SPEED of recent moves, the picture is more worrying.

[Murray_Nichol @nichol_mo]

Bloomberg commentators ahead of La Garde’s #ECB speech today...#helicoptermoney 💶🔥🚁

[Murray_Nichol @nichol_mo]

🇬🇧 Interesting #BOE outcome with strong hold split within the mpc. Guidance from Carney is the key element - showing uncertainty over policy trajectory and erring on the side of caution to retain optionality in 2020 despite data tilting to the weaker side. $GBP holding 1.30 💷

[Murray_Nichol @nichol_mo]

🇿🇦 #SARB cuts rates 25bp. A much needed cut with growth nowhere to be seen, but unlikely to be the catalyst to a full economic turnaround. Fiscal consolidation, reform momentum and Eskom issues need to be addressed to restore investor confidence $ZAR

[SA Reserve Bank @SAReserveBank]

The MPC decided to reduce the repurchase rate by 25 basis points to 6.25% per annum.

[Murray_Nichol @nichol_mo]

🇬🇧 UK core inflation comes in 0.3% lower than expectations supporting the more dovish tilt reflected in the UK swaps market & $GBP. Still questionable whether Jan mpc will deliver a 25bp cut, but further disinflationary pressures & weak data should force the BOE’s hand eventually