Everyone says Singapore property is a great investment.
But did it actually beat the stock market over 30 years?
I ran the numbers across condo, landed, HDB 4-room and 5-room — vs the S&P 500.
The answer will surprise you. [1/8]
I promise this will be the best 20 min you spend today! Robotics: Endgame, the sequel to my last year's Sequoia AI Ascent talk, "Physical Turing Test". I laid out the roadmap for solving Physical AGI as a simple parallel to the LLM success story. Be a good scientist, copy homework ;)
And stay till the end, more easter eggs and predictions for your polymarket!
00:30 DGX-1 origin story at OpenAI, I was there in 2016 signing with Jensen and Elon. Heading to the Computer History Museum!
01:42 The Great Parallel
03:31 Robotics, the Endgame
03:39 Why VLAs fall short
04:32 Video world models as the 2nd pretraining paradigm
06:09 World Action Models (WAM)
07:46 Strategies for robot data collection and the FSD equivalent to physical data flywheel for robot manipulation
11:06 EgoScale and the Dexterity Scaling Law we discovered recently
14:00 Physical RL: bridging the last mile
15:39 DreamDojo: an end-to-end neural physics engine for scaling RL in silico
17:00 Civilizational Technology Tree and my predictions for the near future. Spoiler: it's closer than you think.
Thanks to my friends at Sequoia for inviting me back to AI Ascent this year! I had a blast! Last year's talk is attached in the thread if you missed it.
If you want to win a big short you have to accept that U.S. equity market indices have gone up 80% of the time on like every single time frame.
If you want to be in size when “it happens” you must be in perfect peace holding some size through a 5-10% move. That’s life.
At a Korean BBQ in Koreatown last night.
A little girl, maybe six, was sitting at the next table with her halmoni.
She was refusing to eat her galbi.
I assumed she was a picky eater.
Her grandmother sighed and offered her japchae instead.
She refused that too.
Then I overheard what she was actually upset about.
"Halmoni, the chaebol discount is structural. Why does Samsung Electronics trade at 9 times earnings when it dominates global memory?"
I froze.
She pulled out a placemat covered in calculations. Price-to-book ratios for every company in the KOSPI 200.
Circled in red crayon: anything trading below 0.7.
Her grandmother muttered something about cross-shareholdings.
The girl slammed her chopsticks down. "The Value-up Program is real this time, Halmoni. The National Pension Service is voting against bad governance. Activist funds are circling Hyundai Motor."
A waiter walked by. She stopped him.
"Excuse me. Do you know if Korea has been upgraded to developed market status by MSCI yet?"
The waiter did not know.
She nodded grimly and wrote something on her napkin. It said: "PATIENCE."
Her grandmother finally got her to eat by promising to open a brokerage account that supports KRX listings.
I asked the girl her name.
She looked up from her ssamjang.
"Lee. Lee Jae-yong."
But then she added, "The good one. The one who actually returns capital to minority shareholders."
I rotated 15 percent of my portfolio into Korean preferred shares before the kimchi stew arrived.
Trading at a 40 percent discount to commons.
Greatest dinner of my emerging-markets-deep-value career.