NigelsNotebook

In memory of my best racing mate Nigel 'Cromwell' Hellewell

[Chris @NNracingHQ]

@HLTCO Maybe that's the plan. Ship out the world's best referees on 'vetting concerns,' bring in the lads in the stripey shirts who run rounders. Four downs, a coin toss every ten seconds and an ad break before the throw-in. What could go wrong.

[Chris @NNracingHQ]

The Gambling Commission says 97% of accounts will pass financial risk checks "frictionlessly."
The same week, it delayed its decision because it "has not yet fully completed its assessment of the evidence."
It's the same thing. You can't be confident enough to publish the reassuring number and too unsure to act on it. Pick one. Read in full👇

[Chris @NNracingHQ]

@nickluck
@GrainneHurst01
The BGC line on restrictions is a magic trick. Watch the hands. She cites the Gambling Commission's 2-3% figure. That review was about account closures. The actual grievance is restrictions, winning accounts quietly stake-factored down to £2 e/w until they die. Different thing, different numbers. Restrictions don't appear in hers. She knows that. Then the smear: closures are "mostly bonus mining, fraud, money laundering, insider trading." Lumping shrewd punters in with launderers on live TV, because the audience can't separate the categories fast enough to object. The dominant reason books restrict isn't fraud. It's winning. Beating SP, taking early prices, betting e/w on the right races. None of it illegal. Just unprofitable for the layer. So the customer gets strangled. A commercial decision disguised as a compliance one. On TV the reason is crime. In the actual restriction letter to one of my accounts, the reason they gave in writing was "tighter liability management." Not fraud. Not laundering. Liability. i.e. I win, and they'd rather not carry me. You can't refuse to lay a bet to a meaningful stake, then stand there worried about the black market you're feeding. You built the door. You're pushing people through it. Then frowning at the draught. Full article: 👇

[Chris @NNracingHQ]

Here's the irony at the heart of the gambling regulation debate.

The people driving policy in Westminster struggle with the numbers. Statistics are misused, corrected by the Gambling Commission, then used again. Sample sizes are ignored. Correlation is presented as causation.

The people being regulated? They spend their lives working with probability, variance, edge and sample size. A serious punter knows immediately when a statistic is being made to say something it doesn't.

We've been saying it for years. In February 2023, poker professional and pro punter Neil Channing, @SenseiChanning, made the point on the record:

"Feels like they want to use 0.2% when they would like a pat on the back for doing a great job in fighting problem gambling but they use 10% when looking to get more power and the budget that will go with it."

Three years on, nothing has changed. The same inflated figures are still circulating in Westminster. The APPG on Gambling Reform, the group pushing hardest for restrictions, proposed exempting horse racing from advertising bans. Their reasoning? Racing is not generally attended by under-18s. They know racing is different. They said so on the parliamentary record.

And yet affordability checks that have driven £4.3bn a year to the black market apply to racing bettors regardless.

The numerate minority spotted this three years ago. The narrative is more powerful than the evidence and that's the problem.

Full picture: 👇

[Chris @NNracingHQ]

having a little ew punt on Ribee for the Irish Lincoln, 20/1 6 places

[Chris @NNracingHQ]

Today's the day 🟩🟨🟥

Full colour-coded race cards are live on Nigel's Notebook — tissue prices, trainer & jockey stats, Going Bias and more, all in one place.

Do your homework. Find the value.

[Chris @NNracingHQ]

Cheltenham homework starts now 📚🏇

Free tools to help you find value this week:
✅ Colour coded race cards
✅ Trainer & jockey stats
✅ Tissue prices with value assessment

All free 👇

[Chris @NNracingHQ]

Do you want to A. be told what to bet on or B. make your own informed judgement. If the answer is B, start here👇 #Cheltenham2026 #ChetenhamFestival

[NigelsNotebook @nigelsnotebook]

@GLynchRacing Superb from Gentlemans game who was under pressure a lot further out than the runner up. Bravemansgame may well improve but so can the lightly raced winner

[NigelsNotebook @nigelsnotebook]

Like the look of Snow Berry in 4.00 Chelmsford. Cannot work out the 10/1 price

[NigelsNotebook @nigelsnotebook]

@GLynchRacing Just back from 4 days at the Montecastillo in Jerez Spain, stunning course

[NigelsNotebook @nigelsnotebook]

@AnimalRising you need to educate yourselves on how these animals live and are treated but unfortunately you have already decided a solution of genocide for the Thoroughbred breed. How comfortable are you with that? You are trying to be Pol Pot but turning into Hitler..neither a good look

[NigelsNotebook @nigelsnotebook]

@LeonnaMayor if there is some rain I would think he would go well

[NigelsNotebook @nigelsnotebook]

@itvracing @DoncasterRaces Barader

[NigelsNotebook @nigelsnotebook]

@BrookhouseRacin @IrishNatStud Mythical

[NigelsNotebook @nigelsnotebook]

@BrookhouseRacin @IrishNatStud Yellow Flame

[NigelsNotebook @nigelsnotebook]

@decentpatter wid

[NigelsNotebook @nigelsnotebook]

Wolverhampton 27/3
6.00 Hard Solution 12/1 ew
7.00 Coco Jamboo 11/4
8.00 Gavi Di Gavi 4/1
8.30 Daafy 8/1

[NigelsNotebook @nigelsnotebook]

Lingfield tomorrow
1.45 Mabre
4.45 Come To Pass

[NigelsNotebook @nigelsnotebook]

@glinnanejnr @GLynchRacing Doesn't surprise me that a jockey on a Gigginstown horse collects about 8% of the pot while another more generous owner gives the jockey 16% of the pot! Don't know if its the owners that set the bonus but suspect it may be Still not a great return for winning a race at Cheltenham