BREAKING: Saudi Aramco has told its Asian buyers to prepare April loading plans for both its Red Sea port at Yanbu and its Gulf terminal at Ras Tanura, because the world’s largest oil exporter does not know whether the Strait of Hormuz will be open next month.
Buyers choosing the Yanbu bypass will receive only partial volumes. Only Arab Light crude is available through the Red Sea route. And for April loadings, Aramco sharply raised the official selling price for Arab Light to $2.50 per barrel above the Oman-Dubai benchmark, the steepest premium since the war began.
Read those three facts together. Less oil, wrong grade, higher price. That is what April looks like for every refinery in Asia.
Sinopec, China’s largest refiner, has already cut processing by 10 percent. China sources roughly 40 percent of its crude through the Strait of Hormuz and receives a third of its total oil imports via the strait. Japan obtains 95 percent of its crude from the Gulf, with 70 percent passing through Hormuz. Japanese refiners have asked their government to release strategic reserves. The government directed a national storage reserve site to prepare for release. South Korea’s tech-heavy economy, home to Samsung and SK Hynix, depends on Gulf crude for refining and petrochemical feedstock. The Kospi has fallen 12 percent since the war began. India has paid an additional $1 billion for approximately 21 million barrels imported from the region in the first three weeks of March alone. Saudi Arabia supplied 15 million barrels of that total, roughly 70 percent, all routed through Yanbu.
The Yanbu bypass is the only reason any Saudi crude is reaching Asia at all. The East-West pipeline that feeds it has a paper capacity of 7 million barrels per day but was running at roughly 80 percent utilisation as of March 17. Yanbu shipments have tripled from pre-war levels of 1.2 million bpd. But on March 19, Iran struck Yanbu itself. Greece intercepted two Iranian missiles targeting the port. Loadings were briefly halted before resuming. The bypass that is keeping Asia’s refineries running is now a confirmed military target.
Saudi production has already fallen approximately 2 million barrels per day, from nearly 11 million in February to around 8 million, after Aramco shut the Safaniya and Zuluf offshore fields because storage was filling with crude that could not leave through Hormuz. The IEA estimates Gulf producers collectively have cut at least 10 million bpd, roughly 10 percent of global supply. Iraq’s southern fields have plunged 70 percent. Kuwait is shutting wells because it has nowhere to store the oil.
The IEA responded with the largest emergency stock release in history: 400 million barrels. Analysts estimate this buys 73 to 83 days of coverage. The clock started three weeks ago.
Every oil barrel that does not reach an Asian refinery is a barrel that does not become ammonia, urea, naphtha, or diesel. Every fertilizer plant running on imported Gulf energy is now running on a countdown set by the Yanbu pipeline’s capacity, the IEA’s remaining reserves, and the willingness of an insurer in London to cover a port that Iran has already hit with missiles. Aramco did not choose to send Asia less oil in April. Aramco is sending what the pipeline can carry, through a port under fire, at a price that reflects the only grade available through the only route that works.
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@aditya_kondawar He mentioned that India's work productivity is one of the lowest in the world. Does this imply that longer working hours are necessary? Productivity is about doing things efficiently rather than working longer.
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Huge news this week from Meta, Baidu, OpenAI, IBM, Amazon, Figure, Google, NYC, North Korea, Ukraine, Ehang, Nvidia, Blackberry, LinkedIn, Anthropic, and YouTube.
Here's EVERYTHING you need to know (a thread):
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