Goldman finally upgrades Kioxia https://t.co/gvV7GGWRoK to Buy and nearly doubled its PT from ¥48,000 to ¥93,000 and got materially more bullish on Kioxia and, by extension, the NAND cycle.
Peak profits are now expected to continue rising through FY3/29 instead of peaking materially earlier!
(++) Goldman now expects NAND supply tightness to persist through CY28
(++) Peak profits this cycle seen materially higher and more sustainable than previously assumed
(++) Samsung, SK Hynix and Micron continue prioritizing DRAM/HBM investment, limiting NAND supply growth
(++) DRAM procurement risk for enterprise SSDs appears largely resolved
(++) BiCS 8 transition expected to drive lower costs and stronger margins over time
(+) IR Day, quarterly results and continued NAND price increases seen as potential catalysts
Goldman isn’t arguing NAND has become a structurally different industry. They’re arguing the cycle itself has changed because AI demand is arriving while supply growth remains constrained.
Same cyclical industry, much higher earnings ceiling.
If NAND supply remains constrained because memory makers keep allocating capital toward DRAM/HBM, that should support the broader NAND ecosystem for longer than investors currently expect.
https://t.co/gvV7GGWRoK $MU $005930.KS $000660.KS
Do you see why Nittobo’s stock has been moving sideways now? They have no intention of raising prices.
Unlike memory companies, which are aggressively raising prices right now, Japanese companies like this place an extreme emphasis on customer relationships and market share.
This is also one of the reasons I did not buy Nittobo or Ajinomoto. They are too conservative and care too much about their customers.
Japanese companies, please start abusing your pricing power a little… like the memory companies.
Hard to take the “AI bubble” argument seriously when some of the largest companies on earth are still putting up these growth numbers:
• $GOOGL Cloud +63% YoY
• $MSFT Azure +40% YoY
• $META revenue +33% YoY
• $AMZN AWS +28% YoY