India's Biggest Economic Challenge Is not Inflation, Oil, or War - It is an Unskilled Population Addicted to Distraction.
Every time oil prices rise, economists panic. Every time a war breaks out in the Middle East or Europe, television studios declare that India's economy is under threat. And yes, both matter. But neither represents India's greatest economic challenge. The real crisis is unfolding much closer to home.
It is a generation that spends more time consuming content than creating value. A workforce that debates geopolitics without mastering spreadsheets, artificial intelligence, coding, welding, precision manufacturing, sales, finance, communication, or even basic problem-solving. An economy where attention has become the most wasted national resource.
India is one of the youngest countries in the world. That should have been our greatest competitive advantage. Instead, we risk turning our demographic dividend into a demographic liability.
The Age of Endless Consumption
Never before has information been so accessible. Yet never before have so many people spent so much time learning so little. Hours disappear into political debates, celebrity gossip, cricket controversies, influencer reels, conspiracy theories, and outrage cycles that have absolutely no impact on an individual's earning potential. Ask someone how many hours they spent on social media last week. Then ask them how many hours they invested in acquiring a new professional skill. For many, the answer is uncomfortable. We have become experts at commenting on the economy while contributing very little to it.
Degrees Are Not Skills
India has no shortage of graduates. It has a shortage of employable graduates. Companies repeatedly report the same problem: vacancies exist, but suitable candidates are difficult to find. Not because people lack certificates. Because many lack practical skills. The world is rewarding competence, not credentials.
- Can you solve problems?
= Can you communicate effectively?
- Can you sell?
= Can you lead a team?
- Can you analyze data?
- Can you use AI to improve productivity instead of merely asking it amusing questions?
- Can you create something that another person is willing to pay for?
Those are the questions that determine economic success. Not the number of degrees hanging on a wall.
Attention Is the New Currency
The biggest theft today is not of money. It is of attention. Every notification fragments concentration. Every endless scroll delays mastery. Every hour spent consuming outrage is an hour not spent building expertise.
Modern economies reward deep work, specialized knowledge, creativity, and disciplined execution. Algorithms reward emotional reactions. Unfortunately, millions choose the algorithm.
The Coming Divide
Artificial intelligence is not replacing everyone. It is replacing people who refuse to learn. The future will belong to workers who continuously upgrade themselves. Those who combine human judgment with technological tools will become dramatically more productive. Those who stop learning will find themselves competing for fewer opportunities at lower wages. The divide will not be between rich and poor. It will increasingly be between skilled and unskilled.
National Growth Begins With Individual Discipline
Governments can build highways. Businesses can build factories. Universities can build campuses. But none of them can force an individual to develop skills. Economic transformation begins with personal responsibility. Spend one less hour arguing online. Spend one more hour learning. Read instead of scrolling. Build instead of complaining. Acquire one valuable skill every year. Become indispensable.
If millions of Indians made that simple choice, the country's economic trajectory would change more profoundly than any fiscal stimulus, any election promise, or any temporary fall in oil prices.
Wars will end. Oil prices will rise and fall. Markets will recover. But a nation that neglects skill development while surrendering its attention to endless distraction will struggle long after those headlines have disappeared.
The strongest economy is not built by the loudest voices. It is built by the most capable people.
#JaiHind
This photograph shows a Native American man looking over the newly completed transcontinental railroad in Nevada in the year 1869. Let's assume the man was around forty and was born in the 1820s. The changes he must have seen are astonishing.
What this man is looking at, is the beginning of the end of the “quiet” world. Everything he knew is about to change; everything he’s known will soon be forever altered by ‘progress.’
Everywhere that railroad goes, little towns will pop up, towns will turn into cities, and small stores into companies. More trains, followed by trams, cars, motorcycles, and airplanes.
It doesn't get any better than this. Russia sends oil for India to refine and exports to Ukraine. Effectively Ukraine is paying Russia to bomb Ukraine and the only people who are clueless about the circus is Trump and @RealPNavarro. 🤣
I was interviewed by NPR, the American public broadcaster, on Modi's visit to China and Trump tariffs. But they did not use my quotes in the story -- I was told I got cut in the edit. So posting here the gist of what I told them.
Modi is unlikely to cave in to Trump's pressure tactics. India has three red lines, as the EAM has stated. One, it won't open up the agricultural and dairy sectors as part of a trade deal; two, the singled-out attack on India over energy ties with Russia is unfair. China is the largest oil purchaser from Russia; and the EU is a bigger trade partner of Russia India. But the Trump administration is penalising only India. Also, the decision on where India should buy oil from would be taken in Delhi, not in DC. Three, Indian position about the ceasefire with Pakistan (India doesn't even call it a ceasefire) was that it reached bilaterally not through any external intervention. If India compromises on any of these, it would be seen as a weakness, and Modi is unlikely to do it.
This doesn't mean the Indo-US relationship is breaking apart. There's still a possibility to rebuild ties-- but it won't be exclusively on Trump's terms. India is well-aware of the power disparities it has with China. And yes, it needs America to continue to fill the strategic gaps. But if America continues to act like a hostile power, India has other options. Its strategic and defence partnership with Russia is rock solid. It has a vibrant defence partnership with France. India might opt for a more predictable, stable relationship with China, rooted in enhanced economic cooperation, while at the same time continuing to build its capacities through its strategic partnerships with other countries-- with or without the US.
The dominant narrative, particularly in the West, is that Modi is breaking ice with Xi because of Trump tariffs. While Trump's tariffs would certainly have added to the momentum, we shouldn't overlook the fact that the rapprochement between India and China began late last year. Both countries announced a border disengagement deal in October 2024, days before Modi met Xi in Kazan, Russia. Ever since, India and China have been working on improving the relationship. Such efforts got a booster now, and both sides have started taking tangible measures aimed at stability.
While Modi caving in to Trump pressure could be seen as a weakness, won't his travel to China be also seen as weakness? Not necessarily. Unlike the case of Trump team's daily attacks on India, in the case of China, quiet diplomacy has been in the works for months. China is equally interested in stability. Also, multipolarity is one of the foreign policy objectives of India-- a multipolar world and a multipolar Asia. The Indians are also particular about their membership in Brics and SCO, both levers of emerging multipolarity. So even though there are structural issues between India and China, both countries demonstrate an eagerness to set aside those issues to improve the overall bilateral and economic partnership. Such a move is not very unpopular in India-- unlike caving in to America's diktats.
During a phone call with Modi on June 17, Trump said he was proud that he ended the military escalation between India and Pakistan. He mentioned that Pakistan was going to nominate him for the Nobel Peace Prize. He wanted Modi to do the same.
“The Indian leader bristled,” reports NYT (link in the next tweet). Modi told Trump that U.S. involvement had nothing to do with the cease-fire. It had been settled directly between India and Pakistan.
Within a few weeks, Trump announced tariffs against India.
🇦🇺🇮🇹
He is Joe Burns. Former Test Cricketer of Australia .
After his brother's death, he decided to play for Italy to honor their family's root. He had only one goal, to make Italy qualify for the T20 World Cup. Today, he has done that as captain. What a story.
Incredibly, with saturation coverage of the US attack on Iranian nuclear facilities, I can still find no mention whatsoever by the BBC that Israel has nuclear weapons while Iran does not.
A few years ago, it looked like SA was drying up. They played a series in India in 2019 and were unrecognisable, there was no fight. They lost at home, were invisible at the World Cup finishing 7th out of 10, and the administration was lurching from one disaster to another, financial and otherwise. Franchises had begun to look elsewhere. It was painful for lovers of SA cricket and I asked many to name upcoming talents for me and drew a blank. Since then, they have had two very good World Cups and seem to be doing something right. Talents are blossoming again, the SA20 has taken root and hopefully, happier days are round the corner.
Why is it that we somehow never manage to give our cricket icons a chance to finish in style! The only modern great who got the chance to go well was Sachin. Rahul Dravid and VVS Laxman just quietly left after that 2012 tour of Australia. Then Ashwin in Australia. And now Rohit and Virat, two of India's most successful test captains, who have together led India to 52 test wins will just vanish into the sunset without a final game for their fans to say goodbye.
It's a tragedy!
The timing of the #Pahalgam terror attack was extremely significant. It comes just days after the Pakistani army chief made a hate speech against Hindus in which he said "Kashmir is our jugular vein". And it was launched when the US vice president was visiting India (remember the Chittisinghpura massacre of 2000?) and the Indian PM was visiting Saudi Arabia (one of the most influential islamic countries,with which India's relationship is on an upswing) -- the attackers and their handlers wanted to grab maximum global attention and keep the Kashmir issue boiling. And by opening fire at tourists, during the busy summer days, the attackers have also wrecked the roots of the local economy.