nmack

Markets

[nmack @NMackInvest]

One day I hope there will be no stock market, because humankind will have progressed to point where economic pursuits will be futile.

[nmack @NMackInvest]

@VolatilityVIX People keep saying this but it's not just about financial return. Owning your home provides stability. Know a single mom who had to move 2x in 3 years because the owners wanted to sell. Imagine the stress and cost of moving, finding a new school, etc. in a tight rental market.

[nmack @NMackInvest]

@RPKent As a share of total US equity market cap, margin debt sits near 1.87%, close to its long-term average of roughly 1.9-2.3% and below peaks seen in prior cycles like 2000 or 2007 (Grok).

[Quantifiable Edges @QuantifiablEdgs]

Using Claude Code to Backtest with RealTest

https://t.co/r6N8r17G4s

$SPX $SPY #AI

[César A. Hidalgo @cesifoti]

How “bad” is Air Conditioning?
🌞 🇫🇷 🚗

In terms of emissions, a car trip to the beach from Toulouse is equivalent to running a split AC for ~1,000 hours.

That’s 100 nights with the AC running 10 hours!

People won’t think twice about the beach trip, but will send their husband to sleep on the kitchen floor instead of turning on the AC at home (luckily, not me).

France’s anti-AC obsession isn’t compatible with its clean grid and car-centric culture.

To make informed decisions, people need to know these numbers.

[nmack @NMackInvest]

XAUUSD big level at 3940. Then 3450 😱

[nmack @NMackInvest]

ETHUSD has been in a 3.5k range for the past 5 years

[nmack @NMackInvest]

There is no more ethical compass in these corners of financial / prediction markets.

[Scott Nations @ScottNations]

If you don’t know who the sucker at the table is…

We Investigated Polymarket’s Deceptive Marketing Campaign. Here’s What We Found. https://t.co/tEyzujVFLV

[nmack @NMackInvest]

😂

[Douglas A. Boneparth @dougboneparth]

My year is progressing as planned.

[nmack @NMackInvest]

Why is nobody doing anything about the pervasive conflicts on interest in the US administration and Congress? Beats me, really.

[Kyle Griffin @kylegriffin1]

This year, Trump purchased more than $1 million of Dell stock.

This week, Trump's Pentagon announced a $9.7 billion contract with Dell.
https://t.co/d3epmVJMQl

[nmack @NMackInvest]

welp!

[SentimenTrader @sentimentrader]

Corn is just entering its worst seasonal period of the year.

Long corn from late May through mid-August has lost money 78% of the time since 1981.

A long position held only in this window lost $87,000 cumulatively over 45 years.

The crop is sown.
The risk premium fades.

Read full analysis: https://t.co/pjiPqP4gIK

[Noodles @criptopaul]

The difference between a good investor and a bad one isn’t what they buy.
It’s when.

[nmack @NMackInvest]

@NewsTrustMedia c'est pas possible, ça doit être des acteurs

[nmack @NMackInvest]

'The fireworks are over. The real end game is just beginning.'

[Willem Middelkoop @wmiddelkoop]

My two free (Substack) cents on today’s news: (2000 words)

The real reset isn’t the one in the headlines. It’s the slower, quieter one happening in boardrooms from Riyadh to Beijing: recalculating risk around the Strait, rethinking basing, wondering out loud whether the old energy security bargain still holds. That’s the story that will matter in five years, not the press releases about destroyed centrifuges.
We’re in the pause between rounds. The next few weeks, whether the ceasefire extends, whether a real deal emerges, whether the tankers start flowing freely again, will tell us if America can still convert tactical brilliance into lasting advantage, or whether the 2026 Iran war becomes the moment the empire learned the limits of its reach in a world that has quietly moved on from the old rules

https://t.co/BlWgElAQsG

[nmack @NMackInvest]

More insider trading

[unusual_whales @unusual_whales]

Holy, look at this.

BEFORE THE CEASEFIRE NEWS, there were huge $SPY 678 calls expirying 04/10, opened right at the close, and closed TODAY!

There were also $SPY 668/679 call spreads expiring 4/10 opened yesterday morning, fully closed today.

They made huge gains.

Unusual.

[nmack @NMackInvest]

@ChrisDMacro True story: the nacelle was stolen by the thieves a few days before from a town north of Paris, called Louvres 🤷‍♂️

[nmack @NMackInvest]

Great content. Why it's better to long inverse vol ETPs rather than straight short volatility.

[Volatility Trading @VolatilityVIX]

BEST way to Short Volatility? Short UVXY? | Long SVIX? - Ep.126 https://t.co/KeRrPsKS70

[nmack @NMackInvest]

Total failure of the rule of law, people are too scared to sue this administration

[ian bremmer @ianbremmer]

the corruption is staggering

[jeroen blokland @jsblokland]

Gold is up for a third day, while the selloff in stocks has intensified.

The liquidity explanation (margin calls, forced selling), does it really hold up?

→ Gold's sharpest decline came when equities were only 2.5% lower. No panic.
→ The MOVE index spiked after gold had already fallen. Not before.
→ Hedge fund positioning in gold? Far from extreme.

You can't have a liquidity-driven selloff without actual market stress.

So what really happened? The answer is likely simpler than many think.

👇 Our latest Blokland Smart Multi-Asset Fund newsletter tries to make sense of gold's collapse:
https://t.co/6cDOdSHSSK

Subscribe and read it free.

[nmack @NMackInvest]

@VolatilityVIX @grok 🤣

[Peter Frankopan @peterfrankopan]

Note: The US has reportedly just taken delivery of 10,000 interceptor drones from Ukraine.