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@earlyvotedata @petebray Only in competitive races. Wonder why?

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@MathewKheyfets @TonerousHyus Yes so since Dem had very high primary turnout this year, the numbers for Dems are inflated

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@paulesq711 @oldbull305 @walkeri141 Gallego is one

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@Steve88Truth @itsiforrestgump @RedEaglePatriot We know this because Trump winning Hispanic in Texas exit polls isn’t compatible with the precinct data

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@Steve88Truth @itsiforrestgump @RedEaglePatriot This is wrong. Trump won whites by 40% and lost Hispanic by 5%

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@TonerousHyus @petebray @MKliesen18018 Wait GOP is doing good in competitive states like OH and GA? What about NJ, PA and VA?

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@petebray @MKliesen18018 Do not compare states like PA with permanent mail ballot list

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@bestgtor88 @varadmehta Every poll need to ask this question. It’s perhaps one of the most informative questions to be asked

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@TonerousHyus Don’t Dems know that Trump shitting on VBM would make gop want to vote in person too?

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@HieronymusFisto @TonerousHyus He is misleading you. In 2024, Trump won early voting by 1% while Budd lost early voting by 8% but both won by the same margins. So, Dems did better in ED but why would you bet on your voters voting in ED in a midterm

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@DRvulupa @DjsokeSpeaking This would be misleading. If the environment is 2024, then the crosstab would change too. GOP will consolidate more gop voters and independents voters

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@mrransomx @JasonCorley78 In 2018, Dan Patrick underperformed Abbott by 5% too. Pretty sure 2018 was bad for every gop candidate in the ballot who are well known except for Abbott

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@JimCrumley @AIAHockeyCoach @atwaSDOK @TonerousHyus @JasonCorley78 NYT polls shifted the electorate to the left. Maybe it’s an accurate thing to do. Maybe it’s not. We shall see

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@TonerousHyus @ishaq_shamuel @varadmehta We cant predict how voters will vote but we can predict the turnout of each party through early votes where at least 40% of voters will vote early. These polls assume gop turnout will be low. But if early vote doesn’t show that, the polls will be wrong

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@ishaq_shamuel @TonerousHyus @varadmehta So, if gop is doing as well as 2024 in early poll, the polls are most likely going to be wrong

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@ishaq_shamuel @TonerousHyus @varadmehta The exit poll was inline with the early vote of Dem doing 3% better in terms of turnout but they lose independents by 15% to 20%

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@Foster52RED @varadmehta If you sample is democratic friendly but recall is inline with 2024, it means that they oversampling independents and republicans who voted for Trump but they are now anti Trump

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@EdAsante77 @TonerousHyus @varadmehta If Paxton is down 1 in vote share compared to Abbott, its just a matter of turnout. If Abbott wins by 2% or above, Paxton will win too

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@TCB61454925 @jomch005 @Peachorino The debate here is about recall

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@Mikey5Aces @Zprtr1 This is not a bad poll for Paxton in the sense that he is doing almost the same as Abbott. It’s just a matter of turnout now. If Abbott wins by 3%, Paxton will most likely win too