Kristian

Trying to build intuition from my own curiosity

[Kristian @nocap445]

@matthew_sigel I read it and appreciate you sharing the work. Not trying to dismiss the thesis, I’m interested and looking to build a position. My point was just entry discipline at ~$40–42 vs the normalized 2028/29 EBITDA and margin expansion case.

[Kristian @nocap445]

@matthew_sigel Colossus?

[Kristian @nocap445]

@Agrippa_Inv Agreed!

https://t.co/4WdrC2WTOq

[Kristian @nocap445]

$IREN

A simple modelled breakdown of $IREN’s NVIDIA contract.

Not a valuation thread - just the implied unit economics based on the disclosed contract value, MW footprint and Dell hardware purchase.

The aim is to isolate what the deal appears to imply on a per-MW basis.

[Kristian @nocap445]

That implies:

- ~30% FCF margin on ~$680M ARR
- $3.4M FCF per gross MW per year
- $4.6M FCF per critical IT MW per year

Caveats: GPU count and $/GPU-hour are model-implied; actual financing terms may differ; ramp timing matters; and NVIDIA may not be representative of future customers.

Still, as a disclosed unit economics datapoint, it is a useful marker for what converted air-cooled infrastructure can earn.

$IREN

[Kristian @nocap445]

$IREN

A simple modelled breakdown of $IREN’s NVIDIA contract.

Not a valuation thread - just the implied unit economics based on the disclosed contract value, MW footprint and Dell hardware purchase.

The aim is to isolate what the deal appears to imply on a per-MW basis.

[Kristian @nocap445]

Using modelled assumptions for power, facility opex, rack-level overhead, O&M and SG&A overhead, the contract gets to roughly:

$535M EBITDA before compute capital recovery

After the normalized compute recovery charge, this becomes:

$215M contract cash flow post-compute recovery

After annualized maintenance capex, I get to approximately:

$203M run-rate FCF

[Kristian @nocap445]

@XCapitalMgmt Nicely put, thank you

[Kristian @nocap445]

@LukasFrije1re What about 1yr?

[Kristian @nocap445]

@Agrippa_Inv Keep in mind, that’s over a five year period. Nonetheless, it kind of sets a floor for the stock in the foreseeable future

[Kristian @nocap445]

@HyperTechInvest At €21 you’re already paying ~26x EBIT on a '28 €200m sales/ 10% EBIT case. What’s the upside from here if the meaningful revenue ramp likely only starts next year?

[Kristian @nocap445]

@XCapitalMgmt At what point do they spin out the DC business?

[Kristian @nocap445]

@MarkosAAIG Who are the analysts?

[Kristian @nocap445]

@MarkosAAIG Thank you!

[Kristian @nocap445]

@MarkosAAIG Nice to hear. Do you run any official x-account for AAIG, or are posts shared from analysts accounts, foremost? Maybe you could share some tl;dr from the free Substack-research to broaden reach?

[Kristian @nocap445]

@ShanuMathew93 I use bookmarks for posts I want to come back to and read properly. Likes are more of a quick signal or appreciation. Those bookmarks usually turn into likes a day or two later 🙂

[Kristian @nocap445]

@zephyr_z9 Maybe a basic question, but where would you place $LPK in this? Feels like they sit a bit upstream in the glass/TGV part, is that investable or just too early vs substrate players?