If that theory holds, ultimately two things will prove out:*
1) The SEC will likely rebound and be a playoff force again very soon, and this may look more like the blip 2013-2014 was when the SEC dynasty "died" during what turned out to be a rebuilding phase for Bama.
2) The Big Ten's success will hinge on how much the new NIL rule changes limit the ability to poach top players in the portal.
*Saying this doesn't mean I'm magically willing it to happen as some "homer," this is merely a prediction I will be right-or-wrong about outside my control.
I do believe NIL changes benefitted Big Ten schools.
But here's the thing - it helped them because of the transfer portal. In recruiting rankings, the data actually shows their top-end recruiting hasn't improved at all.
Ohio State's 247 composite recruiting ranking average from 2014-2018 and 2021-2025 were exactly the same (3.8 finish on average both sets).
So the idea that "we win because we can pay players now like the SEC did" is completely unsupported by data.
.@CFBPlayoff Semifinal Records
@SEC 10-1
Big 10 2-6
The Big 10 lost more semifinal games yesterday than the SEC has lost in the entire 9 year history of the CFB Playoff.