Are bear markets getting less severe over time? Percentage-wise, yes, that's been the trend.
86%, 84%, 77%.
Data-wise, no. Unlike cycle tops which show a clear diminishing across nearly all data, cycle bottoms have been very consistent.
Logarithmic MVRV is not at cycle bottom levels. The very accurate and more conservative cycle bottom target of the Realized Market Cap MA, 42.5k, has not been reached.
A move there would be a 66% drop which is still over 10% less than last cycle's bear market.
And again, more aggressive cycle bottom targets like the magic band's low 30k's are not off the table.
Once in one of his addresses Volodymyr Zelenskyy quoted Georgia Meloni, who said the following:
"I don't want disappointed people in Ukraine to burn portraits of European and American leaders."
Well, I think that no one in Ukraine is going to burn portraits. People in Ukraine, though being disillusioned and disfigured by war, have the dignity and clarity to understand who is their true enemy and who wants to wipe them off from the earth.
Disillusioned people in Ukraine won't burn their portraits. Instead they'll simply chew them, swallow them and digest them. Or spit them out.
And their portraits, instead of being place in the pantheon of Ukraine's allies in a worthy place alongside Ukrainian heroes, will be buried in the ground as compost or simply lost in history.
As those who talked too much and did too little.
As those who turned a blind eye and pretended this was not their war.
As those who sought justification in the mere fact that Ukraine is not ideal and everything is not that obvious.
As those who invented that there exists any possibility to stop Putin with appeasement.
There's none. It's a fiction. A whim.
It's simply a non-existant reality which weak people, unable to face the truth, invent for themselves to chicken out and avoid responsibility.
***
Putin doesn't need a pretext. Ukraine didn't attack the parade or launch any strikes during the truce, and Putin himself admitted it.
Did it in any way change his decision to launch 1428 drones and 56 missiles?
He's not doing this in response to anything. He's doing it out of a sick obsession to wipe out an entire people, even though he doesn't even consider them a people.
And then he will either obliterate Ukraine with bombs and missiles. Or, if Ukraine capitulates, he will subject the people to filtration and assimilation, and there will be no Ukrainians – everything will be like in the occupied territories – no language, no passport, no identity. If he is not stopped.
Ukraine is strong. Ukraine is stronger than Putin believed and believes. Ukraine is stronger than the West believed before the invasion in February 2022. Ukraine is stronger than Trump believed in the Oval Office in February 2025. Ukraine is stronger than perhaps even Ukrainians themselves believe.
But it's not just about strength - it's also about the individual tragedy of everyone killed in their sleep by a Russian missile. About the endless grief over the murder of a 12-years-old girl, pulled from under the rubble.
Too much pain to bear alone. And Ukraine bears it all alone, no matter what anyone says. For more then four years now.
This just should not happen - not because of the world order, not because of international law and not because of all those rules humanity invented after World War II to maintain this fragile peace. All of these are good, but in fact secondary constructs, too complex for many. This is not the main thing Ukraine is fighting for.
It's because of a simple principle that no scum should be allowed to kill others on a whim.
This is what Ukraine is really fighting for. This is why it can't just give up Donbas and hope for Putin's mercy. And this is why all these children are dying. Not fucking because of Donbas.
And if Ukraine lays down its arms, it will mean only one thing: killing is allowed. And the next victim could then be anyone.
__
As of now, it is known about 7 people killed, but these are only those who were pulled from the rubble. There may be up to 20 more people still buried there.
🇪🇸 A Spanish left-wing activist was abused and kicked out of her own home by a migrant that she voluntarily hosted.
Estíbaliz Kortazar Errecatxo rented a room to a 48-year-old North African migrant out of humanitarian solidarity through a volunteer association. It is reported that the migrant tenant eventually stopped paying rent, damaged her property, and subjected her to psychological harassment and threats.
He reportedly targeted her with persistent insults, including derogatory and misogynistic language.
Kortazar alleged he watched pornography in her presence, made unwelcome sexual innuendos, and ignored basic hygiene in the shared home. He also intentionally kept the television volume high at night and left lights on constantly to disturb her.
Kortazar was forced to flee her own home out of fear. Reports indicate the man changed the locks and occupied the property.
Then, the migrant allegedly changed the locks, barring her from her own home while she continued to be responsible for paying the utility bills.
Now she ended up in a squatter situation, infamously known in Spain as "okupas."
Bitcoin isn't real! It's not physical!
Yeah? Neither is the number seven, but I bet you'd notice if your bank balance dropped by seven figures.
Let me break the spell for you: money has never been "real."
Money is a collective hallucination—a social construct we all agree to pretend exists so we don't have to barter chickens for dental work.
Gold wasn't money because it fell from heaven with "LEGAL TENDER" stamped on it.
We picked gold because it was the least-bad physical object that checked the boxes:
- Scarce
- Durable
- Divisible
- Portable
- Verifiable
It was the analog solution to our shared idea.
But here's the thing about analog: it's slow, heavy, and requires armed guards.
And here's the thing about humans: we engineer better tools.
We went from abacus to iPhone. From carrier pigeons to satellites.
From gold bars locked in vaults to Bitcoin—verified by thermodynamics, secured by energy, and transmitted at the speed of light.
Bitcoin is the digital versioin of money. Just like X is the digital version of town hall.
Gold was the best we could do for many centuries.
Bitcoin is what we can do now that we have cryptography, distributed consensus, and proof-of-work anchored in physics.
Your grandpa trusted gold because he could hold it.
You trust Bitcoin because you can verify it.
One required faith in a metal. The other requires faith in math.
Guess which one has never been debased, diluted, or confiscated by executive order?
The concept of money is a human mental construct.
Always has been. Always will be.
The only question is: do you want your construct built on scarcity enforced by governments—or scarcity enforced by code?
Gold was monetary technology for the industrial age. Bitcoin is monetary technology for the information age.
Welcome to the upgrade.
I think a lot of people are going to be surprised by just how bad the bear market can get.
There were lots of bottom calls in November last year, and they're starting to spring up again. The further the price declines, the more convincing they will be.
The Chandelier Phases are in the early development of the bear market phase (phase 3). Phase 4 (Bear Market End) marks the cycle bottom with a precise touch of the cycle bottom/retest zone.
The big lessons I've learned from watching bear markets and making great buys are:
1. Don't be too eager to jump in; let the process play out
2. The right time to buy feels like the wrong time
On Wednesday, a secret, unscheduled & “hastily arranged” meeting was held
NY Fed Williams met with 25 Primary Dealer reps who specialize in fixed income, on the growing liquidity crunch in the financial system
Timeline is looking like it’s getting real
https://t.co/BZ4GhLSeI6
Bitcoin still dominates the crypto market, even after Ethereum’s recent inflows.
Today Bitcoin commands 59% of total crypto market cap, a reminder that its role as a hedge against fiat debasement remains the core narrative in digital assets.
I recently stood in a Ukrainian field as the sunflowers began to fade - petals curling, golden faces heavy and bowed.
The first time I saw this, I thought it meant they were dying.
But I’ve learned it means they’re ready - their seeds full, hardened by sun, rain, and wind, prepared for the harvest.
It reminds me of the spirit of Ukraine.
From the outside, some might mistake weariness for weakness. They see bowed heads and think defeat. But that weight is not surrender - it’s the burden of endurance. It’s the proof of many seasons survived in the face of relentless assault.
Like those sunflowers, Ukraine has stood through the storms of Russian aggression - battered, scarred, yet ripening with resolve.
This is what resilience looks like.
Not unmarked, but unbroken.
Ready for what comes next.
bitcoin Price on This Day
March 21
Up forever
2012:🟩
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2020:🟩
2021:🟩
2022:🟥
2023:🟥
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2025:🟩
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