Brad Weir

[Brad Weir @nomasir]

@SantiagoAuFund It's a fair point (and a hopeful one). My concern is that America today looks more like Germany 1930 than America 1976

[Brad Weir @nomasir]

@maphumanintent Thousands of years? Communist Manifesto published in (checks notes) 1848.

[Brad Weir @nomasir]

@adamtaggart I mean - I’m tempted to say “because at least I know I’m free” (hat tip Lee Greenwood). We are an experiment in self governance. We may be struggling under the weight of the elites and corporatists. But the framework of freedom still exists.

[Brad Weir @nomasir]

@TheMichaelEvery I think this is a pretty good take. With the minor quibble of "thinks" - if we define winning the war as achieving political outcomes (Clausewitz) then Iran may be the winner (or the US certainly is not the winner). Iran worse off? yes. US worse off? probably. Political outcomes?

[Brad Weir @nomasir]

@adamtaggart As written this is indicative of a very bad outcome for the US (and a serious loss of credibility around the world). But I suspect there are more shoes to fall. I'm open to the idea we just wanted to get out of there and paid the ransom. But it's almost never that simple.

[Brad Weir @nomasir]

@adamtaggart I gladly accept that we don’t have all the facts. But if the “deal” touted by the US was an option the. We would’ve adopted it months ago.

[Brad Weir @nomasir]

@TomFornelli Just give us the trophy now …

[Brad Weir @nomasir]

@TomFornelli The UNC region should be a little larger, but at least he's got the entire southeast correct ...

[Brad Weir @nomasir]

@JERM3575 @SantiagoAuFund I prefer the Princess Bride - but yes, count of monte cristo was fantastic

[Brad Weir @nomasir]

@SantiagoAuFund The Princess Bride. Best movie ever made. I’ll fight any man who says otherwise

[Brad Weir @nomasir]

@GreyHairOpsGuy $2000 is steep for a transit. You could surely find alternate pipelines for $200 and avoid the hassle of dealing with the new controlling authority. The golf clubs are gone though.

[Brad Weir @nomasir]

@DA_Stockman China has ~1.5B in strategic reserves (428 days at 3.5mdb shortfall). Some concern that their storage is questionable. But they’re hardly running out. (Not to discredit other claims - midterms look ugly for republicans; but maybe not just on gas prices)

[Brad Weir @nomasir]

@adamtaggart It ain't even Sunday ... going to be a long holiday weekend

[Brad Weir @nomasir]

@adamtaggart I think your phrasing is apt - we're all talking about how to "sell" this as a victory (admission that it is clearly not). I'm not suggesting I could've done better, and wars almost never go to plan. But this is going to leave us in a less good position than when it started (IMO)

[Brad Weir @nomasir]

@SantiagoAuFund Agreed. Yet, in this case, I think it's "going through the motions" - ultimately Iran will (or will not) enforce their demands for reparations. They at least want to appear to be doing so based on some external "international" norm rather than sheer might (or lack thereof).

[Brad Weir @nomasir]

@adamtaggart “War is cruelty, and you cannot refine it” -William Tecumseh Sherman. Iran will do all in its power when faced with an existential (as they see it) threat.

[Brad Weir @nomasir]

@adamtaggart @TheMichaelEvery Iran allowing US to safely escort ships is capitulation - they will have openly lost the war. Agree with your take that this gives a "more noble" air to restart hostilities. But we're still in the same place - Iran can escalate along with us below the nuclear threshold.

[Brad Weir @nomasir]

@4SecAwareness @SantiagoAuFund Maybe. I’d say wars “probably” benefit the dominant currency if the dominant currency holder wins but “definitely” hurt the dominance currency holder if they lose. (Britain “won” in WWI but it didn’t help the pound.) but - than “win” part is doing a lot of work here.

[Brad Weir @nomasir]

@adamtaggart That’s a tough one. “Wouldn’t we all be better off?” Yes. But this has been true in every world war. Are we (or they) at a place acceptable to leaders and populace? Iran is simply expressing they can follow us up the escalation ladder. Or lead the way.