Sirazhutdin Tabukov

Investment Manager (HNWIs & FOs), Family Advisor on IBKR platform

[Sirazhutdin Tabukov @nomegor]

@nntaleb The value of any book should be measured by how much it persists into one’s life as a result of coincidence. The book you bought outcompeted the ones in the carry-on as a result of you coinciding with it (being in a state of holding-together-of-the-separate) at the bookstore.

[Hedgie @HedgieMarkets]

🦔Microsoft canceled its internal Claude Code licenses this week after token-based billing made the cost untenable, even for a company with effectively infinite cloud resources. Uber's CTO sent an internal memo warning the company burned through its entire 2026 AI budget in just four months. American AI software prices have jumped 20% to 37%, and GitHub (owned by Microsoft) is dropping flat-rate plans for usage-based billing across its products.

My Take
The AI subsidy era is ending in real time. The same company that put $13 billion into OpenAI and built the Azure infrastructure powering most of Anthropic's compute just looked at the bill from a competitor's coding tool and decided it was not worth paying. That is not a productivity failure on Anthropic's end. Token-based pricing is forcing every enterprise customer to confront the actual cost of running these models at scale, and the number turns out to be far higher than the flat-rate experiments suggested.

This ties directly to my Gemini Flash post yesterday. Anthropic, OpenAI, and Google all raised effective prices in the last six months. Enterprises that built workflows assuming AI costs would keep falling are now watching annual budgets evaporate in months. Two outcomes look likely from here. Either enterprises scale back AI usage to fit budgets, which slows the revenue ramp the labs need to justify their valuations ahead of IPOs, or the labs cut prices and absorb the losses, which makes the unit economics worse at exactly the wrong moment. Both paths land in the same place, the numbers stop working, and somebody has to take the writedown.

Hedgie🤗

[Sirazhutdin Tabukov @nomegor]

@buccocapital @icemancapital One of the paradoxes of life: one has to mentally set himself that he is the master of his fate and act from that perspective, but, at the same time, be able to prescribe much of his success, if it happens, to pure luck and be grateful for that.

[Brett Caughran @FundamentEdge]

A big pivot from Ken Griffin on AI:

“Number one is, in the last few months, there has been a step change in the productivity of the AI toolkit. It is profoundly more powerful than it was just nine months ago.

And for us at Citadel, that has allowed us to unleash a much broader array of use cases for AI. And it has been really interesting to watch, to be blunt, work that we would usually do with people with masters and PhDs in finance over the course of weeks or months being done by AI agents over the course of hours or days.

These are not these are not mid-tier white collar jobs. These are like extraordinarily high skilled jobs being, I'm going to pick a word, automated by agentic AI. And I gotta tell you, I went home one Friday actually fairly depressed by this because you could just see how this was going to have such a dramatic impact on society.

When you witness it in your own four walls, when you see work that used to be man years of work being done in days or weeks, it's like, wow, like that's the first time I've seen real impact in our four walls.”

This echoes my own experience with agents and the conversations I am having with students, friends & clients. The toolkit has dramatically transformed and it feels like in finance, for the first time, AI is real.

[Sirazhutdin Tabukov @nomegor]

@FundamentEdge If it is a single user tool on cloud (Hetzner, Oracle etc) with a standard security protocol- there is no big hurdle in that sense. However, one can hope to extract any kind of durable edge from it only if the tool is built akin to a bespoke armor of a medieval knight.

[Sirazhutdin Tabukov @nomegor]

Turns out all of these years of philosophy digging wasn't a complete waste of time 😅

[Sirazhutdin Tabukov @nomegor]

@NautilusCap Sometimes coincidences can be eerie: I had just saved the same chart (posted near the end of 2024), which I ran into during a random personal retweet history check. I even noticed the date 4/17 - so, double coincidence..)

[Steve Burns @SJosephBurns]

“People always forget that 50% of a stock’s move is the overall market, 30% is the industry group, and then maybe 20% is the extra alpha from stock picking. And stock picking is full of macro bets. When an equity guy is playing airlines, he’s making an embedded macro call on oil.”

— Stanley Druckenmiller

[neyi kaybettiğini hatırla @neyikaybettik]

Yahudi İzleyici: (ağlayarak) Konuşmanız sırasında Yahudilere yönelik birçok kez Nazi benzetmesi yaptınız. Bu son derece incitici. Bu, Nazi rejimi altında gerçekten acı çekmiş olan insanlar için çok aşağılayıcı.

Norman Finkelstein cevap veriyor:

— Bu tavra artık saygı duymuyorum. Gerçekten duymuyorum. Bu timsah gözyaşlarından hoşlanmıyorum ve onlara saygı da duymuyorum. (Dinleyicilerden alkışlar ve yuhalamalar yükselir)

— Yabancı bir dinleyici kitlesi önünde "Holokost kartını" oynamaktan hoşlanmıyorum ama şu an kendimi buna mecbur hissediyorum. Rahmetli babam Auschwitz'deydi. Rahmetli annem Majdanek toplama kampındaydı. Ailemin her iki taraftan da tüm üyeleri katledildi. Annem ve babam Varşova Gettosu Ayaklanması'na katıldılar.

— İşte tam da annem ve babamın bana ve iki kardeşime öğrettikleri dersler nedeniyle, İsrail'in Filistinlilere karşı işlediği suçlar karşısında sessiz kalmayacağım! Onların acılarını ve ölümlerini kullanarak; İsrail'in her gün Filistinlilere karşı işlediği işkence, vahşet ve ev yıkma suçlarını meşru göstermeye çalışmaktan daha aşağılık bir şey düşünemiyorum!

— Bu yüzden artık bu gözyaşlarıyla sindirilmeyi veya baskılanmayı reddediyorum. Eğer zerre vicdanın olsaydı, burada döktüğün o gözyaşlarını Filistinliler için döküyor olurdun!

[Pedro Sánchez @sanchezcastejon]

Justo hoy, Netanyahu lanza su ataque más duro contra el Líbano desde que empezó la ofensiva.

Su desprecio por la vida y el derecho internacional es intolerable.

Toca hablar claro:

- Líbano debe formar parte del alto al fuego.

- La comunidad internacional debe condenar esta nueva violación del derecho internacional.

- La Unión Europea debe suspender su Acuerdo de Asociación con Israel.

- Y no debe haber impunidad ante estos actos criminales.

[Save Gaza @Alee93ale]

This is Israel, world

An Israeli soldier ordered a Palestinian youth to continue walking, then used him as a target for long-range shooting practice before killing him.

Tell us what you think of their actions!

Repost please

[Sirazhutdin Tabukov @nomegor]

@gregoryblotnick I think about it this way: everyone is Leibniz's impenetrable monad. Hence, everyone around me is an actor in my theatre/play, as I am in theirs.

[Sirazhutdin Tabukov @nomegor]

@hfreflection @stockthoughts81 Not being able to identify and concentrate on 20% that bring 80% of your output and constantly drifting into unproductive 80%.

[Sirazhutdin Tabukov @nomegor]

@altryne Yes. And it looks like Anthropic is covering up the shady limit tactics by flooding the users with new features.

[Sirazhutdin Tabukov @nomegor]

@claudeai This incessant feature shipping amid unfair usage limit tactics increasingly looks like distraction, honestly. First fix the critical issue everybody is complaining about.

[Sirazhutdin Tabukov @nomegor]

@AnthropicAI What the hell is going on with CC usage limits? Have you, guys, been hacked or what? THis is absolutely unacceptable if done deliberately!

[Sirazhutdin Tabukov @nomegor]

@gregoryblotnick The paradox is explainable: he wrote for everybody and nobody at the same time.

[Sirazhutdin Tabukov @nomegor]

@FundamentEdge Personally, I am more worried about coding becoming a sort of addiction with bad repercussions: for one, I have never cursed so much as I am doing now - don’t think it is healthy.

[Sirazhutdin Tabukov @nomegor]

@FinFreedom414 B with A's budget😉

[Sirazhutdin Tabukov @nomegor]

@siyul I see this so often: slightly off even in one estimate variable and the whole thesis goes into 🗑️ And sunk-cost fallacy trap becomes nearly inevitable if you had built a considerable position based on the thesis. Nobody is guaranteed from falling into it.