I think we are witnessing the biggest explosion in software creation in history.
New website creation is up 40% year on year. New iOS apps are up nearly 50%. GitHub code pushes in the US jumped 35% and in the UK around 30%.
All of these metrics were flat for years before late 2024. The entire graph looks like a hockey stick.
You no longer need a six month runway and a dev team to ship something real.
We see this in our metrics as well!
People who never wrote a line of code are building and launching apps.
The barrier to building software just disappeared.
What matters now is knowing what to build and the taste to build it right.
the real bottleneck was never the code
@karpathy 's recent notes on the "phase shift" in AI coding captured something real: agents now write most of the code, and there's no going back.
but I keep thinking we're approaching the wrong thing.
the narrative goes like this: software was expensive to build, so only the best ideas got funded and executed.
Now that AI makes code cheap, more ideas can be realized.
But look at what actually kills startups. It's rarely "we couldn't build it." but:
- didn't understand the user problem deeply enough
- built what we thought they wanted, not what they needed
- couldn't find product-market fit before running out of money / patient
- hired the wrong people for this stage
- gave up too early or pivoted too late
None of these are coding problems.
Building a new business line, figuring out a new strategy, designing a business model that actually works, hiring people who fit, securing financing, surviving the brutal and toxic search for pmf.
this is where companies live or die.
Now anyone can ship an MVP over a weekend.
more products competing for the same finite resource: user attention and willingness to pay.
The market doesn't care that your product was agent generated in three days. It cares whether you solved a real customer problem or not.
building was never the bottleneck 😅
everyone can ship an app now.
the new scarcity 1) knowing what’s worth building (UX and business) and build trust (sales)
Excited to launch Pencil
INFINITE DESIGN CANVAS for Claude Code
> Superfast WebGL canvas, fully editable, running parallel design agents
> Runs locally with Claude Code → turn designs into code
> Design files live in your git repo → Open json-based .pen format
cancelled our corporate @OpenAI account today; We were spending ~ $10k a year
@xai is better for real time data
@Gemini is better for travel, local YouTube
& @claudeai is much better for corporate (Cowork and Project features specifically)
ChatGPT isn’t keeping up imo — and I don’t trust them with my corporate data
Long game, but I think ChatGPT is 4th place now
Why product, why not in hardcore sec, infra and architecture problems.
I do agree that one of the most important skills will be deeply understands the real problems of a specific user base (it was already), and at the same time high agency to be able to actually build and deliver it. (high-agency builder.)
The question then: if everyone can build something, who will be able to sell it well (build trust)