norealcappers

breaking my way through life

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@VigPolice @Livedogluke lol

or, maybe, saying you had a “massive edge” in the largest market in the world was absurdly naive / arrogant?

for someone who moonlights full time outing touts you’ve gotta be able to see the irony here

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@JCStern2 @JeffreyBenson12 @LVBookie @DavidPurdum that’s his entire point though — they could’ve just made vig + min bet higher and the lotto ticket player would’ve continued degening without noticing something was off. This throws it in their face.

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@JeffreyBenson12 @LVBookie @JCStern2 @DavidPurdum 100%, and selfishly just happy they didn’t hide it in vig.

Was hoping they’d just increase min bet size but I’ll take it. Also puts increased political pressure on regulators. Seems like the right play.

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@ShipTheJustice @Flupnolide imo they think this will result in a MORE stable estimate of revenue (nfl favs all winning hurt 2024 q4 AGR, etc), obviously not thinking about 2nd order effects like FD eliminating the millions of $0.50 lotto tickets that are pumping up those bet counts

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@AlTruda73 yeah, progressive tax = higher % rate on industry leaders what I meant. Just wanted to make sure I wasn’t misinterpreting the proposal.

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@AlTruda73 seems like it’s actually a very progressive tax, no?

guessing this will result in FD/DK paying >50% of their hold to the state as tax since they dwarf the 20m/yr wager amount

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numbers are estimates based on history, and companies will very likely implement new minimums to counter rate increase (probably don’t wanna pay $.25 on a $.1 wager), so these will likely fall based on whatever reaction occurs. Still think it will result in highest-in-nation tax

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For specifics, $0.25 tax per bet for the first 20m and $0.50/bet after.

Back of the envelope math for FD: 160m wagers in 2025, $75m in extra tax in addition to the already existing tax of ~$4b wagered * 10% hold * 40% existing tax = $170m

Absolutely cooked. Your move NY.

[Rob Pizzola @robpizzola]

Illinois is trying to quietly pass a hidden tax on every sports bet. No input from the people it impacts most. The bettors.

I know a lot of bettors in Illinois. This is unfair and would hurt the experience

Tell lawmakers to shut it down before midnight:
https://t.co/KckkcSOHtH

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@BigBuckHunterrr @astraffon Always seemed like the logical next step to me and I’m a nobody.

Also please do not interfere with my ability to sgp OKC champ + recession

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@VigPolice @KirkEvans0 disclaimers still make it delusional. -10000 the most liquid market in the world has access to *more* sector-specific domain than you and is also better at pricing it than you.

edges easily narrowed / levered if you actually had inside info

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@panthers3698 what a camera angle

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@JoeyKnish22 Thought it was someone accidentally posting tonight’s Moneyline price as the series price but agree with your takes here. These apps are also glitchy enough too that you can’t just have scammers preying off errors when the p2p is another customer.

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@PropSwap @thecat123454 Starting a war against your potential customer base is a choice

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@thecat123454 @PropSwap tbf they are “if not moreso” upset than you.

hope this helps!

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@mr_peanutbettor @garrettgibson_ @JeffreyBenson12 fill 5gal tanks during winter when EPA relaxes gasoline specs, store in garage, sell them to community during summer for more, pray for no sparks in garage

#arblife

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@joeytunes2 @deepvaluebettor @Flupnolide If you need Robinhood accounts to get more down on s&p options lmk

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@justin_budde @ShipTheJustice @EV_Ohio ??

everyone does what ev_Ohio does. there are like 35 other ev_[insert state]s alone doing the exact same thing

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@Flupnolide out of all of the examples in all of the sports on all of the days

you picked this

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@KirkEvans0 people still making millions doing either. scaling remains the tricky part and is just trickier for those steam chasing since they can’t really outsource it.