Bikram Gupta

SEBI-Registered RA - INH000012962 at Northpull Capital | Founder @marginvalue

[MarginValue @marginvalue]

Even as IndusInd Bank grapples with forex derivatives irregularities, potentially reducing its net worth by ~2.35%, the shareholding pattern reveals:

1/ FIIs sold the most in the Dec '24 quarter, bringing their holding to the lowest level since Sep '22.

2/ DIIs bought the most in the Dec '24 quarter, raising their holding to the highest level since Sep '22.

#IndusInd

[MarginValue @marginvalue]

Gensol Engineering - A 101 on high percentage of promoter share pledging

A high percentage of promoter share pledging is a major red flag because it signals financial distress and governance risks. These are the reasons:

1/ Risk of Forced Selling – If the stock price drops, lenders may sell pledged shares, leading to a further price collapse.

2/ Promoters' Stake Dilution – If promoters fail to repay, lenders can sell their shares, reducing promoter ownership and control.

3/ Cash Flow Issues – It suggests the company is struggling to generate enough cash and is relying on pledged shares for funding. Check the CFO.

To make matters worse, corporate governance concerns have surfaced.

A credit rating report flagged that Gensol allegedly falsified debt service records, raising serious liquidity issues.

The stock has cracked 73% of its 52-week high.

#gensolengineering

[MarginValue @marginvalue]

A major adverse event isn’t necessary to trigger a meltdown in asset prices.

It can unfold suddenly, catching the unsuspecting off guard.

The current downturn is a perfect example.

#stockmarketcrash

[Bikram Gupta @northpullcap]

Whose market return does this show? Surely, it is not that of the larger public.

[MarginValue @marginvalue]

Was Google an early investor in #Nykaa?

[Bikram Gupta @northpullcap]

Being a contrarian is not easy; nor is making money in the markets.

[MarginValue @marginvalue]

You will find peace of mind in the markets when you go against the crowd: in buying, in selling, and in holding, helping you protect your capital and generate attractive returns on your portfolio.

When you run with the crowd, expecting peace and security in numbers, you may get trampled by the same crowd from which you are seeking security.

#stockmarketcrash #nifty

[MarginValue @marginvalue]

The valuation comfort is still not there. The wait will still be longer.

#stockmarketcrash

[MarginValue @marginvalue]

On Feb '25, more than 1,000 stocks hit their 52-week lows, a record that we may have only seen on very few days, when COVID-19 just about broke out.

Now, can we expect a quick recovery? While it is often futile to speculate on the direction of the market, it is helpful to know where we are in the cycle.

#stockmarketcrash #smallcap #midcap

[MarginValue @marginvalue]

Voltamp Transformers

Mean reversion ...

#stockmarketcrash #VOLTAMP

[MarginValue @marginvalue]

Yesterday, more than 900 #stocks hit their 52-week lows.
Lest we forget, there have been months and months that stocks have been hitting 52-week highs, just like that.
But now it is certainly not "just like that"; it is because of mean reversion.

#stockmarketcrash

[MarginValue @marginvalue]

The war cry should still be feeble.

#stockmarketcrash

[MarginValue @marginvalue]

The market cap fell from 1000 cr to 500 cr. It now trades at ~3x book.

[MarginValue @marginvalue]

The wait may still be longer. There is still a lot of fluff.

[MarginValue @marginvalue]

These were early indicators.

[Bikram Gupta @northpullcap]

The valuations are still expensive and unprecedented.

By the way, a stock can crack 50% and then again can fall 50% from that level and then again crack ...

#stockmarketcrash

[Bikram Gupta @northpullcap]

The valuations are still expensive and unprecedented.

By the way, a stock can crack 50% and then again can fall 50% from that level and then again crack ...

#stockmarketcrash

[MarginValue @marginvalue]

This is a new record that we may not have seen during the COVID-19 scare: More than 1,000 stocks hit 52-week highs yesterday.

But we need a balanced view: For the last several years, stocks have been hitting 52-week highs in the 100s, 200s, 300s, 400s, and 500s.

#stockmarketcrash

[Bikram Gupta @northpullcap]

For the last several months, the crowd wanted to buy small cap, mid cap, or any cap at any price, but now the crowd wants to sell small cap, mid cap, or any cap at any price.

The theme now is "Sell now and think later".

#StockMarket #Sensex

[Bikram Gupta @northpullcap]

True it is. But to be forewarned is to be forearmed. Now suddenly, 6% will look better than -70%.

#stockmarketcrash

[Bikram Gupta @northpullcap]

True it is. But to be forewarned is to be forearmed. Now suddenly, 6% will look better than -70%.

#stockmarketcrash

[MarginValue @marginvalue]

Being early is also akin to being wrong.

#stockmarketcrash

[MarginValue @marginvalue]

Being early is also akin to being wrong.

#stockmarketcrash

[Bikram Gupta @northpullcap]

~ 2,000 stocks are still trading higher than their historical P/B or P/S or both.

[MarginValue @marginvalue]

Yesterday, more than 800 stocks hit 52-week lows— a record that we may have witnessed around 5 years ago when the COVID-19 scare broke out, cracking the markets.

Even as we have seen some corrections, the valuations in several stocks are still expensive relative to historical norms.

#stockmarketcrash #Nifty