NotPowell

Making bots lose money on polymarket so you don’t have to.

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

What is happening here?

The US birthrate is now down -30% since pre-2008 levels while financial wealth is at record highs.

Why? Because only asset owners are able to afford this economy.

As shown in our below analysis, this crisis accelerated in both 2008 and 2020.

And, with every recession and every round of inflationary economic stimulus, the crisis simply accelerates even further.

Now, we are seeing the biggest divergence between the S&P 500 and the US birth rate in history.

The result? Tons of young Americans simply cannot afford to have kids in another sign of the "K-Shaped" economy.

The US is facing a massive demographic crisis.

[NotPowell @notpowell64]

Hey appreciate you reaching out. If you’re just starting out grab the free starter kit on my Whop, it has 2,807 trades of real data and an audit dashboard so you can see what a working signal looks like. Best way to know if you’re building right is compare your bot’s output against real data. If you get stuck on execution stuff DM me happy to help.

[NotPowell @notpowell64]

Sharing real execution data, timing logs, and actual bugs that cost me money. No fake PnL screenshots, no paid discord, just raw data. But sure lets keep retweeting the guy who turned $50 into $10k with ChatGPT.

[NotPowell @notpowell64]

https://t.co/48yFgQSYhX

[NotPowell @notpowell64]

@kirillk_web3 Exactly, the delay kills it. Thats why I built my own signal engine instead of copying. The execution layer is where the real edge is, not the signal.

[NotPowell @notpowell64]

https://t.co/48yFgQSYhX

[NotPowell @notpowell64]

@AlterEgo_eth Most beginners never think about execution and infrastructure.

[NotPowell @notpowell64]

Full breakdown here https://t.co/shNLjBSrXR

[NotPowell @notpowell64]

https://t.co/TVL1ICqLXo

[NotPowell @notpowell64]

I spent 30 days building a Polymarket scalping bot.
8,100 lines of Python. 7 versions. 2,807 trades.
68% win rate. $100 → $670.
5 execution bugs that only exist in production almost killed it. Not the signal. Not the strategy. The infrastructure.
Writing the full breakdown soon.

[NotPowell @notpowell64]

https://t.co/TVL1ICqLXo

[NotPowell @notpowell64]

Built something similar but for 5-min BTC markets. the spread engine is where the real edge is. most people focus on direction, the money is in the execution layer.

[Kirill @kirillk_web3]

Claude Bot on Polymarket — Full Guide

The same setup turned $1,000 into $1.5M.

2 hours.
Nothing complicated.

Bookmark this so you don’t lose it.

[NotPowell @notpowell64]

@SolSt1ne built something similar but for 5-min BTC markets. the spread engine is where the real edge is. most people focus on direction, the money is in the execution layer

[NotPowell @notpowell64]

@Bambardini exactly. 7 versions to learn that lesson

[NotPowell @notpowell64]

Built something similar for Polymarket 5-min BTC markets. 2,807 trades, 68% win rate. The RBI system is real, I skipped straight to implementation on my first 3 versions and lost money before I learned to backtest properly. The part most people miss is that backtested slippage and live slippage are completely different animals. My paper bot assumed 0.5c slippage. Live was 13c. Same signal, opposite result.

[NotPowell @notpowell64]

@polydao seems like you can do anything nowadays

[NotPowell @notpowell64]

@0x_spicyvibe @TradePolyBot its all flowers and roses in paper until you hit real books

[NotPowell @notpowell64]

@slash1sol this is pretty textbook LARP energy

[NotPowell @notpowell64]

@xmayeth larp

[NotPowell @notpowell64]

@Lummox_eth Until you hit the execution problem

[NotPowell @notpowell64]

@kanyewest sure about that