John Lawrence

Username is a reminder of what I'm doing when I log in to this site. It's also what you're doing right now.

[John Lawrence @notworking2hard]

Important life lesson 👇

(3:45) "Folks who throw dirt on you aren't always trying to hurt you. And folks who pull you out of a jam aren't always trying to help you.

But the main point is: when you're up to your nose in shit keep your mouth shut."

https://t.co/XlX0706HxO

[John Lawrence @notworking2hard]

@BrettErickson28 Trump's usual strategy is to change the conversation.

I think we'd be more likely to bomb somebody else.

[The Long View @HayekAndKeynes]

Sell America they said 😂😂😂

[Echoes of War @EchoesofWarYT]

FDR is the most overrated president in American history and it is not close.

People treat him like a saint. The reality is he inherited a recession and turned it into the longest depression in the history of the developed world. Every other major economy on earth recovered faster than the United States did under FDR. Sit with that. We had the most resources, the most industry, the most capacity, and we recovered slower than countries that got bombed.

Unemployment was still 19% in 1938. Six years into the New Deal. Six years of "bold experimentation" and one in five Americans still could not find work.

Why? Because his policies were economically illiterate. The NIRA cartelized entire industries and made it illegal to lower prices during a deflationary collapse. He paid farmers to slaughter livestock and plow under crops while people stood in bread lines. He launched a war on business so aggressive that investment dried up because nobody knew what insane rule was coming next. Even his own Treasury Secretary, Henry Morgenthau, admitted in 1939 that they had spent enormous sums and "it does not work" and that unemployment was as high as when they started.

Then in 1937 his policies triggered a second brutal crash so embarrassing the textbooks gave it its own polite little nickname, the "Roosevelt Recession," so they would not have to attach his name to the failure in the obvious way.

A UCLA study in 2004 concluded the New Deal prolonged the Great Depression by roughly seven years. Seven years of extra suffering sold to you as heroism.

So what actually saved the economy? Not the alphabet agencies. Not the fireside chats. A world war. Twelve million men shipped overseas and the entire planet's industrial competition reduced to rubble. That is the "recovery." That is the legacy.

Strip away Pearl Harbor and FDR is a guy who took a bad recession and stretched it into a decade of misery with bad economics and a cult of personality. He is not ranked on results. He is ranked on the luck of being in the chair when Hitler invaded Poland.

Greatest marketing job in the history of the presidency. Nothing more.

[John Lawrence @notworking2hard]

@EsotericCD To be honest, we could strap both administrations to a polygraph 24/7 and it would still be impossible to know what's going on.

They can't even agree on whether they're in a room together.

[Esfandyar Batmanghelidj @yarbatman]

Here are some things to keep in mind about the economic benefits offered Iran as part of the MOU, including the new General License X permitting Iranian oil exports:

1. GL-X permits Iran to be paid for its oil and petrochemical products in dollars. This accommodation serves two functions. First, it allows the Treasury Department to begin to remedy one of the key consequences of the overuse of sanctions, which has been to decrease the dollar's share of global oil trade. By permitting Iran to sell oil in dollars, Treasury is sending a signal about its intentions to manage the risks of dedollarization. Importantly, the move also gives Treasury better oversight over the movement of Iranian oil revenues as banks that might support these dollar-denominated trades, likely processed via SWIFT, will be more visible to FINCEN. Second, the move solves a major issue for Iran, which should be able to market oil to smaller customers, such as Japan, South Korea, and India, while being paid in dollars. This is important because a key challenge Iran has faced with previous oil waivers is that accrued revenues in smaller currencies like won or rupees are only useful for bilateral trade and cannot supply Iran's broader FX needs. At this stage, there is no Iranian access to a dollar u-turn, so Iran's central bank cannot convert liquidity in one currency into another. For example, if it has yen reserves it cannot use that hard currency to buy goods in euros. Allowing Iran to earn and spend dollars is a critical step to normalize Iran's balance of payments and help stabilize the FX markets.

2. GL-X permits Iran to export oil to the United States partly for political reasons—Trump wants to show economic relief for Iran will benefit the U.S. economy—but the extension of the license to U.S. persons is mainly about addressing the most common form of overcompliance with such licenses. Many multinational companies are considered to be "U.S. persons" owing to significant U.S. ownership or the presence of American nationals in executive positions. GL-X has been written with these companies in mind, allowing them to avail themselves of the license without having to come up with new structures within the short 60-day window.

3. President Vance has stated (as first reported by the FT report) that the first tranche of Iran's assets to be unfrozen, which sit in Qatar, will be used to purchase American soft commodities like food. Some have interpreted this to contradict the language of the MOU, which states that the funds can be applied "for any final beneficiary payment determined by the Central Bank of the Islamic Republic of Iran and will be fully available for use." Vance's statement does not necessarily contradict the MOU. Iran is also seeking to use economic relief as a means of building confidence with the Trump administration. The idea that Iran would purchase agricultural commodities from the U.S. was considered Iranian negotiators at the urging of regional mediators both last May and in February before the war and was seriously considered. It is important to remember that Iran has consistently purchased American wheat and soybeans when market conditions allow, even during periods of intensifying sanctions. This happened under Obama in 2012 and more importantly under Trump in 2018. It would be especially sensible now as part of implementation of the MOU. By purchasing American commodities, Iran can signal intentions to reset the relationship with the U.S. but also troubleshoot the implementation of sanctions relief. No one has better lawyers or access to Treasury than the big American commodities traders. If you want some test transactions done in the next 60 days, this is the way to do it.

4. The economic relief being offered is substantial enough to build trust, but minimal enough to keep Iran incentivized for a bigger deal. A back-of-the-envelope calculation suggests, Iran might get access to an additional $30 billion in FX liquidity in the next two months if GL-X gets good uptake and the Trump administration is effective at unfreezing assets. That only sounds like a lot because people tend not to understand how big an economy Iran has. $30 billion is less than 6-months of Iran's normal import bill. In current international dollars, Iran's annual economic output is $475 billion. The country's economy is expected to experience a 10% contraction this year due to the impact of the war, which means a $47.5 billion hole in economic activity. The estimated cost to rebuild infrastructure and buildings damaged by the war, the majority of which were civilian in nature, is $300 billion. What happens in the next 60 days will not change the fortunes of Iran's economy. But Iran's leaders know that. They are pursuing a deal because they believe there is a potential for long-term transformation. The technical steps being taken now, like GL-X, are a way to "cross the river by touching the stones," to use the Chinese saying.

[John Lawrence @notworking2hard]

@AliceFromQueens Would be even more true with drones. There are Russian snuff films all over the web.

Iran has/had other counters (destroying oil facilities, desalination plants, underground cables), but I agree that even the potential loss of life was probably enough.

[Gregg Carlstrom @glcarlstrom]

"A crucial point at issue during Ghalibaf’s visit to Qatar was the release of $24bn, a quarter of the Iranian funds frozen abroad, said officials from Iran and mediating countries. Iran is nearing a compromise to get half of that money released at an early stage, they said."

We'll see what that means in practice: obviously there's a difference between being allowed to tap those funds for trade vs. getting a planeload of cash

Either way, though, sounds (unsurprisingly) as if Iran's demands for up-front sanctions relief are significantly greater than what it was asking for during the pre-war round of talks https://t.co/GPRgLSTV2I

[John Lawrence @notworking2hard]

@BridgetPhetasy @priest_099 Mexican weather reports

[John Lawrence @notworking2hard]

@JamesSurowiecki @politicalmath NAL, but if one presented the legal definition of murder, I'd guess they'd convince most that it isn't murder legally since people have been taught by society it isn't a human.

In that sense, you're right. But I think it's mostly an expression to contest that last sentence

[John Lawrence @notworking2hard]

@AstorAaron Healthcare costs are a bigger deal than people think. A lot of people work for small businesses, and a lot of small businesses don't offer insurance or barely offer it.

Many R's decided not to talk about it anymore per insiders, but that won't stop premium notices on Nov 1.

[John Lawrence @notworking2hard]

@glcarlstrom There's no way to know, but I've known a few people who had verbal aphasia following accidents. That could be what's going on.

Basically, their ability to understand language was unchanged, but they couldn't recall words well enough to speak fluently.

[Karim Sadjadpour @ksadjadpour]

Why some Revolutionary Guard leaders in Tehran prefer continued conflict to peace: “They’re not sure they can survive another round of protests,” says a manufacturer. War, by contrast, would keep people indoors—and could rally some behind the regime." https://t.co/5IV7URNtuG

[John Lawrence @notworking2hard]

@beyondreasdoubt @jarvis_best @Hmitchell @JeffreyToobin @ericswalwell @SecretService @Network_Guy8 @Hpgabagool @PerryALPHA @GenXWolf @InfiniteOrb @tuquoque3 I think that's a before and after.

Or maybe a during and after.

[M @M_oass]

$GME

[John Lawrence @notworking2hard]

@jarvis_best You're a wedding and an election away from having your own militia.

https://t.co/mmLLnsOh7i

What could go wrong?

[John Lawrence @notworking2hard]

@tuquoque3 @jarvis_best @NancyMace @ElizabethHolmes He can't harass them. They'd kick his ass.

[John Lawrence @notworking2hard]

@SwannMarcus89 Nah.

Rising healthcare costs will create too many one-issue voters.

The timing of open enrollment doesn't help either.

[John Lawrence @notworking2hard]

@gonzalaga @LynAldenContact @scottlincicome I'd pay a lot for a flying robot owl that could patrol my roof. (Those statue owls don't cut it).

Would've prevented a lot of critter related issues over the years.

[PJ Media @PJMedia_com]

Kings, Kimmel, and Comey: Three Unforced Errors — One by the Dems, Two by the GOP
https://t.co/xpMFKKUyF0

[Massimo @Rainmaker1973]

Possibly the greatest single male athletic performance of all time