@stephen_yo@NFTfi NFTfi and the market you helped pioneer was the foundation I built the last 5 years of my career on.
Amazing work. Good luck on whatever's next 🙏
A simple theory: people didn't move towards experiences over luxury status goods because they got more enlightened; the shift happened because of Instagram, which turned ephemeral experiences into durable status signals
Who Wins and Who Loses In Prediction Markets?
I read a research article about who actually makes money on Polymarket.
Dataset: 1.4M users, 70M trades, $20B volume.
Here are the main points:
> Top 1% of users capture 84% of all gains
> 70.8% of users lose money
> Market makers beat takers at 80 out of 99 price levels
> Buying contracts below 10¢ is the #1 way to lose money (they are systematically overpriced)
> Overtrading makes losses even worse
New: Kalshi wins against New Jersey in Third Circuit court of appeals in the biggest decision to date on the legality of prediction markets and whether federal law preempts state gaming law.
@Clark10x 99% of these people who post about Polymarket bots are lying. If you have a profitable strategy and an edge, you keep it in secret because the edge will disappear once it's known to the public.
This tweet is a Rorschach test.
At first I read it as:
“If you’ve been around long enough to recognize this, you’re ahead of the curve enough to retire yourself in the next few years”
Then I read it as:
“If you’ve been using this (code editor) get ready to be made obsolete”
@blockchainbrett weather market arbitrage
Even with a strategy in mind, Opus (via cursor) still needed much coaxing to get it to do what I wanted
For example: it struggled to calculate fees when the fee schedule is easily accessible and math is rudimentary