This means a Q4 $BTC bottom is even more likely now that BTC didn't have a strong drop immediately (as it stands currently).
Thus, we likely get a bounce for a 1-3 months and then a drop to a new low in Q4.
Just translating this for anyone who isn't tracking.
Q4 has high odds of being the cycle bottom, with a lower low.
I agree with this assessment.
Iβm starting to feel really bullish on Render coin. It can still go a little lower this bear season but Iβm definitely going to start DCA buying soon! solana:rndrizKT3MK1iimdxRdWabcF7Zg7AR5T4nud4EkHBof #Bitcoin#CryptoMarket#AI
$BTC squiggles
Here's a rough visualization of how I see the most likely scenarios playing out. If you average them, you'll get a feel for the broad concept I have. I can absolutely be wrong, but it's my take on things currently.
Note that I give the diagonal (dotted) trend lines some importance in controlling the price movements as well as the horizontal support levels.
This falls in alignment with my other post on the odds I give these Bitcoin scenarios (see below).
My alts are STILL sidelined. I've been holding and DCAing Bitcoin, but moved all my Alts to USDC a few months ago and still waiting and waiting for confirmation of either a bull run breakout or continuation of the bear market. π«₯ #Bitcoin#Altcoins#cryptobearmarket#sidelined $MOG $SOL $RNDR
BTC fell into the TBO cloud over the weekend, confirming bearish consolidation after Friday's second TBT bearish divergence. The next real support area is around $75K, with the bottom of the cloud near $75,644. Losing the $79K pivot low matters because it breaks the sequence of higher pivot lows that held the move together since March. A short-term bounce is possible after multiple red days, but the bigger read is still lower highs, weaker RSI, and OBV crossing below its moving average.
ETH still looks worse than BTC. It failed to reclaim TBO resistance, dropped back into strong bearish mode, lost another support fan level, and ETH dominance continues to break down. ETHBTC also remains weak after the TBO breakdown and prior TBT bearish divergence cluster. Stablecoin dominance is the chart that matters most right now: it closed above the key reversal line, and a weekly RSI support pierce is the same kind of warning signal we saw near major tops and mid-cycle dumps.
Across the broader market, TOTALES lost support after confirming another TBT bearish divergence, while TOTALE100 and OTHERS show OBV rolling over. That means alt strength is selective and fragile, even if a few dips get bought. DXY is pushing toward the 99.516 gap target, USDJPY is back in a worry zone near 160, S&P futures printed a take-profit signal on the 4H, and VIX is inside the cloud. Gold, silver, copper, platinum, uranium, and BTC against gold all point to a market where protecting capital matters more than forcing longs.
The watchlist is mixed, but most charts need caution. DEXE and VVV still have constructive bounce setups, while DOGE, BCH, TAO, DOT, SKY, ATOM, ARB, VET, ZRO, PENGU, DCR, INJ, QNT, ALGO, MORPHO, JUP, ZBCN, BNB, HYPE, ZEC, NEAR, RENDER, MON, and several requested charts are showing breakdowns, resistance tests, or better short entries on bounces. Getting stopped out is fine. Getting liquidated is not. Stay disciplined, reduce risk, and stay awesome and stay in the green.
00:00 BTC falls into the TBO cloud
07:46 ETH weakness and bear flag risk
13:00 CME gaps and ETHBTC breakdown
15:32 Stablecoin dominance reversal signal
18:09 BTC dominance, TOTALES, and alt breadth
22:05 DXY, USDJPY, S&P futures, and VIX
27:09 Gold, silver, copper, platinum, and uranium
29:42 BTC vs gold and risk management
32:14 My chart watchlist
43:48 Requested charts and final thoughts