🚨NEWS:Texas Instruments has purchased UBTECH's industrial humanoid robot Walker S2 and is currently deploying and testing it on its production lines. UBTECH will also integrate more Texas Instruments components into the core components of its humanoid robots.
Basic:
If you can't bet, you can't win.
If you lose all your chips, you can't bet.
The game is to stay long enough until probabilities turn into your favor. ✌️#Trading#ProTip
🦔How catastrophic is it if the AI bubble bursts? Let me break this down.
OpenAI lost $13.5 billion on $4.3 billion in revenue for H1 2025. ChatGPT loses money almost every time you use it. Yet OpenAI targets a $1 trillion IPO based on storytelling, not business fundamentals. An MIT study found 95% of businesses that deployed AI got no value from it.
The Circular Financing
Nvidia invested $100 billion in OpenAI, which must then spend it on Nvidia products. "If I give your lemonade stand $10 so you can buy my $10 lemons, we can't tell our investors we've boosted the lemonade economy by $20." In H1 2025, data center spending accounted for most US economic growth, outpacing all consumer spending combined. It's the money AI companies are spending, not making, that drives GDP.
The Impact
A sharp contraction would put tens of thousands out of work, vaporize trillions in investment dollars, and torpedo retirement funds. But here's what's interesting: if AI investment stopped tomorrow, the immediate impact on many people's daily lives might be less than expected. Groceries are getting more expensive, utilities are getting more expensive. None of that is offset by AI investment. Since 95% of businesses got no value from deployments, the direct business impact may be limited.
My Take
The AI industry's most important product isn't a chatbot, it's the story it's telling about itself. The scheme is keep the ship floating, inhale capital, and hope the tech justifies valuations or the government bails them out. When 95% of businesses get no value but data center spending drives GDP, that's bubble economics where spending creates growth without returns. This combines with everything I've been documenting: zombie companies at 2022 highs, private credit cracks, repo dysfunction, 950,000 job cuts, and governments at 110% debt with limited bailout capacity. The structure is already cracking across multiple points.
Hedgie🤗