June 23rd #NYstreetpoll Election Night predictions for NYC’s key Democratic primaries:
NY-07: @claireforny +7
When you’ve got @nycDSA HQ, $200K+ in firepower, and 3,000 door-knocking warriors treating every apartment building like a swing state, that’s not a campaign — that’s a ground invasion. Tough road for @ReynosoBrooklyn.
NY-10: @bradlander +20
Landslide territory. @danielsgoldman basically surrendered months ago — Lander is just waiting for the concession speech to catch up with reality.
NY-12: @MicahLasher +2.5
This one is close, but Lasher has the old-school Avengers behind him: West Side power, Bloomberg world, Nadler network, Stringer orbit. @AlexBores will overperform, but the OG machine still has a few tricks left.
NY-13: @EspaillatNY +4.5
The Dominican Godfather has inherited deep Harlem and Bronx power, and this time he keeps the throne. @DarializaforNY has real grassroots energy and a bright future — just maybe not tonight.
Turnout and late deciders will decide the close ones.
What are your predictions?
#NYCPolitics #NYPrimary #NY07 #NY10 #NY12 #NY13 #ElectionNight #DemocraticPrimary
Darializa Chevalier lost the Bronx part of the district by 30 points. She also lost predominantly Black and Hispanic areas, and she lost lower income areas by 10 points. She won with young voters and higher income voters, and won majority college educated areas by 20 points.
Here’s why @DarializaforNY Avila Chevalier is on track to beat Adriano @EspaillatNY in NY-13:
This wasn’t a Bronx collapse — Espaillat actually won the Bronx by +2,278.
The problem? Manhattan buried him.
Darializa won New York County by +4,604, powered by massive margins in AD 70 and AD 71:
AD 70: Darializa +2,178
AD 71: Darializa +2,136
Those two Upper Manhattan districts alone gave her a +4,314 margin — almost the entire reason she leads districtwide by 2,326 votes.
Espaillat’s Dominican/Bronx machine still showed up. But Darializa built a broader Upper Manhattan coalition: Harlem, West Harlem, Washington Heights, younger voters, renters, progressives, and anti-incumbent energy.
In a low-turnout primary, field + fresh energy beats old machine politics.
NY-13 just sent a message: incumbency is not enough anymore.
#NY13 #NYCPolitics #ElectionNight #UpperManhattan #Harlem #WashingtonHeights
Here’s why @DarializaforNY Avila Chevalier is on track to beat Adriano @EspaillatNY in NY-13:
This wasn’t a Bronx collapse — Espaillat actually won the Bronx by +2,278.
The problem? Manhattan buried him.
Darializa won New York County by +4,604, powered by massive margins in AD 70 and AD 71:
AD 70: Darializa +2,178
AD 71: Darializa +2,136
Those two Upper Manhattan districts alone gave her a +4,314 margin — almost the entire reason she leads districtwide by 2,326 votes.
Espaillat’s Dominican/Bronx machine still showed up. But Darializa built a broader Upper Manhattan coalition: Harlem, West Harlem, Washington Heights, younger voters, renters, progressives, and anti-incumbent energy.
In a low-turnout primary, field + fresh energy beats old machine politics.
NY-13 just sent a message: incumbency is not enough anymore.
#NY13 #NYCPolitics #ElectionNight #UpperManhattan #Harlem #WashingtonHeights
NY-12 wasn’t won by vibes. It was won by geography.
@MicahLasher leads @AlexBores by 4,284 votes — and the whole race came down to two Upper West Side power centers:
AD 67: Lasher +3,354
AD 69: Lasher +2,708
That’s +6,062 from just two Assembly Districts.
@AlexBores actually won more parts of the map — AD 68, 73, 74, 75, 76 — but mostly by small margins.
@MicahLasher won where it mattered: the high-turnout UWS / Morningside Heights / Lincoln Center / Columbia political ecosystem.
This was the Nadler-Stringer-Brewer old-school liberal machine showing it still has muscle.
Bores had reform energy. @JBKSchlossberg pulled 11,036 votes. But Lasher had organized vote, neighborhood machine, and trust from UWS regular Democrats.
Lesson of the night:
You can win the map and still lose the race.
#NY12 #NYCPolitics #ElectionNight #UpperWestSide #Manhattan
Here’s why @DarializaforNY Avila Chevalier is on track to beat Adriano @EspaillatNY in NY-13:
This wasn’t a Bronx collapse — Espaillat actually won the Bronx by +2,278.
The problem? Manhattan buried him.
Darializa won New York County by +4,604, powered by massive margins in AD 70 and AD 71:
AD 70: Darializa +2,178
AD 71: Darializa +2,136
Those two Upper Manhattan districts alone gave her a +4,314 margin — almost the entire reason she leads districtwide by 2,326 votes.
Espaillat’s Dominican/Bronx machine still showed up. But Darializa built a broader Upper Manhattan coalition: Harlem, West Harlem, Washington Heights, younger voters, renters, progressives, and anti-incumbent energy.
In a low-turnout primary, field + fresh energy beats old machine politics.
NY-13 just sent a message: incumbency is not enough anymore.
#NY13 #NYCPolitics #ElectionNight #UpperManhattan #Harlem #WashingtonHeights
June 23rd #NYstreetpoll Election Night predictions for NYC’s key Democratic primaries:
NY-07: @claireforny +7
When you’ve got @nycDSA HQ, $200K+ in firepower, and 3,000 door-knocking warriors treating every apartment building like a swing state, that’s not a campaign — that’s a ground invasion. Tough road for @ReynosoBrooklyn.
NY-10: @bradlander +20
Landslide territory. @danielsgoldman basically surrendered months ago — Lander is just waiting for the concession speech to catch up with reality.
NY-12: @MicahLasher +2.5
This one is close, but Lasher has the old-school Avengers behind him: West Side power, Bloomberg world, Nadler network, Stringer orbit. @AlexBores will overperform, but the OG machine still has a few tricks left.
NY-13: @EspaillatNY +4.5
The Dominican Godfather has inherited deep Harlem and Bronx power, and this time he keeps the throne. @DarializaforNY has real grassroots energy and a bright future — just maybe not tonight.
Turnout and late deciders will decide the close ones.
What are your predictions?
#NYCPolitics #NYPrimary #NY07 #NY10 #NY12 #NY13 #ElectionNight #DemocraticPrimary
June 23rd #NYstreetpoll Election Night predictions for NYC’s key Democratic primaries:
NY-07: @claireforny +7
When you’ve got @nycDSA HQ, $200K+ in firepower, and 3,000 door-knocking warriors treating every apartment building like a swing state, that’s not a campaign — that’s a ground invasion. Tough road for @ReynosoBrooklyn.
NY-10: @bradlander +20
Landslide territory. @danielsgoldman basically surrendered months ago — Lander is just waiting for the concession speech to catch up with reality.
NY-12: @MicahLasher +2.5
This one is close, but Lasher has the old-school Avengers behind him: West Side power, Bloomberg world, Nadler network, Stringer orbit. @AlexBores will overperform, but the OG machine still has a few tricks left.
NY-13: @EspaillatNY +4.5
The Dominican Godfather has inherited deep Harlem and Bronx power, and this time he keeps the throne. @DarializaforNY has real grassroots energy and a bright future — just maybe not tonight.
Turnout and late deciders will decide the close ones.
What are your predictions?
#NYCPolitics #NYPrimary #NY07 #NY10 #NY12 #NY13 #ElectionNight #DemocraticPrimary
@ZacharyDonnini The seniors playing very important role in early vote which will be favor to lasher Ny12 and Espaillat Ny13. NY7 will be HQ for @nycDSA
June 23rd #NYstreetpoll Election Night predictions for NYC’s key Democratic primaries:
NY-07: @claireforny +7
When you’ve got @nycDSA HQ, $200K+ in firepower, and 3,000 door-knocking warriors treating every apartment building like a swing state, that’s not a campaign — that’s a ground invasion. Tough road for @ReynosoBrooklyn.
NY-10: @bradlander +20
Landslide territory. @danielsgoldman basically surrendered months ago — Lander is just waiting for the concession speech to catch up with reality.
NY-12: @MicahLasher +2.5
This one is close, but Lasher has the old-school Avengers behind him: West Side power, Bloomberg world, Nadler network, Stringer orbit. @AlexBores will overperform, but the OG machine still has a few tricks left.
NY-13: @EspaillatNY +4.5
The Dominican Godfather has inherited deep Harlem and Bronx power, and this time he keeps the throne. @DarializaforNY has real grassroots energy and a bright future — just maybe not tonight.
Turnout and late deciders will decide the close ones.
What are your predictions?
#NYCPolitics #NYPrimary #NY07 #NY10 #NY12 #NY13 #ElectionNight #DemocraticPrimary
June 23rd #NYstreetpoll Election Night predictions for NYC’s key Democratic primaries:
NY-07: @claireforny +7
When you’ve got @nycDSA HQ, $200K+ in firepower, and 3,000 door-knocking warriors treating every apartment building like a swing state, that’s not a campaign — that’s a ground invasion. Tough road for @ReynosoBrooklyn.
NY-10: @bradlander +20
Landslide territory. @danielsgoldman basically surrendered months ago — Lander is just waiting for the concession speech to catch up with reality.
NY-12: @MicahLasher +2.5
This one is close, but Lasher has the old-school Avengers behind him: West Side power, Bloomberg world, Nadler network, Stringer orbit. @AlexBores will overperform, but the OG machine still has a few tricks left.
NY-13: @EspaillatNY +4.5
The Dominican Godfather has inherited deep Harlem and Bronx power, and this time he keeps the throne. @DarializaforNY has real grassroots energy and a bright future — just maybe not tonight.
Turnout and late deciders will decide the close ones.
What are your predictions?
#NYCPolitics #NYPrimary #NY07 #NY10 #NY12 #NY13 #ElectionNight #DemocraticPrimary
June 23rd #NYstreetpoll Election Night predictions for NYC’s key Democratic primaries:
NY-07: @claireforny +7
When you’ve got @nycDSA HQ, $200K+ in firepower, and 3,000 door-knocking warriors treating every apartment building like a swing state, that’s not a campaign — that’s a ground invasion. Tough road for @ReynosoBrooklyn.
NY-10: @bradlander +20
Landslide territory. @danielsgoldman basically surrendered months ago — Lander is just waiting for the concession speech to catch up with reality.
NY-12: @MicahLasher +2.5
This one is close, but Lasher has the old-school Avengers behind him: West Side power, Bloomberg world, Nadler network, Stringer orbit. @AlexBores will overperform, but the OG machine still has a few tricks left.
NY-13: @EspaillatNY +4.5
The Dominican Godfather has inherited deep Harlem and Bronx power, and this time he keeps the throne. @DarializaforNY has real grassroots energy and a bright future — just maybe not tonight.
Turnout and late deciders will decide the close ones.
What are your predictions?
#NYCPolitics #NYPrimary #NY07 #NY10 #NY12 #NY13 #ElectionNight #DemocraticPrimary