olle wistrand

[olle wistrand @o_llle]

@KhileshGautam6 this hit just right today

[olle wistrand @o_llle]

@1005Alok85200 the energy in this is wild

[Alok Pathak @1005Alok85200]

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[olle wistrand @o_llle]

@kashpriya834 Yo super helpful for navigating the wild crypto world

[Priya Kashyap @kashpriya834]

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[olle wistrand @o_llle]

@Alibaba_Wan the way you tied this together damn

[Wan @Alibaba_Wan]

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[olle wistrand @o_llle]

@higgsfield_ai bookmarking this

[Higgsfield AI 🧩 @higgsfield_ai]

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[olle wistrand @o_llle]

@DailyMarketExch Such a well-thought-out post. Appreciate the effort you put into this

[DAILY MARKET EXCHANGE @DailyMarketExch]

The global AI build-out is running out of InP Lasers

TL;DR: New trade $COHR.

Severe Supply-Demand Imbalance:

Current demand for high-end InP lasers exceeds global supply by roughly 2x. This remains the single largest "non-GPU" hardware bottleneck in the current AI build-out cycle. By 2027, Coherent $COHR will likely be the lowest-cost producer of the 200G EMLs (lasers) required for 1.6T and 3.2T AI transceivers.

The Copper Wall:

Sending electricity (a.k.a. moving data among GPUs) through copper wire at these AI speeds is like trying to push water through a leaky, rusted pipe. At 800G, the pipe is spraying everywhere. At 1.6T, the pipe essentially explodes. Light (Optics) is the only way to move that much data without the signal dying. This makes InP lasers a "mandatory" purchase for every hyperscaler (e.g., Google, Meta, Microsoft).

NVIDIA’s Strategic Stockpile:

$NVDA has used its massive capital to "pre-allocate" the majority of global EML capacity through 2027, effectively locking out smaller AI players and cloud providers, forcing them to scramble for supply. The "Big Three" InP suppliers outside of China ($COHR, Sumitomo, JX) are set to benefit from the supply squeeze.

The Indium Trap:

In November 2025, China suspended export controls on Gallium and Germanium for the U.S. until late 2026. However, Indium remains under the strict February 2025 licensing regime. Indium is the "soil" these lasers are grown in. No Indium = No Wafer Substrate = No Lasers = No 1.6T networking.

The 6-Inch "Efficiency Moat":

Historically, InP has been limited to 3-inch or 4-inch wafers. Coherent ($COHR) successfully reached full High-Volume Manufacturing (HVM) on 6-inch wafers in late 2025—finishing a year ahead of schedule.

Yield "Learning Curves":

While 6-inch InP is notoriously fragile, Coherent reported in late 2025 that its initial 6-inch yields are already higher than its mature 3-inch lines, suggesting they have successfully cleared the manufacturing "Valley of Death."

The "Yield-per-Gram" Advantage:

Because 6-inch wafers provide 4x more chips per wafer, Coherent can produce significantly more chips from a given amount of restricted Indium compared to rivals on 3-inch lines. On a 3-inch wafer, the unusable perimeter is a large percentage of the surface area. On a 6-inch wafer, that "dead zone" is amortized over 4x the area, resulting in significantly more sellable chips from the same batch of refined Indium. In a supply-restricted market, this "material efficiency" is a dominant pricing lever.

The shift toward Co-Packaged Optics (CPO):

TSMC’s COUPE (Compact Universal Photonic Engine) platform is trying to push the industry away from "pluggable" transceivers to CPO, where the optical engine is stacked directly onto the compute die (CPU/GPU/ASIC) using 3D packaging. Advanced architectures like Nvidia’s Spectrum-X utilize centralized External Laser Sources (ELS) that can potentially reduce the absolute laser count per link by up to a factor of four compared to legacy pluggable modules. However, because the specs for CW lasers are so stringent, a smaller percentage of chips on an InP wafer meet the grade for CPO compared to those for standard transceivers. This likely means more InP wafer starts are required to get the same amount of "usable light”, reinforcing the current InP supply squeeze.

The Key Players:

Coherent $COHR, is the "wafer-to-module” player. By owning the entire chain from Texas-grown crystals to the final 1.6T module, they are the only player that can "self-insure" against an Indium supply shock. Their vertical integration allows them to "absorb" the China export control risk in a way that pure-play InP wafer firms like JX cannot. But you have to be comfortable with their ~$3B debt load and recent insider selling (several executives/directors reported sold $25m+ near the stock’s 52-week highs).

JX, they are the top provider of ultra-low-defect wafers and has aggressively invested in non-China critical mineral sources to bypass the licensing bottleneck. That said, if a trade war escalates in 2026, as a substrate supplier JX bears the brunt of the "input" risk without the "output" pricing power that a device-maker like Coherent has.

Similarly, Sumitomo, they are the masters of 4-inch InP wafers, though they are slightly behind in the 6-inch race. In a 12-month trade, they stand to gain from higher InP wafer prices, but longer term may see some margin compression if Coherent’s 6-inch capacity begins to flood the market.

Lumentum $LITE, The "NVIDIA & Cash" Play. They are the tactical partner for NVIDIA’s next-gen switch architecture, giving them a revenue floor that $COHR can’t match. They also boast a fortress balance sheet with over $1B in cash. However, because they are "price takers" (i.e., buying wafers from external sources like JX) and are locked into massive NVIDIA contracts without raw-material price escalators, they are more vulnerable to a "margin sandwich" if Indium costs spike.

Final Word:

Coherent $COHR is one of the few players that can offer a "China-Free" supply chain from wafer to module. This is a massive “Procurement Insurance Premium” that hyperscalers like Microsoft and Google would pay for.

(Not Financial Advice)

[olle wistrand @o_llle]

@Aiden_Tech_Ai keep bringing the heat

[Aiden Tech @Aiden_Tech_Ai]

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[olle wistrand @o_llle]

@alibaba_cloud wow this take solid af

[Alibaba Cloud @alibaba_cloud]

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[olle wistrand @o_llle]

@teslaownersSV been thinking abt this too, wild

[Tesla Owners Silicon Valley @teslaownersSV]

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