observer14

[Mina Al-Lami @Minalami]

🧵My analysis for BBC Monitoring on 9/11 anniversary: https://t.co/MOPhXnNpgo

1/ Twenty-five years after 9/11, has global jihadism failed?

There's a strong case it has, at least as a political project. Neither al-Qaeda nor Islamic State (IS) - nor any other transnational jihadist group - has succeeded in taking control of an entire country. IS came closest, but ultimately lost its territorial “caliphate”.
Yet two Islamist groups have succeeded in taking power: the Taliban in Afghanistan and, more strikingly, HTS in Syria. Neither followed the transnational model championed by al-Qaeda and IS.

[observer14 @observer1442]

@MohamedBinFisal لن أنسى ذالك التسجيل الذي ظهر فيه المحيسني مع شاب مغرر به لم يتجاوز العشرين من عمره، مقبل على تنفيذ عملية "استشهادية". فقال المحيسني ما قال من الهرطقة الضالة المضلة،وبعدها وبدم بارد باشر يعزي أم الشاب في ابنها الواقف أمامه. ان سلم هذا المجرم العقوبات الأمريكية فلن يسلم عقاب الله.

[observer14 @observer1442]

The style has also changed dramatically, the one prior was politically charged and thematically edgy. This current style is sermon-ish and very subdued. Feels like reading a print out of a pre-approved government Friday prayer sermon.

[Mina Al-Lami @Minalami]

The editorial team behind IS’s al-Naba weekly really seems to be struggling for themes lately. The past five editorials, including today’s, have largely been dull, sermon-style pieces on morals, patience, perseverance, worship and other familiar religious themes.

Some carried underlying messages suggesting IS may be worried about morale, trying to rationalise setbacks or spur followers into action. But they’ve been wrapped in highly familiar religious rhetoric.

Today’s advice: focus more on prayer and worship than worldly distractions. As my Pakistani colleague put it: “My grandma could’ve given that advice for free. No editorial needed!”

[Mina Al-Lami @Minalami]

The editorial team behind IS’s al-Naba weekly really seems to be struggling for themes lately. The past five editorials, including today’s, have largely been dull, sermon-style pieces on morals, patience, perseverance, worship and other familiar religious themes.

Some carried underlying messages suggesting IS may be worried about morale, trying to rationalise setbacks or spur followers into action. But they’ve been wrapped in highly familiar religious rhetoric.

Today’s advice: focus more on prayer and worship than worldly distractions. As my Pakistani colleague put it: “My grandma could’ve given that advice for free. No editorial needed!”

[observer14 @observer1442]

@HumAngle_ What about Abu Musa al-Mangawi?
There have been conflicting reports about his demise, although no one has been able to provide post-mortem evidence of his killing like in the case of Abu Mus’ab al-Barnawi. Don’t you think ,if alive, he could be the next leader to take over?

[observer14 @observer1442]

@abdulhamid2244 @WaelEssam77 والله انتم مهزلة،
طيب ليش سويتو "ولاية العراق و"ولاية سورية" إذا الحدود غير موجودة؟!

[observer14 @observer1442]

@USAfricaCommand Let’s go!! Better late than never, these strikes should have been done years ago.
Thousands of lives good have been saved!!
The Nigerian military is a great ally stay the course, build partnerships in Mali and Niger too.

[observer14 @observer1442]

@SimNasr @France24_en @milnewsng @PL_CTOperations @ZagazOlaMakama @Osint613 @Osman_estate @Minalami @ayoubaaayoubaa2 @Sazedek @cozyduke_apt29 @colebunzel @caleb_weiss7

[observer14 @observer1442]

🧵 Many analysts and terrorism experts are doubting that the Abu Bilal Al-Minuki was N.2 in ISIS. The majority don’t even offer any analytical reasoning for their skepticism.
I’m here to open a dialogue about this event and argue that Al-Minuki was most likely N.2

[observer14 @observer1442]

Abu Bilal Al-Minuki was most likely N2 in ISIS. There is very little doubt in my mind, and so far no one has presented a convincing case for another leader.
This proves that ISIS , after the death of Abu Khadijah, was entirely managed from Africa.. its uncontested epicenter.

[observer14 @observer1442]

🧵 Many analysts and terrorism experts are doubting that the Abu Bilal Al-Minuki was N.2 in ISIS. The majority don’t even offer any analytical reasoning for their skepticism.
I’m here to open a dialogue about this event and argue that Al-Minuki was most likely N.2

[observer14 @observer1442]

Now, if you put all of these things together+the grim assessment of ISIS in Iraq and Syria, and the no doubt presence of the ISIS overall leader in Somalia, plus the millions of $ that the ISWAP and Sahel are bringing in from extortion and kidnapping, the picture becomes clear..

[observer14 @observer1442]

@BrantPhilip_ IS made deals with FSA, SDF, Hezbollah, Naqshabaniyah (in Iraq), Nusra Front in (Qalamoun Mountains), FLA (for a brief period). Boko Haram (for two months). This article is comical. Trurh is, If there is a good political deal to be made, IS will justify it.

[Mina Al-Lami @Minalami]

For at least a year now, JNIM has been somewhat distancing itself from al-Qaeda's global jihadist agenda & rhetoric. They've stopped issuing joint statements with parent group AQIM (Al-Qaeda in North Africa), and their messaging has been focused on local Sahelian issues and grievances rather than broader Muslim concerns. This change seems aimed at appealing to local communities and placating external actors (by suggesting that JNIM has no ambitions beyond Sahel).

This doesn’t necessarily indicate a division or falling out with al-Qaeda; rather, it may reflect a mutual tactical adjustment aimed at maximising gains.

Since events/ regime changes in Afghanistan in 2021 and Syria in 2024, radical Islamist groups have been looking to capitalise on similar opportunities

[observer14 @observer1442]

@sarahadams Abu Muhammad al-Masri and his daughter were killed by Israeli agents in Tehran in Aug 2021. It was confirmed by both the Trump and the Biden administrations, FBI, UN monitoring team, NYT, and AL-Qaeda (indirectly), and a host of intel agencies.

JUST STOP THE DISINFORMATION

[observer14 @observer1442]

@Shobshbnnq اسمه الحقيقي "مصطفى ظافر"
هذا من إصدار "الخبر اليقين بثبات المجاهدين" حين جزم ان الله "وعد التنظيم بالنصر" في معركة تكريت. غير ان الله شاء ان يقتل ابو الحسن بعد اقل من أسبوع من نشر هذا التسجيل وهزم التنظيم في تكريت.
من اكبر المحرمات
﴿وَأَن تَقولوا عَلَى اللَّهِ ما لا تَعلَمونَ﴾