Occam's Retard

"Retarditas certa est."

[Occam's Retard @ObsvRetardation]

$HIMS you're so fucked. I went on
$AMZN today and I got a bottle of 90 dick pills (tadalafil 5mg) for $23 (including the prescription itself, which was free and asynchronous). So basically 25 cents a pill. I didn't even have to buy a membership, I just got the free one medical trial. But if I wanted to keep the membership it would be less than $10 a month.

If you want to talk about narrative following price, when a share of
$HIMS costs less than the amortized monthly cost of dick pills from amazon, I'm sure there will be a great narrative like they got sued into oblivion or something. But it will actually just because they don't have a real business model and their whole narrative depended on selling overpriced dick pills and charging $150/mo for an electronic permission slip to buy someone else's innovation, and calling themselves disruptors for it 😂

[Occam's Retard @ObsvRetardation]

I think this ubt data out today just makes it even more clear,
$NVO's new strategy is to develop "me-worse" drugs. Cagrisema is a me-worse alternative to tzp, zenagamtide a me-worse of cagrisema, ubt251 a me-worse of retatrutide. My back of the envelope math, it seems like it would reach the market in 2032 most likely. And from the data today it looks like the side effect burden is worse at least in terms of the neurological and musculoskeletal symptoms (skin sensations, and muscle aches that don't even appear in reta AE tables). And then they can develop this amylin+glp+gip triple agonist that will be a me-worse version of
$LLY elora-zepatide combo.

@DaveARicks clearly a very competent CEO and I think the whole Lily management team is smart and capable, but they are also lucky that the main company that is "supposed to be" their competitor is so stupid and clueless 😂 I mean you guys basically don't have any credible competition. But hey maybe you should buy $VKTX to make sure it stays that way!

[Occam's Retard @ObsvRetardation]

The underlying problem for $NVO is they have no theory of strategic victory. Basically they don't know who they are trying to serve or what success looks like. Based on the CEOs communications, the person they're trying to serve is "whoever doesn't want the superior product", which is not a real strategy when you're a 200 billion dollar company.
That's what leads to wasting time on high-risk pursuits with unclear payoffs, doubling down on assets that are clearly dead ends, and talking about nonsense like pivoting to "longevity" and aesthetics, when their entire philosophy was being specialists in obesity and diabetes (their tagline is literally "Novo Nordisk – a focused healthcare company").
I think it's because the Novo Nordisk foundation must be completely out of touch and they are the ones calling the shots. And it's clear why they chose Doustdar, an operations guy, as the new ceo, because he has zero strategic vision just like them.

[Occam's Retard @ObsvRetardation]

*fill

[Occam's Retard @ObsvRetardation]

$LLY I have limit order for bull call spread idk if it will fill.

[Occam's Retard @ObsvRetardation]

Didn't feel, I've canceled this order

[Occam's Retard @ObsvRetardation]

Well, it is weird if you are trying to use it as a sign of market preference because obviously if the competitor is not launched in that country yet, then it doesn't reflect a choice it just reflects that they have no alternative. And it makes it useless for modeling since you don't know how it will behave once the competitor is present.

On the 90% capture rate, where does that figure come from (And please don't say you read it on x)?

[Occam's Retard @ObsvRetardation]

So using IQVIA numbers foundayo is trending to around 45% of incremental oral share. Again don't know how Novo CEO is claiming that oral wegovy is getting 90%.

[Occam's Retard @ObsvRetardation]

I also don't know how he is getting this stat that they are grabbing 90% of incremental oral share. That's incompatible with the other data that's out there.

[Occam's Retard @ObsvRetardation]

Got some at $220.40. small starter position

[Occam's Retard @ObsvRetardation]

$AXSM breakout in progress maybe. Just triggered my alert. Will watch. No position yet.

[Occam's Retard @ObsvRetardation]

Trying to buy some in afterhours

[Occam's Retard @ObsvRetardation]

$NVO $lly I'm not seeing this show up on my timeline for some reason so I am just going to repost it here. Comparison of some AEs between ubt 251 p1 data vs retatrutide p1 and p2 data. Higher rate of skin sensations and myalgia signal that did not show up in any of the reta data

https://t.co/yanuD2tXjz

[Occam's Retard @ObsvRetardation]

Ubt251 fwiw dose-dependent UTIs (see the same from retatrutide), but also myalgia which I don't think I've seen before. $NVO $lly

[Occam's Retard @ObsvRetardation]

@JanProsek4 what are the capture rates for each? On the other countries, yeah that could be it but it would be kind of weird to brag about taking more share in a country where your competitor hasn't even launched yet.

[Occam's Retard @ObsvRetardation]

@Idomeneus_OG Same

[Occam's Retard @ObsvRetardation]

Ubt251 fwiw dose-dependent UTIs (see the same from retatrutide), but also myalgia which I don't think I've seen before. $NVO $lly

[Occam's Retard @ObsvRetardation]

@JCanNuSH @bioinvestor24 @ResearchPulse1 A1, A2, A3 = 1mg, 1->3mg, 1->3->6mg, respectively

[Occam's Retard @ObsvRetardation]

Comparison of skin and msk AE rates (UBT251 was dose-dependent, reta didn't necessarily see highest incidence at highest exposure)

[Occam's Retard @ObsvRetardation]

No myalgia or any search hits for musculoskeletal in reta p2

[Occam's Retard @ObsvRetardation]

@emmaluvcherries Can confirm big weiner + beginning to bald unfortunately

[Occam's Retard @ObsvRetardation]

hey @FiercePharma why can't you just give the actual numbers in tabular form without all the ridiculous narrative and word problems?

[Occam's Retard @ObsvRetardation]

The only reason why $hims sell any dick pills. getting bombarded by their ads on fiercepharma lol. Cut back on ad spend and say goodbye to your business

[Occam's Retard @ObsvRetardation]

@theodore_invest Shut the fuck up bitch

[Occam's Retard @ObsvRetardation]

@rn_flex @ResearchPulse1 Longer if they have to run multiple trials

[Occam's Retard @ObsvRetardation]

@rn_flex @ResearchPulse1 I think it would be later than 2030. Suppose they start enrolling mid next year, how long will it take them to fully enroll, 10 or 12 months? Si mid 2028. Then topline data in early 2030. Submission maybe in late 2030. depending on how badly they drag. Approval in late 2031.